@ElectCalculus

Electoral Calculus (https://xitter.cf/t.co/4i0ISPybeH) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.

 United Kingdom
electoralcalculus.co.uk
Joined September 2016
  • Tweets1.5K
  • Following151
  • Followers26K
528Media
Electoral Calculus retweeted
Nicholas Cecil
@nicholascecilOct 20
‘My gut tells me it's going to be quite close,’ says polling expert Martin Baxter, chief executive @ElectCalculus standard.co.uk/news/london/j…

Labour London surge: Could Jeremy Corbyn lose Islington North seat after 43 years?

‘My gut tells me it's going to be quite close,’ says polling expert Martin Baxter

standard.co.uk
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Nicholas Cecil
@nicholascecilOct 19
Labour surges in London under @andyburnham premiership, @ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK survey finds standard.co.uk/news/politics…

Labour to win 'record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero' in 90% of London

Labour surges in capital under Andy Burnham’s premiership, survey finds

standard.co.uk
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSOct 8
‘They have already peaked and they have been sliding in support.’ Pollster Dr Martin Baxter analyses the Green Party’s position in the polls, as the Holborn and St Pancras by-election results loom.
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSJul 26
'That is worrying for Reform.' 'Absolutely!' CEO of Electoral Calculus Martin Baxter on Restore Britain's trajectory in the polls.
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Nicholas Cecil
@nicholascecilJul 9
Could London's political map really look like this after the next general election? standard.co.uk/news/politics…

Green Party to win astonishing number of London seats at next election, poll predicts

Labour could be left with just 27 MPs in the capital, according to the new survey

standard.co.uk
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSJun 19
Martin Baxter assesses Andy Burnham's popularity amongst voters. He looks at a poll that says he would put Labour three points ahead of Reform if he became the new Labour leader. 📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 🇬🇧 Become a Friend of GB News: gbnews.com/support
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSMay 26
‘In political terms that is a big difference.’ CEO of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, gives the latest polling updates on how immigration is playing on the minds of the British public. 📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSMay 14
'This was particularly fertile hunting ground for Reform for votes...' Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's odds of winning a by-election in Makerfield, as he make a bid to become Prime Minister.
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
GB News
@GBNEWSMay 8
'Reform gets about 250 seats at Westminster...' CEO of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter reveals what the results of a general election would be if it were to be held tomorrow.
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
The National
@ScotNationalApr 6
BREAKING: The SNP are set for an outright majority in the Holyrood elections, according to a major new poll The new research is only the second time multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) has been used to estimate the results of a Scottish parliament election
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Amy Gibbons@tweetsbyamesFeb 27
NEW: Keir Starmer and most of the Labour Cabinet would lose their seats if the Gorton and Denton result was replicated at the next election, @ElectCalculus analysis suggests 👇 Sir John Curtice texts: “I make the numbers even worse for Labour!” 😬 telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…

Starmer will lose seat if Greens repeat success at general election

Labour would win just 33 seats if Gorton and Denton result was replicated across country

telegraph.co.uk
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Sky News
@SkyNewsJan 15
"There's a bit of a balance there that'll be in Nigel Farage's head." Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter tells @skysarahjane while Robert Jenrick has star power for Reform, the party will be looking to avoid having too many former Tories. trib.al/KV3yrEm
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🚨 SNAP DIGITAL ID POLL🚨 We at @ElectCalculus and @FindoutnowUK asked the public whether they support or oppose the government's plan for Digital ID. The public rejects Digital ID, by a clear margin according to our findings. ❌ Oppose: 47% ✅ Support: 27%
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EXCLUSIVE: YOUNG PEOPLE LEAD THE REVOLT AGAINST DIGITAL ID Tune into @GBNEWS next to discover why the anti-Digital ID backlash is being led by youngsters - the very people Labour believed backed them! Has Labour spectacularly misjudged the national mood? From @ElectCalculus
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Daily Express
@Daily_Express25 Sep 2025
New study shows that tactical voting against Reform UK could cost the insurgent party dozens of MPs express.co.uk/news/politics/…
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ANALYSIS: Presentations from our “Polling Lessons from 2024” event are now available on our website britishpollingcouncil.org/po… Featuring @keiranpedley @anthonyjwells @DamianSurvation @p_surridge @ProfJaneGreen @ElectCalculus @tmlbk @RStruthers17 @TyronSurmon

Polling Lessons from 2024 – British Polling Council (BPC)

A public event, organised by the BPC, in association with the Market Research Society, was held on 6th May 2025 to reflect on the lessons learned to date. In a series of talks, representatives of...

britishpollingcouncil.org
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EVENT: Join us 6th May where speakers from @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @BMG @Survation @IpsosUK @Verian @ElectCalculus @Moreincommon_ will share their reflections on polling at the last election and what we’ve learned along the way britishpollingcouncil.org/ca…
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
PLMR East of England@PLMREast8 Apr 2025
📊 New @PLMRltd & @ElectCalculus polling shows Reform UK’s Nigel Farage is more trusted than the PM to represent the UK internationally — according to East of England voters. Full insights: plmr.co.uk/2025/04/eoe-votin… #EastofEngland #Polling #PublicAffairs
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Dave McCormick@railwaydave4 Jul 2024
All set for Election Night! I'll be using @ElectCalculus's delightfully low-tech Slide-o-meter Sheets to keep track through the night - just lists of constituencies and highlighter pens. It's served me well the last 4 elections - but this year I need more colours than ever!
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🚨GENERAL ELECTION 2024: SECOND MRP POLL🚨 @electcalculus and @findoutnowUK asked over 19k people who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 60 (-6) LAB: 450 (-26) LD: 71 (+12) Reform: 18 (+18) Green: 4 (+2) 14-24th June/changes with first MRP
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