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everyone is arguing whether spacex at $2 trillion is too expensive, almost nobody noticed what actually changed since 1980
apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue back then
spacex wants you to buy at nearly $2 trillion and 100 times revenue now
but the real story is not the price, it is that the entire nature of an IPO changed underneath us
in 1980 you bought a business and hoped for a vision, in 2026 you buy the vision and hope for the business
almost nobody buying this IPO on june 12 will read the 300 page document to understand which one they are actually getting
i fed both filings to Claude and had it find the five differences that explain the whole shift
that understanding is the edge most retail will never bother to get
John Doe retweeted
Tehcscreener built a dedicated StonkFun dashboard.
Every coin, tracked independently.
Live now.
Stonk (@LaunchOnSF) is now verified on Tehcscreener
check it out: tehcscreener.com/pad/solana/…
John Doe retweeted
Added more $stonk. Chart setting higher lows and higher high in progress. Revenue back on uptrend.
stonkfun is about to cross $100M paid out to holders
$97.83M so far. that's zec, nvidia, gold and btc sent straight to people holding coins launched on the pad
pace in the last few days: ~$280k a day
at that rate $100M lands in about a week
now look at $stonk:
mcap ~$104M
the pad is about to pay its users roughly what the whole token is worth
and that's not the revenue that backs stonk. that's on top of it
revenue goes to buybacks. yesterday alone: $198k revenue, 972k stonk burned
so the holders of the coins get paid, and stonk holders get the burns
most launchpads take from their users
this one has paid them $97M and counting
the $100M headline is coming this week. i'd rather be positioned before it than after
the best entries never feel good
when everything is clear, btc trending, revenue up, ct bullish, you feel confident buying. but by then that confidence is already in the price
the discount only exists while nobody knows what happens next
$stonk right now:
btc chopping between 75k and 80k
weekend revenue dipped
half of ct says the launchpad meta is dead, the other half says pump wins the stocks war
nobody is sure. that's exactly why it's at $93M and not $300M
last week was the same. stonk at $71M, timeline writing obituaries. 3 days later it was +50%
the day it's obvious again, revenue back above $150k, btc breaking out, trenches full, you won't get this price
you don't get paid for being right when everyone agrees. you get paid for buying when nobody does
stonkfun revenue dropped to $61k on saturday. lowest day in weeks, not going to pretend otherwise
so i checked if it's a stonk problem or a market problem
pons revenue over the same week:
$79k → $74k → $62k → $55k → $37k
cut in half in 5 days
pump went from $1.69M to $1.15M a day
the whole launchpad sector cooled off, not just stonk
now the part that matters:
last 7 days stonkfun made $858k
pons made $410k
stonk earned 2x more and still trades at $93M
pons trades at $154M
on a yearly basis that's ~2x revenue for stonk vs ~7x for pons
slow days happen to every pad. the question is what you're paying for each dollar it makes
and $stonk is still the cheapest one by far
launchpad tokens got hit today
$pump -7%, $pons -10%, $stonk -14%
so i checked what you're actually paying for each one
took last 7 days of revenue on defillama and annualized it:
stonkfun: ~$50M/yr revenue, $87M mcap → 1.7x
pump: ~$530M/yr revenue, $1.95B mcap → 3.7x
pons: ~$23M/yr revenue, $154M mcap → 6.8x
stonk is the cheapest of the three by a mile. pons costs 4x more per dollar of revenue
and the cheapest one got sold the hardest today
pump has the size and the 2 year track record, fair enough to pay more for it
pons is the one i can't explain. revenue down 4 days straight and still priced at almost 7x
revenue doesn't care about red candles. yesterday stonkfun did $161k, one of its best days this week
if the market starts pricing launchpads on revenue again, the gap between 1.7x and 6.8x doesn't last
looked at who actually sold $stonk on the way down from $317M
fish and dolphin wallets net sold $5.5M
whales net sold just $492k
the small wallets did most of the dumping
the whale side is more interesting. old whales who bought under $40M took profit and left. new whales stepped in with a cost basis above $100M
79% of top holders are underwater right now. 70% of them haven't sold a single coin
and someone is twapping in as we speak
this is what a reset looks like. weak hands are out, and the new big money is sitting in red and not moving
one more thing people miss:
stonkfun has paid $95.7M to holders of the coins launched on it
stonk itself is worth ~$91M
the pad has already given away more than the market prices it at
the sellers are gone. the ones left are waiting for $100M+ to break even, and they're not in a rush
data via @SunFlowSolana
market's bleeding again. most of you are just staring at red bags waiting for a bounce
on stonkfun your bags pay you while you wait
hold $zcat or $mask → you get zec
hold $si → you get nvidia (nvdax)
other coins pay out in gold and btc
$15M+ in zec alone already sent to holders
and $stonk sits on top of all of it. every trade on every one of these coins feeds the buybacks. 619k stonk burned yesterday on a red day
you can wait for the bounce and get paid in real assets while you do
$stonk is $107M now. +50% from the lows in 3 days
what i keep looking at:
the biggest holder watched his $12M profit melt to $3.4M and didn't sell a single token
whales from other ecosystems (zcat, fartcoin) started buying at $87-98M
832k stonk burned yesterday, 982k the day before. supply keeps shrinking while price climbs
the one thing i'm watching: other pads like $otc are doing similar daily fees at a fraction of the mcap. if launches keep moving there, stonk has to fight for it
for now the pad is still earning, still burning, and the people with the most to lose are holding
bottom was in. now it's about whether revenue keeps up with price
$stonk +30% from the lows since this post
the market priced it like a dead pad while it was out-earning pons 3x
most people will notice at $150M. you saw it at $75M. follow for the next one
$STONK is down ~75% from its highs. here's why i'm still watching it.
last 30 days on defillama:
stonkfun: $20M revenue, $12M spent buying back $STONK
pons: $6M revenue, $5.4M in buybacks
stonk made 3x more and bought back 2x more.
yet pons trades at ~$190M and stonk at ~$75M.
21% of total $STONK supply is already burned. all paid for by revenue.
and the launchpad isn't dead. si, mask, zcat, the biggest runners on solana lately all came from stonk.
the risks:
volume cooled hard. last week stonk made ~$1M vs $20M for the month.
and point farm capital holds 40.9M $STONK (~5% of supply) on fomo. if he decides to sell, it's real pressure.
but if volume comes back to tokenized stocks, one more runner shows up, or the current ones start moving again, stonk won't lag behind.
the best narratives are the ones you can explain in one sentence.
"launch a coin paired with a real stock" is exactly that.
stonkfun built liquidity around tokenized equities, and i think that narrative can hit harder than the first wave did.
yesterday ct wrote stonk's obituary
"stonk died"
"revenue down 96% from ath"
same day stonkfun revenue doubled. $85k → $176k
buybacks $106k, highest in 5 days
week over week revenue is up too ($875k → $917k), first green week in a while
one day doesn't make a trend, i know. but this is how bottoms usually look
revenue stops falling first, price follows later
by the time the timeline notices, it's already 2x off the lows
watching the next few days closely. if revenue holds above $150k, the bottom is in
everyone on ct spent sunday calling blood monday. when the whole timeline agrees on a crash it rarely comes. real blood mondays show up when nobody's ready for them
so i started bidding $stonk lows instead
today it's +20% and this looks like the bottom to me
what i kept watching while it bled:
stonkfun did $35.3M revenue lifetime, $21.1M of it went straight into buybacks. thats ~25% of the current mcap already bought back
weekly revenue cooled hard ($5M → $1M), not hiding that. but buybacks didn't stop for a single day, still $50-130k daily even in the worst week
price dumped 70%+, the machine kept eating supply the whole way down. 21% of supply already burned
if tokenized stocks volume comes back, or one more runner hits on the pad, stonk catches up fast
rest of the ecosystem held better than i expected:
$si - biggest holder reportedly dumped his whole bag overnight and price barely moved. supply got absorbed
$mask - knocking on $50M again, buybacks + burns nonstop
i'm in all three, nfa
$STONK is down ~75% from its highs. here's why i'm still watching it.
last 30 days on defillama:
stonkfun: $20M revenue, $12M spent buying back $STONK
pons: $6M revenue, $5.4M in buybacks
stonk made 3x more and bought back 2x more.
yet pons trades at ~$190M and stonk at ~$75M.
21% of total $STONK supply is already burned. all paid for by revenue.
and the launchpad isn't dead. si, mask, zcat, the biggest runners on solana lately all came from stonk.
the risks:
volume cooled hard. last week stonk made ~$1M vs $20M for the month.
and point farm capital holds 40.9M $STONK (~5% of supply) on fomo. if he decides to sell, it's real pressure.
but if volume comes back to tokenized stocks, one more runner shows up, or the current ones start moving again, stonk won't lag behind.
the best narratives are the ones you can explain in one sentence.
"launch a coin paired with a real stock" is exactly that.
stonkfun built liquidity around tokenized equities, and i think that narrative can hit harder than the first wave did.
privacy coins are a $78B sector rn.
$ZEC alone: $19.6B
$XMR: $10.3B
$NEAR: $6.5B
meanwhile the #1 privacy protocol by revenue on defillama, ahead of tornado and railgun, is $MASK.
at ~$45M.
that's 0.06% of the sector.
zec is ~430x bigger.
not saying it gets there.
but one of these numbers looks very wrong.
