Too much time on my hands but with TRADES 2015-2025 and the common word used 'fleecing by Cats I asked AI to list all deals and rate them.
Score: 1 = heavily Geelong's way, 10 = fair (or other club won)
2015 Dangerfield in (ADEL): pick 9 + Gore for Danger + pick 50. 2/10. Restricted free agent going only to GEEL, Adelaide had no leverage.
2015 Henderson in (CARL): future first. 8/10. Full price for a role player.
2016 Tuohy in (CARL): Smedts, pick 63, future first for Tuohy + future second. 6/10. Fair, mild Cats win.
2016 Caddy out (RICH): Caddy + late pick for pick 24 + late pick. 10/10. Richmond won, two flags.
2017 Ablett in (GC): pick 19 + future second for Ablett, pick 24 (Tim Kelly) + a fourth. 5/10. Fair for a 33yo. Kelly was drafting, not trading.
2018 Rohan in (SYD): late pick. 6/10. Cheap and serviceable.
2019 Kelly out (WCE): Kelly + late picks for 14, 24, 33 + future first. 2/10. Biggest fleece of the lot, with GEEL as seller.
2019 Steven, Jenkins in: late picks. 9/10. Cost little, returned nothing.
2020 Cameron in (GWS): picks 13, 15, 20 + future fourth for Cameron + two future seconds. 3/10. Light for a Coleman medallist.
2020 Higgins in (NM): about pick 30. 8/10. Slight overpay.
2021 Jordan Clark out (FRE): pick 22 + future third. 10/10. Freo won clearly.
2022 Bowes + pick 7 in (GC): future third. 2/10. Suns salary dump, Bowes chose GEEL from several suitors.
2022 Bruhn in (GWS): pick 18. 7/10. Fair.
2022 Ollie Henry in (COLL): pick 25 + Cooper Stephens. 6/10. Fair.
2023 Ratugolea out (PORT): picks 25, 76, 94. 5/10. Slight Cats win.
2024 Bailey Smith in (WB): picks 17 + 38 for Smith + pick 45. 3/10. Under market, but post-ACL and nominated GEEL only.
2025 Curnow (missed): three firsts, no player. 4/10. Under market. Sydney paid Hayward, pick 11 + two future firsts.
2025 Marshall (missed): pick 19 + future second. 8/10. Fair offer, Saints refused for list reasons.
VERDICT: average about 6. Four genuine fleeces (Danger, Kelly sale, Bowes, Smith), four clear losses (Caddy, Clark, Higgins, Steven/Jenkins). The real edge is players nominating GEEL only, their "firsts" being pick 17-20, and never giving up a best-22 player. That last one cost them Curnow.
Note: older pick numbers approximate. #afltadeweek #GEELONG #AFLtrade #traderadio
Giving some serious thought to packing in w day trading +o/n momo. This year has been a brutal year of outlier losses many due to sizing in best plays and hitting a cold run , reversal gaps o/n and some CR and halts catching me out. Win rate actually increased to 59% overall but r/r has been smacked down to just 0.95r nett overall. Lot of work for little to no reward.





