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Our final call with @YouGov for the French présidentielle: 56% Macron 44% Le Pen. But in 2017, he won 66% / 34%. Far from exorcising the spectre of the far-right as promised, Macron’s presidency has supercharged it, fracturing the republican front. Too close for comfort:

Most of Macron’s rise is now coming from more left-wing Mélenchon voters holding their nose & voting to stop Le Pen, while fewer of Mélenchon’s left-behind voters are opting for Le Pen tactically to get rid of Macron. +10% for Macron and -6% for Le Pen among this group in a week:

As the @NewStatesman note in their piece, Macron seems to be improving slightly with rural & non-university educated voters, two large groups with whom he has been slipping underwater. But he's far from safe. Next week's debate will be crucial. @idvck - newstatesman.com/internation…

The biggest uncertainties remain turnout, and what Mélenchon’s voters and undecideds do. Expectations that Macron will win could depress turnout among the left and left-behind, who mostly dislike the president. Still a quarter of Mélenchon voters > Le Pen: xitter.cf/DatapraxisEU/status/15…

Macron is in a slightly stronger position going into Easter. Having watered down his unpopular retirement reforms and signalled to the left he needs them, he's improved his numbers a little among key groups such as rural and lower-educated voters. But it should not be this close.

For French readers, the full Libération piece is attached, along with their accompanying frontpage:

Macron's weaknesses have serious consequences for his ability to win over left/ left-behind/ switched-off swing voters who will decide 2nd round. Le Pen has a 32% net advantage among her reserves (the people on the fence who could come out for her and boost her above Macron):

Le Pen leads Macron by 25% net on "stands up for people like me" - only 19% think this of him, while 37% think it of her, and a stunning 57% disagree that the President stands up for people like them:

But much more serious are the fundamentals. Le Pen now leads Macron by 18% net on "good ideas for the future" - her positives are higher and her negatives lower, reflecting the success of her cost-of-living and detoxification campaign:

This is our first round polling from last week, just released. 27% Macron / 25% Le Pen, within margin of error. Mélenchon behind on 15%. All the pollsters show the race narrowing, Kantar also has round1 within 2%, round2 polling unreliable but closing fast xitter.cf/DatapraxisEU/status/15…

Our polling shows Le Pen within 2% of Macron in the 1st round, closing fast. In my interview with @Liberation today, I say France 2022 reminds me of Clinton-Trump & Brexit. The fundamentals favour her; he seems tone-deaf. Read it here, data thread follows liberation.fr/politique/elec…