Yeah, and some people seem to just not understand probabilities

Brutal, I still have PTSD from this game 😭

Would've used the Kalshi image but it's not as clear that this was hanging at the lowest possible price (1c) for a while, Kalshi needs to fix their graphs since 1c looks like 10c on this

Election Twitter / non-bettors shocked that a -400 position lost cannot comprehend the pain of watching Cavs +6.5 lose in game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals

They do xitter.cf/SteveFlanders22/status…

That's the wrong conclusion to draw from this

This is why I should have bids up for more free stuff, surely the free squares won’t commit murder while I’m asleep right

Thanks for the Kalshi discounts

???

Regarding the second half of that - if you’re under the assumption SIG / market makers are struggling to win overall, you’re wrong

Routinely getting 10-20% EV per boost and maxes were $50 before dropping to $25, so not bad

If we lose FTD markets I’m gonna be very sad

Bang!

Yeah pretty wild, you’d think this is a market they’d know how to not get picked off on. Wonder how good the subsidies are as the PMs love non-sports volume so it must be good even if they’re ok with taking a loss here in the short term window

Congrats 📈

This is why Pratt 30c was a great play and CA Gov R 4c is an even better spot! /s

👀

About month and a half later, it seems Novig has pulled the plug on offering profit boosts at the request of the CFTC, an unsurprising outcome unfortunately

👀 Watch out for this team

Foolproof method