Differentiators Data

#ncpol early voting day 22 v 26. differentiatordata.com/2026-…

If #NCPOL follows #VAPOL - Who’s at risk in '26? Today's @differentdata newsletter looks at @ncgop #ncga seats the @NCDemParty could flip in '26 in a blue wave election similar to VA '25. We see 4 danger zone seats, 1 at risk and 3 seats to watch. Newsletter link in next post.

This week's edition of our newsletter details PAC contributions in 2024 and the first half of 2025, and maps Roy Cooper's first statewide election: icont.ac/5161D Sign up for the newsletter or inquire about subscriptions at differentiatordata.com #ncpol

2/ This memo outlines the major findings.

"Democrats were undoubtedly expecting a bad outcome... But the release today of proposed map CBP-5, even by NC’s brass knuckled redistricting standards, is a particularly savage assault on Democratic electoral prospects for the remainder of this decade." #ncga #ncpol

A couple of snapshots: "This map creates 10 likely Republican seats, three likely Democratic seats and one competitive seat that might very slightly favor the Democrats in 2024 but is in an area of the state that is shifting quickly toward the GOP." #ncpol #ncga

New for subscribers: Data sets, analysis and ratings for both NC Congressional district plans filed today in #ncga #ncpol differentiatordata.com/new-c…

And finally, we tested a potential #vagov #vapol primary between Lt. Gov Sears and AG Jason Miyares. Voters view both favorably, but Sears leads by a wide margin. Read more on the survey, including toplines and tabs, here: differentiatordata.com/virgi…

Importantly, DeSantis support grows with every demographic in a head-to-head race with Trump. Trump has a firm base of support but is unlikely to grow his vote share as the field narrows. DeSantis, on the other hand, stands to benefit greatly as the field shrinks #vapol #vagov

DeSantis leads Trump in most parts of Virginia in the multi-candidates race and in all parts of the state in a head-to-head race. #vapol #vagov

BUT #vapol #vagov primary voters don't back Youngkin for president. The primary is a two-horse race between DeSantis and Donald Trump, with DeSantis holding a narrow lead on the multi-candidate ballot. In a head-to-head contest, DeSantis beats Trump by 17 and Youngkin by 38.

#vapol #vagov Virginia GOP primary voters love Governor Youngkin. 87% view Youngkin favorably, and his net 78% image rating is better than any other candidate we tested. The only politician close to Youngkin's popularity is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Just for the fun of it, we tested a hypothetical matchup for Attorney General: Forsyth County DA Jim O'Neill, who sought the AG's office in 2020 and 2016, trailed Congressman Dan Bishop 20%-13%. #ncpol

In the #ncpol gubernatorial race, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson holds commanding leads over three rumored/prospective opponents. Robinson, with a 55% favorable to 8% unfavorable image rating, leads with every major demographic group and in every region of the state.

To celebrate, we conducted a statewide #ncpol poll of GOP primary voters exploring what could happen in 2024. In the presidential race, Ron DeSantis enjoys a better image rating than Donald Trump and a 21-point lead over the former president. The Donald's run appears to be over.

NEW POLL🧵: We're excited to officially launch our polling services today and introduce the new Director of Differentiators Data, Amanda Finelli. Amanda has extensive policy and political experience, and holds a Ph.D. focused in political philosophy. #ncpol

Yesterday's @JohnLockeNC poll showed Republicans leading by 12 points (51%-39%) on the #NCGA generic ballot, likely the largest GOP advantage on record. #NCPOL