Just used @whop. A Boomer and first time putting myself out there. May never generate anything but I got it done
@abearsomewhere
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Need @PunterJeff and his PIDE
S@Z retweeted
Theoretical arbitrage between $MSTR and $STRK
(A ways down the road)...
Everyone forgets that $STRK exists. People will remember it when MSTR hits $200, then $300, then $400 etc.
Now that the ATM capacity has been reduced on $STRK from $21B to $2.1B, it is clear Strategy does not prioritize it as the primary way to accumulate Bitcoin.
Therefore, STRK, which has no call provisions, will become a "scarce" security in Strategy's capital stack.
It will likely never convert into $MSTR, since holders will always be losing the dividend premium if they take receipt of the MSTR shares. Furthermore, the senior liquidation preference is a nice protection which is not offered to the $MSTR holder.
What does this mean?
Well, STRK today is valued at it's option adjusted credit spread, and as MSTR rises, this pushes the value of the instrument up as well.
STRK's trading volume is so thin relative to that of MSTR, it has the potential to "squeeze" much higher when it's fair value changes based on MSTR price. If Strategy is unwilling to issue more STRK, then the market may find itself in a temporary "mis-pricing" of this instrument relative to the common.
It becomes rich.
Obviously traders will come in and short STRK down to what they believe is it's fair value based on the $1000 call and the dividend.
In such an environment, these shorts will have to pay $STRK holders to borrow the shares, further increasing the effective yield on STRK.
And this will likely happen in a rising Bitcoin environment.
Therefore, I think there will be a window of time, where the STRK price decouples aggressively above it's "fair value" until it's volume increases significantly and large shorts can come into the instrument.
If you have MSTR price targets of $500+, I believe STRK is an overlooked long.
Much like owning a treasury co that doesn't issue shares, which has the real possibility of "MNAV expansion."
Listening to Balearic Blue (Remastered) by Blank & Jones on @PandoraMusic
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S@Z retweeted
Replying to @dwidoo7
Good question. That could be another 3000 word article. Under most circumstances, within this kind of options framework, you should be able to treat it as 1/10 MSTR AND a $100 notional credit instrument at the same time.
So if you wanted to delta hedge, you'd find 1/10 MSTR per share of STRK and compute the BTC delta.
Then as a short put + bond, you could hedge it like you would a share of STRC.
The tricky part is that because it is hybrid, it is partially a long call and fully a short put at the same time.




















