Deuce

3 Home Runs plays for today: 1. Junior Caminero Caminero’s Statcast profile supports the matchup: 92.9 mph average EV, 50.3% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate. His 79.8 mph average bat speed and 19.7% blast-per-swing rate are also among MLB’s leaders.

Yankees-Giants quick props breakdown - Aaron Judge going hitless again is not how I’d bet it. He went 0-for-5 with 4 strikeouts in the opener, but he’s also had previous success against Robbie Ray, including 3-for-8 with 3 homers and the Yankees are expected to lean into a more right-handed look against Ray. That makes Judge 1+ hit more of a bounce-back anchor than a trap. - The Yankees also tagged Logan Webb for 7 runs in Game 1 even with Judge doing nothing, which tells me the lineup depth is real, but it is still unlikely that “every Yankee hits except Judge” repeats in the same way. That is why I prefer Judge hit plus two Yankees 2+ HRR legs rather than overstacking random Yankees singles. In the opener, New York won 7-0 and got multi-hit or run-producing games from Stanton, Wells, Caballero, McMahon and others. - Amed Rosario 2+ HRR is my favorite non-star Yankees leg. Against a lefty like Ray, he fits the game script well, is at a friendlier number (-135) than Judge(-195)/Goldschmidt (-165) while still giving multiple paths: 2 hits, hit+run, hit+RBI, or walk-driven traffic around him. - Cody Bellinger 2+ HRR works because if the Yankees get to Ray again, Bellinger is one of the cleaner middle-path legs. He doesn’t need a homer to cash; a single plus run plus RBI gets there. In 2025, Ray posted a .300 xwOBA allowed and .385 xSLG allowed, I’m comfortable taking a couple Yankees production legs rather than chasing total bases. - On the Giants side, I do not want to assume they get blanked again. Cam Schlittler is starting Game 2, and while he’s regarded well, he is still a younger arm facing a Giants lineup that should be less dead than it looked in the opener. The second-game correction angle is why I want one Giants production leg instead of a Yankees-only stack. Schlittler is the listed starter today. - Jung Hoo Lee 2+ HRR is the Giants leg I like most at the price (-120). He’s one of the better contact-profile bats on their side, and he’s less all-or-nothing than some of the other Giants options. He can get there with a single and a run, or two hits, without needing the whole lineup to explode.

Opening Day is where people overthink everything I kept it simple 5 hitters I trust to get a hit today 👉 open.substack.com/pub/shifts… #MLB #OpeningDay #GamblingX