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New publication! Combating WMD in the Middle East
Read my paper with @UNIDIR to see how Arab states, Iran, and Israel are adjusting their WMD policies to regional security dynamics and military trends.
THREAD on key findings and policy options/ 1 unidir.org/publication/comba…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
"Israeli intelligence officials understood the nature of the govt they were dealing with: a repressive state with a documented record of arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and executions. Yet, according to Barnea’s own account, they deliberately sought to exploit those very practices, making ordinary Iranians the expendable human cost of protecting their operatives".
What former Mossad chief David Barnea has revealed is a shocking admission of an intelligence operation that knowingly put 1000s of innocent Iranians at risk of imprisonment, torture, and execution, all to protect Israeli agents operating inside Iran. According to @Jerusalem_Post, Barnea acknowledged that Mossad deliberately publicized footage of its covert operations inside Iran during the June 2025 war, intending to provoke mass arrests and overwhelm Iranian security forces.
“We wanted to make sure they arrested so many people in Iran that they wouldn’t be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff,” he said.
Barnea claimed that Iranian authorities arrested 21,000 people on the 2nd day of the war. He also acknowledged that many of those arrested or executed as alleged Mossad agents had nothing to do with the agency, while nearly all actual Mossad operatives escaped capture.
Think about the extraordinary cruelty of that calculation.
Israeli intelligence officials understood the nature of the govt they were dealing with: a repressive state with a documented record of arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and executions. Yet, according to Barnea’s own account, they deliberately sought to exploit those very practices, making ordinary Iranians the expendable human cost of protecting their operatives.
I think about the 1000s of families who may have been caught between an Israeli intelligence operation and an Iranian security apparatus gripped by fear of infiltration. The fathers and mothers of whose children disappeared into detention centers. The young people whose only political involvement may have been protesting for a better life. The students, workers, and ordinary citizens who could suddenly find themselves accused of collaborating with a foreign intelligence service.
For them, an arrest is not a temporary inconvenience in an intelligence game. It can mean months or years in prison, torture, a coerced confession, a destroyed future, or a death sentence.
Human rights organizations have documented how Iranian authorities used the war to intensify repression, including mass arrests and executions on allegations of espionage and collaboration with Israel.
The Iranian government bears direct responsibility for every arbitrary arrest, every act of torture, and every unlawful execution. Nothing Israel did absolves Tehran of those crimes.
But Israel cannot escape scrutiny and accountability for deliberately engineering conditions in which it knew innocent people could become targets of that repression.
What Barnea describes is not simply clever intelligence work. It raises profound questions about the deliberate exploitation of foreseeable harm to civilians in pursuit of military and intelligence objectives.
And perhaps the most disturbing part is the apparent indifference to what happened to those people afterward.
For Mossad, the measure of success was whether its agents survived and escaped detection. For Iranian families, the consequences could last a lifetime.
The lives of ordinary Iranians are not disposable assets in an intelligence operation. Their imprisonment, suffering, and deaths cannot be dismissed as the acceptable price of protecting foreign agents..
International humanitarian law does not give intelligence agencies a free pass to deliberately expose civilians to foreseeable harm. If Mossad intentionally provoked mass arrests in Iran, knowing that innocent people could face torture, imprisonment, or execution, this raises serious questions of international legal responsibility, including potential complicity in war crimes. As I said, Iranian government bears direct responsibility for its repression, but that does not absolve Israeli officials of responsibility for deliberately exploiting it. The lives of innocent civilians cannot be treated as expendable assets in an intelligence operation.
This revelation deserves serious scrutiny, independent investigation. jpost.com/middle-east/iran-n…
An influential hardliner party, Paydari, is demanding Iran’s exit from NPT and review of military doctrine.
It reflects a united position among Paydari members and their possible attempt to push the system internally in this direction. Only war could have make this happen!
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
As fears of another war grow, calls for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons are gaining ground in Tehran. Could a bomb prevent next attacks, or invite one?
My latest analysis for BBC Persian.
Thanks to @Divsallar his insights.
bbc.com/persian/articles/cvn…
استفاده آمریکا از سلاح اتمی در ایران یک شایعه و اطلاعات غلط است.
استدلال نظامی برای چنین کاربردی وجود ندارد. نشانه ای نیز از طرح چنین ایدهای در لایه های نظامی-سیاسی امریکا نیست. و من هم تاکنون کارشناس نظامی بین المللی مطلع/مستقلی را ندیده ام که چنین نگرانی را تایید کند. /۱
🆘لطفا برای اطلاع و آگاهی خودتون و اطرافیان تان ببینید و نشر بدهید.
🆘در صورت هر نوع انفجار هسته ای و چنانچه نزدیک به محل حادثه باشیم (حداقل ۱ تا ۵ کیلومتر) چه باید کرد!
instagram.com/reel/DezliszOc…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
How many times will these NEOCONS cough @Geo_papic cough try the same thing thinking this time will be different?? The answer my friend is blowing in the strait
US officials cited here think that an intense, brief (as in, a few days) air campaign will push Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program.
These predictions have been made before. They have proven incorrect. Iran is broadly signaling it is ready for an attack, that it expects one, and will retaliate aggressively.
Trump has yet to make a decision. nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon:
Iran was illegitimately attacked, whatever you may think of its government.
Just because you don't like a government doesn't give you the right to besiege it, bomb everything around it, and destroy its schools, roads and bridges.
That's what the Americans did.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
گفتگوی فنی و دقیق بین @Divsallar و @Mfazeli114 در مورد بازدارندگی هستهای و امکان ساخت سلاح هستهای توسط جمهوریاسلامی.
ویژگی درخشان این بحث دوری از هیجان و احساسات و تکیه محض بر رویکرد استراتژیک و آکادمیک است، که روال معمول در رسانههای فارسی زبان نیست.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E?si=_CsW…
This is a shocking news. One of the best Saudi experts in the field and a truly amazing person and colleague. A person who was respected and loved by everyone I know in the expert community. May god bless him.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
My first @CrisisGroup commentary:
How War is Reshaping #Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Three years of hostilities have transformed Tehran’s network of allies in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is now relying more heavily on itself, while adapting its relationships with partners whose diminished military utility has not necessarily reduced its commitment to their protection.
crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
گفتوگو با #حمیدرضا_عزیزی از اندیشکده #گروه_بحران درباره #محور_مقاومت و آینده جنگ.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
حمیدرضا عزیزی متخصص مطالعات منطقهای با تمرکز بر #محور_مقاومت است. او در کتابش با عنوان «محور مقاومت» چگونگی شکلگیری شبکه نیروهای محور مقاومت، نسبت آنها با ایران، سازوکارهای عمل آن و تحولاتش بهمثابه شبکه بازدارندگی و مقاومت را تحلیل میکند.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Iran’s precision strikes picked apart Gulf infrastructure, blunting US war plans - reuters.com/investigations/i…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
An important part of the speech of Qatar's Emir yesterday was the transparency and honesty with which he describes the situation for the region
There should be no illusion that things will just bounce back to how things were in February 2026 - the Gulf will have to bounce forward into a new post-American reality
This also means there is an urgent need for a regional solution to a regional problem, with reciprocity and inclusion, involving the GCC, Iran and others
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
As it stands, the Iran war was really bad for everyone except Russia.
New: Trump administration has warned Ukraine and allies in Europe that the US could suspend intelligence sharing and European purchases of US weapons for Ukraine if Kyiv does not halt its deep strikes on Russian energy facilities, two European offcials tell CNN. (Confirming FT’s story with some additional details). cnn.com/2026/10/11/politics/…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Looking forward to every country that signed this pledge condemning the U.S. blockades against Iran and Cuba, which represent both “discriminatory limits on the passage of ships through such waterways in a manner inconsistent with international law” and a “coercive or unilateral action seeking to undermine or circumvent the international order based on international law as reflected in the UNCLOS.”
International navigation must remain open to everyone, not to whoever can pay.
Today, 60 countries pledged to oppose tolls or fees on international shipping routes by joining our “No Fees, No Tolls” global pledge.
This is a clear diplomatic signal to all those who seek to hijack waterways for their own gain.
I want to thank all the countries who signed up and invite others to join us.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Saudi Arabia faces no good options with the Houthis. Military escalation was inevitable and is likely to continue - but it will hurt Saudi Arabia more than the Houthis. Negotiations are inevitable too - though not in the short term. The Houthis hold stronger cards, and they know it; their goal will be to extract maximal concessions from Saudi Arabia, which remains reluctant to pay this very high price.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
It's been truly surreal to see groups like @Kpler & others to stake their credibility on Trump’s claims of Hormuz “normalization” as tankers are being blown up, freight rates hit $1.4M a day and Trump literally has to cut a diesel *deal* with Putin to ease the crisis.
Something that many warned before is now prevailing. Attacking Iran is a mother of regional war.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
The war in Yemen is escalating, and wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and increasingly airports will soon make this war even bigger, and if US-Iran war resumes, Yemen-Saudi conflict will become a hot front in that war. The Middle East is on the edge of a much larger region-wide war
Breaking News: At least 12 people were killed and 50 more were injured in a Houthi attack on an airport in the Saudi capital, officials said. The strike was the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February. nyti.ms/4hGWLvt




























