@ECaliberSeven

25 | Elections Expert | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic | Substacker (Apparently)

 New Jersey, USA
decalibrate.substack.com/subscribe
Joined August 2019
  • Tweets9.9K
  • Following72
  • Followers19.4K
2.2KMedia
NEW from DeCalibrate: Suozzi Faces Every GOP Headwind Possible Jews swinging right. The wealthy hardly shifting left. Suozzi won by 4 mostly uncontested. Now Hochul’s set to lose NY-03 by more than Kamala, while Suozzi’s getting outspent. Could he lose? decalibrate.substack.com/p/a…
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Redbox Research, an outfit nobody has ever heard of, claiming to have a 3,000 person poll. It's the polling arm of "A Fight Worth Having," a random one-man blog. And the "How We Poll" page flags as 100% AI written in Pangram. And it claims to have conducted 30 polls at once.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker20248h
RedBox Research poll | 10/20-10/23 LV Ohio Governor 2026 🟦Amy Acton 48.2% 🟥Vivek Ramaswamy 43.8% (First poll fielded since the ad) Link to poll: afightworthhaving.com/pollin…
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Gee, I wonder why early-in person voting suddenly got SO much bluer at the same time mail votes seem to be getter redder? Critical thinking, folks.
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Every clickbaiter on this hellsite comparing early in person voting to previous years, go straight to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. This is the most OBVIOUSLY unpredictive thing of the cycle, for hecks sale.
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It really is sorely disappointing how easy it is to feed people utter BS, as long as it’s what they want to hear. People can genuinely get things wrong, myself included. But there are some folks here who ABSOLUTELY know better, and are churning out GARBAGE for clout.
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Ethan C7 retweeted
Pat Dennis
@patdennis17h
"people with different political views will magically come to my side on policy if i just phrase it with the right magic words" is a lie people tell themselves because they, understandably, don't want to live in a world where hard choices are necessary.
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An IE report from SLF, the big Senate GOP super PAC, that reveals the state of affairs in final 10 days. Spending in: SC ($978k) NE ($960k) KS ($720k) MS ($572k)
CATargetBot0001
@CATargetBot000115h
NEW FEC F24 SLF PAC $3,278,069-> #SCSEN #NESEN #KSSEN #MSSEN #AKSEN #NHSEN #MISEN #OHSEN #IASEN #MESEN docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for…
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Ethan C7 retweeted
philip lewis
@Phil_Lewis_15h
BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic has conceded defeat to a student-led movement in a seismic political shift.
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Periodic reminder that Texas does NOT have party registration. Early vote analysis is already complete garbage. But the ones purporting to show a more Dem/GOP electorate WITH SPECIFIC PARTISAN NUMBERS is ESPECIALLY BS.
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A pro-Ron Estes super PAC is going negative against Democratic nominee Katy Tyndell in Kansas' 4th District (Trump +24). Started airing this ad today >>>
CATargetBot0001
@CATargetBot0001Oct 23
NEW FEC F24 AMERICANS FOR AN EFFICIENT GOVERNMENT PAC $100,000-> #KS04 docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for…
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👀 Another $2 MILLION from Dems into South Carolina Senate Annie Andrews gonna be well-funded enough to put up a serious fight. Outside Rs only spending a few million more than Ds, while Andrews outspends Darline Graham like $24M to $2M.
CATargetBot0001
@CATargetBot0001Oct 25
NEW FEC F24 BLACKPAC $2,494,117-> #SCSEN #MISEN docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for…
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Ya know, if Dems flip the Senate as expected, then Republicans will have only held the chamber for 2 years to Dems’ 6 in the 2020s. Possibly 2R-8D if Dems hold it in 2028. This, despite Rs having a MASSIVE structural advantage in the Senate. Flop party moment.
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The 2028 map honestly isn’t bad for Dems, compared to other cycles. Need to defend NV, AZ, GA, PA, NH, and probably OH. But BIG targets in at least WI and NC.
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As a Democrat, I would be so INCREDIBLY owned if President Trump came to campaign in NJ. I would be ESPECIALLY owned if he came to campaign in our competitive seats, NJ-02 and NJ-07. Imagine all the GOP turnout - and definitely ONLY GOP turnout - he would inspire!
David Wildstein
@wildsteinOct 24
Justin Murphy, the GOP U.S. Senate candidate against Cory Booker, wants President Trump to campaign in New Jersey. newjerseyglobe.com/congress/…

Murphy wants Trump rally in New Jersey - New Jersey Globe

Republican U.S. Senate nominee Justin Murphy wants President Donald Trump to come to New Jersey for a campaign rally before Election Day, and he's

newjerseyglobe.com
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My strong, STRONG advice, is that anyone telling you Early Vote data has ANY predictive value whatsoever, and obsessively updates new EV data, is full of it and straight up not worth your time. No matter how fancy the graph or chart, garbage is still garbage.
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The new NYT graphics on early votes actually does a great job showing why tracking this stuff is STUPID. For example, in 2022, the Iowa EVs were D+16, but final electorate was R+8. In 2024, the EVs were R+1, and the final electorate was R+10. BOTH resulted in R+12/13. POINTLESS
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This is a starker difference than other states, but the story is more or less states: there is VERY little correlation between the early vote composition and the final composition, let alone the final election results. This whole thing is stupid - just ppl grifting for clicks.
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Pro-AI Super PAC Leading the Future lighting $44K on fire in Trump+46 PA-13. Proving that either chatbots are laughably bad at figuring out who needs help, or that safe seat Republicans can be bought for EXTREMELY cheap. Maybe both.
CATargetBot0001
@CATargetBot0001Oct 24
NEW FEC F24 AMERICAN MISSION $44,375-> #PA13 docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for…
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Back in May, my prediction was that Cook would move 21 House races left over the summer. Tbh, at the time, I thought this was an underestimate - Cook’s ratings were ABSURDLY outdated. They ended up only moving 18 - cuz I guess they were saving at least SIXTY THREE for October.
Ethan C7@ECaliberSevenOct 23
This marks SIXTY-THREE House ratings Cook has shifted left over the last month. Some are genuinely new developments. But a LOT of them are Cook FINALLY getting off its stupid laggard butt, and catching up to the data. Like, HOW WAS CA-13 STILL LEAN D? THE ELECTION’S IN 10 DAYS!
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Pretty sure Cook had REPUBLICANS favored in more seats than DEMOCRATS all the way into late SEPTEMBER! All while the generic ballot was reaching BLUE TYPHOON levels. Utter clownery.
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Ethan C7 retweeted
Drew Savicki
@DrewSavOct 23
Replying to @ECaliberSeven @celeste43_ @MassJumbo
You're both wrong, they started him off at Leans D.
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