EL OSO retweeted
🇫🇷 France's protests are turning into something MUCH BIGGER than a weekend of unrest.
Huge crowds are flooding the streets over soaring living costs and concerns about democracy.
In Paris alone, police counted 110,000 demonstrators.
And the movement isn't winding down.
Protest organizers are already building toward a nationwide GENERAL STRIKE on November 5.
What started as street protests is becoming a sustained challenge to the French government.
Writer: Oliver
EL OSO retweeted
¿Casualidad o señal? La demora promedio de $YPF para publicar los resultados trimestrales fue de 38 días durante los últimos dos años. El 3T26 se anunciará 28 días después de cerrado el trimestre. Huele a que será tan bueno que no quisieron demorarse en informarlo.
EL OSO retweeted
$CAAP sorprendente como en pocos meses Aerolineas y JetSmart en pocos meses llenaron el vacío que dejó Flybondi.
Muy sólida la demanda de vuelos domesticos a pesar del px para arriba de los tickets empujado por el oil
EL OSO retweeted
Hay algo que me parece importante entender cuando se habla del bienestar que muchos argentinos recuerdan de los años del kirchnerismo y de las dificultades que hoy enfrentan tantas familias para llegar a fin de mes.
Es algo sobre lo que me han preguntado mucho los periodistas en estas últimas semanas, y creo que vale la pena explicar con un espíritu pedagógico, no confrontativo.
La realidad es que una parte importante de aquel bienestar era, sencillamente, insostenible.
Los subsidios a los servicios públicos, las jubilaciones y pensiones otorgadas sin contribuciones suficientes y otras transferencias del Estado permitían sostener un nivel de consumo superior al que la economía podía financiar de manera permanente.
¿Cómo se pagaba la diferencia? Con déficits fiscales financiados con deuda (es decir, comprometiendo ingresos de las generaciones futuras), con emisión monetaria (y su contrapartida, la inflación, uno de los impuestos más regresivos) y con consumo de activos: reservas internacionales que se evaporaban, infraestructura que se deterioraba y bienes de capital que no se reponían por falta de inversión.
Pensemos por un momento en una familia. ¿Qué diríamos de alguien que, durante años, mantiene un nivel de vida superior al que permiten sus ingresos, endeudándose, gastando sus ahorros y vendiendo los activos familiares acumulados durante décadas?
Seguramente, que está viviendo una ficción. Y que, tarde o temprano, esa ficción se termina.
Bueno, eso es, en buena medida, lo que ocurrió en la Argentina.
Cuando hoy muchas familias sienten que no llegan a fin de mes porque tienen que pagar una proporción mayor del costo de los servicios públicos, o porque el Estado ya no puede seguir financiando determinados beneficios, están experimentando, al menos en parte, las consecuencias de haber vivido durante años con un nivel de consumo que no era sostenible.
Y acá está el punto central: no es que antes éramos más ricos y ahora somos más pobres. Es que una buena parte de aquella prosperidad se financiaba consumiendo ingresos futuros y patrimonio acumulado.
Por supuesto, el ajuste tiene costos, y esos costos no siempre se distribuyen de manera uniforme. Pero tampoco podemos confundir la eliminación de un desequilibrio con la causa del desequilibrio.
El verdadero desafío no es volver a un nivel de vida financiado con deuda y consumo de activos, sino construir uno que podamos sostener con nuestros propios ingresos.
Y eso requiere inversión, productividad y crecimiento.
No hay atajos.
EL OSO retweeted
Tres elecciones, tres procesos políticos diferentes, pero riesgos financieros mucho más conectados de lo que parece.
Durante este año, junto con Ailin do Pazo Glave (@adopazoglave), estuvimos desarrollando PRISMA, un motor de inteligencia macrofinanciera que combina evidencia, modelos y precios de mercado para identificar oportunidades de inversión, contrastar escenarios y evaluar riesgos antes de comprometer capital.
No se trata solamente de anticipar qué puede ocurrir, sino de entender qué está descontando el mercado, dónde pueden existir asimetrías entre precios y fundamentos, y cuánto cuesta equivocarse.
PRISMA está pensado especialmente para gestores de fondos, family offices, asset managers y otros inversores sofisticados, que necesitan traducir el análisis macroeconómico y geopolítico en decisiones concretas de inversión y gestión de riesgos.
Será un producto por suscripción, el primero de una serie que estamos diseñando. Además de informes y herramientas de análisis, los suscriptores tendrán acceso a un asistente de inteligencia artificial conectado al motor de PRISMA y a su extensa base de datos, al que podrán hacerle preguntas, plantearle escenarios alternativos, modificar supuestos y pedirle sugerencias sobre estrategias de inversión, coberturas y gestión de portafolios. La idea es que el lector pueda interrogar al modelo, no solamente recibir nuestras conclusiones.
Hoy comparto nuestro PRISMA Focus sobre las elecciones de Brasil, Estados Unidos e Israel, que analizamos como un único problema de cartera. Tres eventos políticos distintos, pero con factores de riesgo comunes que conviene identificar para no terminar pagando varias veces por la misma protección.
Más tarde compartiré otro Focus, dedicado a las elecciones estadounidenses del 3 de noviembre y sus implicancias para el mercado de Treasuries. Y mañana, nuestra lectura final de estrategia y portafolio antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial en Brasil el 25 de octubre.
Espero que les resulte interesante. Como siempre, serán muy bienvenidos los comentarios y las críticas.
drive.google.com/file/d/1nIQ…
EL OSO retweeted
This is crazy‼️
The $SPX is ~1% off its highs.
Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket is -41%.
We’ve never seen anything like this.
EL OSO retweeted
$SUPV
1H Posible finalización de figura chartista conocida como HCH invertido. Si supera los $7,39 el precio objetivo planteado está en $7,95. Un posible up side de 7,56%
EL OSO retweeted
Que buena cuenta de twitter la de Mariano 👇 para seguir oil&gas con detalle
🇦🇷 La producción de petróleo de Argentina saltó 3,3% en septiembre y marcó un nuevo récord histórico 🚀
🛢️ 973.700 bbl/d (+3,3% m/m | +15,5% i.a.)
📊 Vaca Muerta aportó 698.500 bbl/d, también récord, y ya explica el 71,7% del total. El convencional (~275.200 bbl/d) sigue en declive, y el shale lo compensa con creces.
🏭 Principales operadoras (producción operada):
• $YPF: 382.806 bbl/d (+4,1% m/m), 39,3% del país
• Pan American Energy: 103.829 bbl/d, 10,7%
• Pluspetrol: 95.400 bbl/d, 9,8%
• $VIST: 85.180 bbl/d (+4,5% m/m), 8,7%
• Shell: 40.158 bbl/d, 4,1%
• $PAMP: 26.223 bbl/d (+29,4% m/m), 2,7%, empujada por Rincón de Aranda
🎯 Faltan ~26.300 bbl/d (2,7%) para el millón de barriles diarios. Si se repite el salto de septiembre, se superaría en octubre. Al ritmo promedio del último año (~1,2% mensual), hacia fin de año.
EL OSO retweeted
Replying to @ELOSOLICH
Esta semana me llegó este libro. Tengo que empezar a leerlo urgente.
Comentario aparte: la calidad de encuadernación, el texto y los gráficos que tiene es impresionante.
EL OSO retweeted
Replying to @GuilleBazzola
@GuilleBazzola
@osvaldobazan
@berlich
@abrosler
@Itongadol
@HumansOfJudaism
@AmbAhuvaSpieler
@veoisrael
@Defensa_Israel
@IsraelinSpanish
@jewishinsider
@AJCGlobal
@OSArgentina
@DAIAArgentina
@InfoAMIA
@cburgueno
@H_Etchaleco
@pinchegorro
@FernandoLevyha1
@fedecohen5
@annitacohen
@facusonatti
@spitta1969
@zieglersandra2
@clauavruj
@alejandroalfie
@dreidel1
@ELOSOLICH
@DarioEpstein @edufeiok @eduardoyeyati @dieguez_ @diegosehinkman @diegoleuco @wertheing @MediaOriente @gordameir @AmbEyalSela @diegoelman @GalitRonen
@galit_gurovich
@jcimach
@pabloquirno
@pgerchunoff
@lucasllach
@andyneumeyer
@Beni1950
Comparto la nota que me publicó hoy @infobae a raíz de los tres años del ataque terrorista contra Israel: "Ante el terror y el antisemitismo, volvimos a bailar"
Gracias @CavalloVale @danielhadad
infobae.com/opinion/2026/10/…
EL OSO retweeted
Replying to @GuilleBazzola
@GuilleBazzola @osvaldobazan @berlich @abrosler @Itongadol @HumansOfJudaism @AmbAhuvaSpieler @veoisrael @Defensa_Israel @IsraelinSpanish @jewishinsider @AJCGlobal @OSArgentina @DAIAArgentina @InfoAMIA @cburgueno @H_Etchaleco @pinchegorro @FernandoLevyha1 @fedecohen5 @annitacohen @facusonatti @spitta1969 @zieglersandra2 @clauavruj @alejandroalfie @dreidel1 @ELOSOLICH
Comparto con ustedes mi nota en @lanacioncom
"El boom de la cocina judía que conquista nuevos barrios y públicos" lanacion.com.ar/economia/neg…
EL OSO retweeted
You’re not gonna believe this.
5,000 stocks are down 20%+ from their 52-week highs.
And it gets crazier…
Nearly 4,000 are down 40%+.
Think about what that actually means.
While the major indices have held together, underneath the surface thousands of stocks have already been living through their own bear markets.
The index looking fine while individual stocks are getting absolutely destroyed underneath it.
Some seriously messed up shit when you actually look under the hood.
EL OSO retweeted
Calling the market irrational when CoreWeave’s own financial statements explain the selloff is absurd. The company generated $2.58 billion in quarterly revenue but recorded $640 million in net interest expense, lost $626 million and spent $6.42 billion on capital expenditures against just $679 million in operating cash flow. It carried $35.6 billion in debt and another $16.3 billion in operating lease liabilities, while unsecured bonds yielding over 15% reflect serious concerns about its financial risk. That $104 billion backlog is not profit, especially when fulfilling those contracts requires enormous additional investment in rapidly depreciating equipment and infrastructure.
The fundamental problem is whether CoreWeave can generate enough free cash flow to justify its liabilities before financing costs overwhelm the economics of its expansion. AI can revolutionize the world while the companies financing its infrastructure destroy shareholder value. History is littered with businesses that correctly anticipated technological revolutions but financially collapsed trying to capitalize on them. The market understands that distinction. Apparently, Intrator would rather call investors irrational than confront the financial reality of his own company.
CoreWeave $CRWV CEO Mike Intrator said the stock market is acting “irrationally” and that he remains confident in the AI cloud company - Bloomberg
EL OSO retweeted
And scene: CRWV CDS closes +135bps, panic selling and "just get the me the fukk out of this" capitulation
Next, CRWV next points up as capital markets access freezes and the Alix Partners of the world start making phone calls.
"Its Going To Zero": CoreWeave Implodes As Stocks Finally Notice What Credit Has Been Screaming For Weeks zerohedge.com/markets/its-go…
EL OSO retweeted
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,
My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov.
The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison.
I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return.
I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something.
Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act.
Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged.
Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working.
A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats.
This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried.
There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go.
Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him.
I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them.
This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one.
Three things would change the math overnight.
Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined.
End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one.
And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them.
Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine.
I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it.
Respectfully,
Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
EL OSO retweeted
From March 2000 to December 2011, U.S. stocks returned negative 1.7% in total.
Nearly twelve years of investing, and $10,000 ended at $9,830.
Over the same stretch, a 60/40 portfolio returned 42.3%. The same $10,000 grew to $14,230.
That is a 44 percentage point gap over a period many investors remember as the Lost Decade.
Long stretches of flat stock returns are rare, but they happen. When they do, the bond side of a portfolio can be what keeps progress moving.
This is one selected historical window, and exact figures shift with the indexes and rebalancing used.
The broader lesson holds up well. Diversification earns its keep over decades, not just in single bad years.
EL OSO retweeted
In golf, consistency is everything.
That's why I'm proud to announce I'm joining @DP_World as Global Golf Ambassador.
Excited to push the boundaries of performance together, backed by world-leading smart end-to-end logistics.
#SmartLogisticsToATee #DPWorldxRory
EL OSO retweeted
$MP
Estructura: tendencia bajista de mediano plazo (-57% desde el máximo de
oct-2025), precio bajo MM50 y MM200 y rebote de jul-ago agotado en la confluencia
línea bajista + MM200. La última vela roja de cuerpo largo llegó a USD 43,06, soporte
horizontal que coincide con el retroceso Fibonacci 78,6% del rebote: no se observa
reversión confirmada. No se recomienda abrir posiciones nuevas aquí. Alternativa
de mejor riesgo/beneficio: compra especulativa en USD 37,8 - 39,5 (retest del mínimo
de jul-2026) o ingreso tendencial solo sobre USD 51,6 - 56,5 (MM50 / MM200).

































