#Russia - Household lending accelerates to 10.3% y/y in September amid mortgage rush - Mortgage lending surges ahead of tighter family mortgage conditions - Corporate lending slows in monthly terms despite stronger annual growth emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Kyrgyzstan - Republican budget posts KGS 12.5bn surplus in September - Cumulative budget surplus reaches KGS 94.1bn - Budget revenues increase on expansion of non-tax receipts - Spending also higher, pension indexation to raise it further emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Pakistan - SBP raises policy rate by 50bps to 12% - Higher energy and wheat prices worsen inflation outlook - SBP drops guidance on inflation returning to target by June 2027 - Growth and current account deficit forecasts kept unchanged - Forex reserves projected to reach USD 25bn by end-June 2027 emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Romania - Budget deficit narrows y/y to 3.81% of GDP in Jan-Sep, lower than forecast - Deficit in September alone expands, driven by slightly higher expenditure growth - Revenues rise by 11.4% y/y driven by VAT mainly but also contributions, income taxes, EU fund flows - Expenditures are supported by EU-funded projects, interest expenses also have contribution emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Tajikistan - Industrial output growth accelerates to 13.4% y/y in September - Improvement is driven by mining; comes despite weaker domestic demand - Manufacturing accelerates, supported by metallurgy and construction-related industries - Retail sales and investment growth slow sharply on seasonal patterns - Agricultural growth moderates on weaker harvest emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Bangladesh - Industrial output growth eases to 2.4% y/y in July - Manufacturing growth slows to four-month low on unfavourable base effect, gas shortages - Big industries contract, while smaller manufacturers maintain solid growth - Energy crisis likely to have greater impact on August production emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#SaudiArabia - Trade surplus rises to USD 4.2bn in August but Houthis threaten oil exports - Crude oil shipments rose in August, but weaker oil prices dragged on oil revenues - Drone attacks shut down East-West pipeline for 10 days, but Aramco stepped up ship-to-ship exports through Hormuz - Imports remain weak in August as Gulf ports remain blocked - About 55% of imports by value come via ports; activity shifts to Red Sea ports since Iran war broke out - Most important non-oil exports are plastics and rubber, and chemicals; Machinery and equipment top imports list - China remains Saudi Arabia's main trading partner, Asia accounts for 70% of total trade emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#SouthAfrica - DA narrows gap with ANC to only 1.2pps in internal DA poll ahead of Nov 4 - The DA polls at 28.4% against 29.6% for the ANC - The DA leads in six of the seven metros surveyed - Internal polling has historically overstated DA support and assumes lower turnout emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Egypt - Government unveils medium-term economic program - Egypt sets ambitious targets for 2030, covering fiscal policy, industry, agriculture, exports, job creation, and social development - Program, which will undergo public dialogue, aims to provide guidance when IMF programs conclude emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Morocco - Gross borrowing requirement set at MAD 159.0bn in 2027 - Budget deficit will reach MAD 89.6bn; debt amortization to amount to MAD 69.4bn - Government plans to raise MAD 120bn in new debt - Equal domestic and external issuance targets signal diversified funding strategy emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Flávio Bolsonaro rejects election result and says he will seek annulment - Flávio criticizes the STF's extension of polling hours, which could fuel discontent among his supporters - TSE has already recognized the result, making a reversal unlikely emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Lula wins surprise reelection with 51.76% of valid votes - Lula is reelected president with 64.1mn votes, allowing him to beat Flávio Bolsonaro and his 59.8mn votes in Sun. runoff - Abstention rate falls to 19% in the runoff from 21% in the first round on Oct 4 - Lula will face immediate challenges against a conservative Congress, complicating governability, while fiscal policy is likely to remain a key concern - VP Alckmin is considered a top candidate for finance minister - Extension of polling hours could fuel criticism and trigger further demonstrations similar to the Jan 8, 2023, riots emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Serbia - Student List to oust SNS from power amid record high turnout - Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat, saying only two blocks enter parliament - Exit poll shows Student List won 52.2% of the vote, while Vucic's list won 39.2% - Student List would be able to form a government on its own, even without minorities emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - STF extends polling hours until 7pm BRT nationwide - Voting hours are extended following reports of public transportation problems across the country - With the extension, results are now likely to be released around 11pm BRT (10pm ET, 3am London time) - Decision could cause confusion and prompt challenges to the results emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Israel - Services exports jump 22.2% y/y sa in August - Services exports increase at more than 10% in each month in past year - Growth is mainly driven by business sector services, high-tech services grow strong too emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

Five things that happened in EMs this week: Oct 19 - Oct 23 #Romania | A government at last PM Luca Niculescu won a confidence vote on Oct 20 by 280 to 58, ending a deadlock that dragged on for months. He’s the fourth PM President Dan has nominated since May, and he’s pledged to cut the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2030. The catch: his cabinet has only PSD and independent ministers, so every big fiscal measure will need to be negotiated in a pre-election year. #SouthAfrica | Debt has peaked Finance Minister Godongwana said debt topped out at 78.4% of GDP in 2025-26 and will fall from here. He also published draft legislation for a fiscal anchor, which would require each new government to set a fiscal plan within 60 days. Bonds rallied though the anchor has no binding debt or deficit ceilings, so we doubt it guarantees faster debt reduction. #Colombia | Budget by decree The government will enact its COP 634.9tn 2027 budget by decree after a procedural error invalidated Congress’s approval. That costs political capital just 2 months into President De la Espriella’s term, ahead of a Rescue Act with nearly COP 45tn in spending cuts. The central government deficit already reached 4.5% of GDP in January-August. #India | Voter-roll protests spread Farmers, students and left-leaning groups joined nationwide protests against the overhaul of voter rolls, which opposition groups say could disenfranchise marginalised voters. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha farmers’ alliance, which forced Modi to repeal his farm laws in 2021, is now part of the movement. UN experts flagged a “troubling pattern” of excessive force during the protests. #Kazakhstan | A bigger cut than expected The National Bank cut its base rate by 50bp to 15.75% on Oct 23, double the 25bp cut we expected. Inflation has fallen for 12 months in a row to 9.3%, and the bank says another move before year-end is unlikely. #emergingmarkets

#Argentina - Net FX reserves tick down to USD 7.5bn in September - Net reserves decline USD 281mn m/m as gold value decline more than offsets BCRA's spot market purchases emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Peru - Private lending growth remains stable at 10.3% y/y in September - Consumer credit growth accelerates to 13.2% y/y, remaining the fastest-growing segment - Mortgage lending growth remains relatively stable at 7.8% y/y - Business lending growth slows to 9.8% y/y from 10.2% in August emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Russia - CBR holds key rate at 14.00%, in line with expectations - Accelerating inflation and supply constraints reinforce the case for restrictive policy - Stronger consumption and limited output growth signal persistent inflationary pressures - CBR raises 2027 average key rate forecast above our expectations emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#SouthAfrica - Treasury plans buyback programme to ease redemption pressures - Treasury cuts projected domestic bond redemptions for FY2027/28 by ZAR 84.1bn since February - Treasury had already switched ZAR 47.6bn of bonds during Apr-Aug - Treasury cuts weekly bond auction offerings by cumulative ZAR 700mn emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets