Got my third badge for reaching the top 1% of daily performers in the @FT stock picking game 🏆🏆🏆 The portfolio is up 4.9% since the start and ranked 212 of 13,584 portfolios in today’s snapshot. Today wasn’t its best day. @EQTCorp was the biggest loser but @MarathonPetroCo and @ValeroEnergy helped offset it. @Muse is running the virtual portfolio using @QuotientHQ’s event forecasts and @RobinhoodApp’s stock data. It’s still holding 20% in cash after reducing the airline positions. I’ve been working with Muse to find other opportunities that could justify putting some of that cash to work. It has identified some candidates beyond energy, including banks and brokerages. No new positions yet, but it feels like progress. It’s been super fun connecting Q’s event forecasts to what they could mean for a company, checking what its share price already reflects, and figuring out how much of the portfolio to put behind it. I’m also learning how much of this work I can hand over to an agent and where I still need to get involved. More to figure out, but it feels good to get some recognition. I’ll take the badges :) Virtual portfolio. It’s a game. No real money involved. NFA. DYOR.

Day 4 of my @FT stock picking game experiment and holy shit I’m ranked 43 out of 11,716 portfolios. Up 4.41% since the game started w/ @MarathonPetroCo and @ValeroEnergy accounting for ~87% of today's gain. Here’s what makes this interesting. Both companies make fuels, including diesel. @Muse included them because @QuotientHQ’s forecasts pointed to high diesel prices, which could help their profits. Q’s September 30 forecast gave US diesel above $6.10 a gallon on October 31 an 89% chance. Q's October 6 forecast lowered that to 55.5% as prices fell and more supply looked possible. So the forecast weakened, the stocks rose, and Muse kept 35% of my portfolio in them. 🧐 That’s what I’m digging into now. What supports keeping that much invested, and how did the rules I gave Muse affect its choice? tldr- Happy with the gains. Still improving the setup to make the most of Q’s event forecasts beyond prediction markets.