Facts and Warm Takes about America's Team
Joined June 2021
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My #31 is Dylan Ray. Fangraphs called him velocity-dependent. Not a coincidence that he had a great deal of success late in the year in the bullpen in shorter stints when his velo was up to 96.8.
Already of the 40-man roster, he’s already on the shortlist for a major league spot when an arm is needed.
My #32 Spencer Giesting. Drafted in the 11th round, but as is standard for 11th rounders, paid more, like a 5th rounder in this case.
Was a crafty lefty with 5 pitches, some good spin rates, but gained velo this year after moving to the bullpen and kept getting better all year. Has to be added to the 40-man roster, so he’ll be in the big leagues sooner than later.
I keep seeing these kinds of posts. The other day we had one of the smallest groups. Today it’s one of the biggest.
And from real sources.
Not sure what to make of it.
For my old friends at @BaseballAmerica, I compiled the sizes of each team’s scouting staff.
Note that many teams frequently renowned for their technology and analytics (Dodgers, Rays, Brewers) also have some of the largest scouting staffs in MLB.
baseballamerica.com/stories/…
My # 33, Yu-Min Lin. A top 100 guy by Baseball Prospectus in’24 because he posted some elite numbers when he first came to the US as a teenager. As he climbed the ladder, he struggled some, as pitchers often do in Amarillo and Reno and dropped off the prospect radar. Classic underrated D’Backs prospect. Still 5+ years young for AAA, pitching in Reno (i.e., the moon) but clicking “late.”
OK fastball, loud delivery, but elite secondaries with great spin rates. Wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the bigs next year.
Super toolsy outfielder who was drafted in June ’25, but Tommy John surgery delayed his start to August ‘26. Flashed in Visalia, and is in the AZ Fall League, with mostly AA and AAA guys.
Evaluating DSL guys is weird. They can't sign until they're 16, but they come to agreements to sign years before. It's understandable to be wrong about a 14-year old kid's future.
So even tho Villarroel was almost an afterthought on signing day, he's already jumping off the page with a .985 OPS, the next in a long line of great, often undersized, catchers that the D'Backs are developing.
My # 36 is Connor Foley, a RHP drafted out of Indiana. He got 3rd round money when we drafted him. He is a high ceiling/low floor possible closer who struck out 16 per 9 (!!) this year, which was 14th best in all of the minor leagues for guys with 20+ IP.
legendsondeck.com/arizona-di…
I love these lists, and I love BA, but if your stuff+ model has the Mariners and Braves this bad, it might need to be reconfigured. "Stuff" is hard to measure/quantify, but it seems unlikely that the Mariners went from the universally best pitching development org to the worst.
The top farm systems in terms of org-wide Stuff+ scores?
1. Rays
2. Yankees
3. Mets
4. Dodgers
5. Nationals
New farm system Statcast rankings:
baseballamerica.com/stories/…
Described as “raw and gangly,” by Fangraphs, he is notable for trying to be the first Orthodox Jew to make the big leagues. springtraining.jou.ufl.edu/2… But with his electric potential, his unique background could become more of a footnote than a headline.
This is surprising - I guess we're doing more with less? But it would be nice to see if beefing up the nerd staff helped. It's cheaper than adding to the major league payroll and couldn't hurt.
My # 38 - Sawyer Hawks.
Relief pitchers with no pedigree virtually never get ranked, which is weird because they're every bit or more as impactful as any other player. But still, that's how this works.
Having said that, Hawks made Fangraphs preseason list last year because they were too scared he's going to find his way to the big leagues. And he killed it in Hillsboro after that.
My # 39 is Paul Schoenfeld, an 8th rounder out of West Virginia.
Prospect ranking is basically pedigree (draft spot) x early success. Schoenfeld has no pedigree - an 8th round college guy who wasn't on BA or Pipeline's pre-draft list (BA goes out to 500). And his limited professional wasn't *that* good (it was pretty good). But watching him, he was electric. So, a bit of a personal cheeseball but whatever.
DBacks Factoids retweeted
Known for his high-octane heater and tight-breaking cutter, Patrick Forbes is adding a new weapon to his arsenal.
The #Dbacks' No. 11 prospect -- the 29th overall pick in 2025 -- has showcased a sweeper in the early going this fall: atmlb.com/484nlZG
ALT An image of Patrick Forbes throwing a pitch. He is wearing a gray D-backs uniform and black Salt River Rafters cap
This is the reason some sort of payroll equity is needed. Sure, every few years a low budget team can win. But over time, the rich teams do much better.
We give so much credit to the Rays, most of which is fair. But their biggest piece was gifted to them by the biggest stroke of luck.
After the 2021 season, before the Rule 5 draft, the Rays made Tobias Myers (on the fringe of making 40-man roster) available with the Guardians being the only team interested
The Rays asked for four different Guardians players but Cleveland insisted they would only trade one prospect for Myers
The Rays were in a roster crunch so when negotiations whittled down to just Junior Caminero they accepted
In 2022 the Guardians severed ties with Myers, essentially giving the Rays Junior Caminero for nothing
(nytimes.com/athletic/7691299…)
Yassel Soler is my #40.
Keep in mind the ages of these prospects. The D'Backs promote guys pretty aggressively, especially international guys. So guys like Soler (& Jose Fernandez) don't always dominate in the Minors, but that doesn't mean they won't become good big leaguers.
I need an offseason project considering the offseason is going to last a year or two. So here's my crack at a top 40, individual write-ups to follow.
Obviously leveling the playing field would make things more fair & give more teams a chance more often. That’s a fact. $ correlates w/ w’s. Not 100%, but a lot.
The argument is the results aren’t *that* unfair, and that parity is overrated. See the Premier League’s popularity
The “MLB has no parity” take is one of the laziest in sports.
Last 20 years of champions:
• MLB: 12 different World Series winners
• NFL: 13
• NBA: 12
• NHL: 13
And MLB went *24 straight years* without a repeat champion (until the Dodgers finally did it in 2025). No other major league has come close to that streak.
Cubs ended 108 years. White Sox 88. Rangers first title. Royals, Nationals, etc. all got theirs.
Salary caps in the other sports didn’t magically create more different champs. Baseball’s October chaos did. The “buy a title” narrative keeps dying in the playoffs.
Parity exists. You just have to look past the payroll spreadsheets.
Facts over feelings
