Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor (@EmmanuelInvest)

@EmmanuelInvestOct 24

20 STOCKS PROJECTED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE PROFITS BY 2030. BUT WILL THEIR SHARE PRICES FOLLOW? $MRVL +1,762%. $AMD +1,753%. $LITE +1,458%. Those are extraordinary earnings-growth forecasts. But here's what interests me: the companies expected to grow profits the fastest won't necessarily deliver the best investment returns. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, these 20 companies are projected to more than double adjusted net income between 2025 and 2030. PROJECTED ADJUSTED NET INCOME GROWTH | 2025–2030 🔹 $MRVL Marvell: +1,762% 🔹 $AMD AMD: +1,753% 🔹 $LITE Lumentum: +1,458% 🔹 $ARM Arm: +1,194% 🔹 $PLTR Palantir: +998% 🔹 $AVGO Broadcom: +811% 🔹 $TSLA Tesla: +596% 🔹 $NVDA Nvidia: +475% 🔹 $DELL Dell: +372% 🔹 $SHOP Shopify: +353% 🔹 $MELI MercadoLibre: +258% 🔹 $TSM TSMC: +248% 🔹 $AMAT Applied Materials: +192% 🔹 $AMZN Amazon: +186% 🔹 $GOOGL Alphabet: +181% 🔹 $SPOT Spotify: +155% 🔹 $UBER Uber: +149% 🔹 $MSFT Microsoft: +131% 🔹 $NFLX Netflix: +116% 🔹 $HOOD Robinhood: +111% WHAT STANDS OUT TO ME First, look at the concentration of AI-related companies near the top. Marvell, AMD, Lumentum, Arm, Broadcom and Nvidia are positioned across different parts of the AI infrastructure buildout. If these forecasts materialise, the opportunity extends well beyond the companies manufacturing GPUs. Second, there's an interesting contrast between the high-growth names and established businesses like Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. Microsoft's projected 131% earnings growth might look modest beside Marvell's 1,762%. But Microsoft is starting from a much larger earnings base. A company doubling substantial profits can create more absolute earnings than a smaller company growing profits tenfold. Third, these are adjusted earnings forecasts, not promises of future stock returns. Starting valuations matter. So do capital expenditure, dilution, margins and free cash flow. MY TAKE I'm bullish on the long-term AI opportunity, particularly the infrastructure and networking businesses supporting it. But I wouldn't buy a stock simply because analysts expect its profits to grow by 500%, 1,000% or more. The market may already be pricing in much of that growth. What I'm looking for is the combination of strong earnings growth, reasonable valuation and attractive returns on invested capital. The biggest earnings-growth story isn't necessarily the best investment. The price you pay still matters. Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for adjusted net income growth, 2025–2030. Figures are forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 11:04 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest3h

MICROSOFT $MSFT — AZURE IS HEADING TOWARD 50% GROWTH, BUT THE EARNINGS CALL REVEALED SOMETHING IMPORTANT ABOUT CAPEX. I've been reviewing Microsoft's Q1 FY2027 earnings call, and three developments stand out. 1. AZURE IS STILL ACCELERATING 🔹 Q1 growth: 48% YoY 🔹 Q2 guidance: 49–50% in constant currency 🔹 Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity. That's impressive growth for a business of Azure's scale. 2. THE CAPEX STORY NEEDS CONTEXT 🔹 Total Q1 CapEx: $45.2B 🔹 Cash paid for property and equipment: $39.4B 🔹 Q2 CapEx expected to exceed $50B 🔹 Calendar 2026 spending expected around $170B Some infrastructure deliveries have been delayed rather than cancelled. That's an important distinction. Lower near-term spending doesn't necessarily mean Microsoft needs less capital. 3. AI MONETISATION IS EXPANDING 🔹 Foundry revenue more than tripled. 🔹 Copilot consumption-billing customers increased over 75% QoQ. 🔹 Operating cash flow reached $58B. 🔹 Free cash flow remained positive at $18.6B. MY TAKE What interests me most is Microsoft's ability to monetise AI across multiple layers, from Azure infrastructure to Foundry, Copilot and enterprise software. The demand is clearly there. But with spending still accelerating, the next challenge is sustaining strong cash generation while bringing new capacity online. Azure's growth is impressive. The long-term investment case depends on how efficiently Microsoft converts that growth into cash flow and returns.

MICROSOFT $MSFT Q1’27 — AZURE GROWTH ACCELERATES TO 48%, REVENUE HITS $92.3B AND EARNINGS BEAT EXPECTATIONS. BUT THE BACKLOG DESERVES ATTENTION. Microsoft has delivered another strong quarter, with Azure, revenue and operating income all exceeding Wall Street expectations. What stands out to me is that Azure is accelerating while Microsoft continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure. But not every metric was ahead of expectations. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $92.3B vs $90.69B est. 🟢 (+19% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $4.89 vs $4.73 est. 🟢 (+18% YoY) 🔹 Operating income: $45.9B vs $44.06B est. 🟢 (+21% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted net income: $36.4B vs $35.13B est. 🟢 🔹 Microsoft Cloud: $63.9B (+30% YoY) 🔹 Azure revenue: $33.2B vs $32.32B est. 🟢 🔹 Azure growth: +48% vs +44.7% est. 🟢 🔹 Commercial RPO: $677B vs $705.6B est. 🔴 GUIDANCE Microsoft's next-quarter guidance has not yet been included in the reported figures. I'll be watching management's outlook for Azure growth, AI capacity expansion, margins and capital expenditure. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. AZURE IS ACCELERATING Azure grew 48% year over year, ahead of expectations. That's particularly encouraging given Microsoft's scale. The key question now is how much of that growth is being driven by AI workloads and whether capacity expansion can support further acceleration. 2. PROFITABILITY IS KEEPING PACE Operating income increased 21%, compared with revenue growth of 19%. That suggests Microsoft is still generating operating leverage despite the scale of its AI investment. For me, this is one of the strongest aspects of the quarter. 3. THE $677B COMMERCIAL BACKLOG NEEDS CONTEXT Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $677B, below the $705.6B consensus. That's a meaningful miss against expectations. But I wouldn't interpret it as evidence of weakening demand without understanding contract timing, new bookings and the contribution from large customers. The important question is how quickly that backlog converts into recognised revenue. 4. AI INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL 🔹 Capital expenditure: $39.4B 🔹 Consensus: $46.59B 🔹 CapEx/revenue: approximately 42.7% Spending came in below expectations, but $39.4B remains an enormous quarterly investment. Lower-than-expected capex isn't automatically positive if it reflects infrastructure delivery constraints rather than greater efficiency. 5. THE BROADER BUSINESS REMAINS STRONG 🔹 Agents & Infrastructure revenue: $76.8B 🔹 Devices & Consumer revenue: $15.5B 🔹 Search & Advertising: $6.6B 🔹 Xbox: $5.4B (−2% YoY) 🔹 Shareholder returns: $10.2B Microsoft's AI opportunity sits alongside several established revenue-generating businesses. That diversification remains an important competitive advantage. MY TAKE I like these results. Azure's 48% growth is impressive, operating income is growing faster than revenue, and Microsoft Cloud revenue has reached $63.9B. But I wouldn't ignore the RPO miss or assume lower-than-expected capital spending automatically improves the investment case. For me, the next test is whether Microsoft can sustain Azure's momentum, convert its commercial commitments into revenue and generate attractive returns on its expanding AI infrastructure. **The growth is showing

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 10:56 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest3h

CARVANA $CVNA JUMPS 8% AFTER HOURS, BUT TWO DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE EARNINGS CALL DESERVE ATTENTION. I've been reviewing Carvana's Q3 results, and the growth is difficult to ignore. 🔹 Revenue: $8.04B (+42%) 🔹 Retail vehicles sold: 217,385 (+39%) 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $800M (+26%) 🔹 Market share: Approximately 2% of the US used-car market What's interesting is that Carvana is delivering this growth while the broader used-car market remains relatively flat. That's a strong indication of market share gains. But two things caught my attention. First, profitability isn't keeping pace with revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined from 11.3% to 10%, while gross profit per vehicle fell $365. Second, management plans to stop providing quarterly and annual financial guidance beginning with its Q4 2026 earnings call. Instead, it will focus on longer-term targets, including 3 million annual vehicle sales at a 12.5% GAAP operating margin between 2030 and 2035. My takeaway: I'm impressed by Carvana's ability to gain market share and scale its business. But faster sales growth doesn't automatically mean better unit economics. For me, the next test is whether Carvana can sustain its market share gains while rebuilding margins. That's what will determine the quality of its long-term earnings growth.

CARVANA $CVNA Q3’26 — REVENUE SURGES 42%, VEHICLE SALES JUMP 39%, BUT PROFIT MARGINS ARE UNDER PRESSURE. Carvana delivered another quarter of exceptional growth. Revenue reached $8B, retail vehicle sales exceeded 200,000 for the first time, and management remains confident about its full-year profitability outlook. But there's an important distinction between growing sales and improving the economics of each sale. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $8.0B vs $7.7B est. 🟢 (+42% YoY) 🔹 EPS: $0.39 vs $0.44 est. 🔴 🔹 Retail units sold: 217,385 (+39% YoY) 🔹 Net income: $483M, up $220M 🔹 Net income margin: 6.0% (+130 bps YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $800M, up $163M 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA margin: 10.0% (−130 bps YoY) FY2026 OUTLOOK 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: Expected toward the upper end of $2.7B–$3.0B 🔹 Q4 retail units: Expected to increase sequentially Management is signalling confidence in continued volume growth and full-year adjusted profitability. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. CARVANA'S SCALE IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY Retail vehicle sales increased 39% to 217,385 units. That's a significant milestone for the business. Carvana is demonstrating that its online used-car model can handle increasingly large transaction volumes. The next challenge is translating that scale into better unit economics. 2. RETAIL VEHICLES ARE DRIVING GROWTH 🔹 Retail vehicle revenue: $6.1B (+53.8% YoY) 🔹 Wholesale revenue: $1.3B (+10.6% YoY) 🔹 Other revenue: $594M (+25.3% YoY) Retail vehicle revenue is growing considerably faster than the other segments. That supports the company's expanding market presence, but it also makes vehicle acquisition costs, pricing and inventory management increasingly important. 3. PROFITABILITY TELLS A MIXED STORY Adjusted EBITDA increased to $800M, but its margin declined from approximately 11.3% to 10%. That's worth watching. Carvana is generating more adjusted operating profit in absolute dollars, but less adjusted EBITDA for every dollar of revenue. At the same time, reported net income margin improved to 6%. I'd want to understand the factors behind that difference before concluding that underlying profitability is strengthening across the board. 4. CAPACITY PROVIDES ROOM FOR FURTHER GROWTH 🔹 Integrated production sites: 21 🔹 Fully built-out annual capacity: 1.5M vehicles 🔹 Long-term real estate capacity: Up to 3M annual retail units Carvana has substantial room to expand. But capacity alone doesn't guarantee attractive returns. Higher utilisation, logistics efficiency and disciplined capital investment will determine how profitable that expansion becomes. MY TAKE I like Carvana's growth. Selling more than 217,000 retail vehicles in one quarter is impressive, and management's confidence in its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook is encouraging. But I wouldn't ignore the margin compression. Revenue growth of 42% is powerful, yet adjusted EBITDA growth is slower. For me, the next stage of the investment case is about whether Carvana can convert its expanding scale into consistently stronger margins and cash generation. Carvana has demonstrated that it can grow rapidly. The bigger question now is how profitable that growth becomes. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 10:53 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest3h

SERVICENOW $NOW FALLS 17% AFTER HOURS DESPITE ACCELERATING AI ADOPTION. WHAT IS THE MARKET WORRIED ABOUT? I've been reviewing ServiceNow's Q3 earnings call, and the contrast is striking. 🔹 AI net new ACV: +65% YoY 🔹 Agentic AI production consumption: >13× YoY 🔹 Current RPO: $13.65B (+21% constant currency) 🔹 FY2026 free cash flow margin guidance raised to 36% Those aren't weak operating numbers. But management's Q4 outlook calls for cRPO growth of 18.5%, below Q3's 21%. Management says contract timing, deployment support and deal mix are affecting the near-term figures. That may explain some of the slowdown, but investors still need to see AI adoption translate into stronger recurring revenue growth. My takeaway: ServiceNow is demonstrating real enterprise AI adoption without the enormous capital requirements facing infrastructure providers. But AI usage growth and shareholder returns are two different things. For me, the next test is whether that accelerating AI adoption can lift subscription growth enough to justify the valuation.

SERVICENOW $NOW Q3’26 — AI CONTRACT VALUE TARGET JUMPS TO $1.7B AS ENTERPRISE ADOPTION ACCELERATES. ServiceNow delivered another strong quarter, with subscription revenue, total revenue and remaining performance obligations exceeding expectations. Adjusted EPS missed slightly, but what interests me most is the company's progress in turning enterprise AI adoption into contracted business. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $4.1B vs $4.09B est. 🟢 🔹 Subscription revenue: $4.0B vs $3.98B est. 🟢 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.00 vs $1.02 est. 🔴 🔹 Current RPO: $13.65B vs $13.56B est. 🟢 (+20.5% YoY) 🔹 Total RPO: $29.7B (+22% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted operating margin: 32.5% vs 31.2% est. 🟢 🔹 Free cash flow: $822M FY2026 GUIDANCE — RAISED 🔹 Subscription revenue: $15.78B–$15.79B 🔹 Subscription gross margin: 81% 🔹 Operating margin: 31.5% 🔹 Free cash flow margin: 36%, raised by 100 bps Q4 OUTLOOK 🔹 Subscription revenue: $4.25B–$4.26B 🔹 Current RPO growth: 18.5% YoY WHAT'S CHANGING 1. ENTERPRISE AI IS BECOMING A COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY ServiceNow raised its 2026 AI ACV target to $1.7B. That's up from $1B at the beginning of the year, with management raising its target for the second time. Even more interesting, agentic AI production consumption increased more than 13× year over year. For me, that's an encouraging sign that customers are moving beyond experimentation toward deploying AI in real business workflows. But consumption growth and contracted revenue are different measures. The next test is how much recurring revenue and incremental profit those deployments generate. 2. LARGE ENTERPRISE CONTRACTS ARE EXPANDING 🔹 Transactions above $5M ACV: 19 (+135% YoY) 🔹 Customers above $5M ACV: 680 (+23% YoY) 🔹 Current RPO: $13.65B (+20.5% YoY) These figures suggest ServiceNow continues gaining traction with large enterprise customers. That's important because its long-term growth depends on customers expanding their use of the platform across more workflows. 3. PROFITABILITY IS IMPROVING ALONGSIDE AI ADOPTION Adjusted operating margin reached 32.5%, exceeding the 31.2% consensus. Management also raised its full-year free cash flow margin target to 36%. I find that combination particularly encouraging. ServiceNow is investing in AI while maintaining strong profitability and capital efficiency. 4. THE FORWARD OUTLOOK STILL MATTERS Q4 subscription revenue guidance is $4.25B–$4.26B, with current RPO growth expected at 18.5%. That's worth watching against Q3 current RPO growth of 20.5%. The two figures aren't perfectly comparable, but investors should examine whether the outlook reflects contract timing, tougher comparisons or moderating demand. MY TAKE I like these results. ServiceNow is showing encouraging evidence of AI adoption, expanding large enterprise relationships and strong profitability. The $1.7B AI ACV target is particularly important because it provides a commercial measure of the opportunity. But I'd distinguish AI adoption from AI monetisation. Rapid consumption growth is encouraging; durable recurring revenue, customer renewals and sustained margins will ultimately determine the returns. For me, ServiceNow is becoming an important test of whether enterprise AI can generate meaningful revenue without requiring the capital intensity of the infrastructure providers. That's what makes this quarter worth watching. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 10:08 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest4h

FORTINET $FTNT PLUNGES 25% AFTER HOURS DESPITE BEATING EARNINGS. THE REVENUE MIX MAY EXPLAIN PART OF THE SELL-OFF. I've been reviewing Fortinet's Q3 earnings call, and the numbers tell a more complicated story than the headline beat. 🔹 Revenue: +20% YoY 🔹 Billings: +29% 🔹 Product revenue: +37% 🔹 Service revenue: +13% 🔹 Free cash flow: $865M (+52%) Those are strong results. But here's what caught my attention. Fortinet lowered its full-year service revenue outlook even as it raised its overall revenue guidance. Product revenue is growing considerably faster than recurring services, while product gross margins declined sequentially. That's an important distinction for investors. Hardware demand can be strong without necessarily translating into the recurring revenue growth the market expects. I'm encouraged by Fortinet's enterprise demand, profitability and cash generation. But the sell-off suggests investors are questioning the durability and quality of that growth. My takeaway: The earnings beat was real. So are the questions about recurring revenue momentum. For me, the next test is whether strong product sales translate into faster service revenue growth without sacrificing margins.

FORTINET $FTNT Q3’26 — BILLINGS JUMP 29%, PRODUCT REVENUE SURGES 37% AND EARNINGS BEAT EXPECTATIONS. Fortinet delivered a strong quarter, with revenue and earnings exceeding Wall Street expectations. But what interests me most is the acceleration in billings alongside impressive operating profitability. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $2.08B vs $2.06B est. 🟢 (+20% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $0.91 vs $0.86 est. 🟢 (+23% YoY) 🔹 Billings: $2.34B (+29% YoY) 🔹 Product revenue: $765M (+37% YoY) 🔹 Non-GAAP operating margin: 38.2% 🔹 Operating cash flow: $946M 🔹 Free cash flow: $865M FY2026 GUIDANCE 🔹 Revenue: $8.1B–$8.2B vs $8.12B est. 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $3.54–$3.58 vs $3.44 est. 🟢 🔹 Billings: $9.6B–$9.7B 🔹 Non-GAAP operating margin: 36.5%–37.5% Management says it has now raised its full-year billings guidance for the third time this year. Q4 OUTLOOK 🔹 Revenue: $2.16B–$2.25B vs $2.16B est. 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $0.93–$0.95 vs $0.87 est. 🟢 🔹 Billings: $2.8B–$2.9B 🔹 Operating margin: 35.5%–37.5% WHAT'S CHANGING 1. BILLINGS ARE GROWING FASTER THAN REVENUE Billings increased 29%, compared with revenue growth of 20%. That's encouraging because it suggests strong customer purchasing activity. But billings aren't the same as recognised revenue, and their timing can fluctuate. I'll be watching how that momentum translates into future revenue growth. 2. PRODUCT REVENUE IS ACCELERATING Product revenue increased 37% to $765M. That's one of the strongest figures in the report. The important question is whether demand is being supported by a sustained network-security investment cycle, broader platform adoption or a combination of both. 3. PROFITABILITY REMAINS A MAJOR STRENGTH Fortinet delivered a 38.2% non-GAAP operating margin. That's impressive for a business growing revenue 20%. For me, it demonstrates that Fortinet is maintaining strong operating discipline while investing in growth. 4. CASH GENERATION IS SUBSTANTIAL 🔹 Operating cash flow: $946M 🔹 Free cash flow: $865M Free cash flow represented approximately 42% of quarterly revenue. That gives Fortinet considerable financial flexibility to invest in products, expand its platform and return capital to shareholders. 5. THE AI SECURITY OPPORTUNITY IS EXPANDING Management highlighted its position in the AI era. I see an opportunity as enterprises deploy more AI workloads and need to secure increasingly complex networks, applications and infrastructure. But I wouldn't automatically attribute Fortinet's current growth to AI. The company still needs to demonstrate how AI-related security demand translates into incremental revenue. MY TAKE I like these results. Billings growth of 29%, product revenue growth of 37% and strong operating margins suggest Fortinet is executing well. The improving full-year outlook adds confidence. But I want to see whether this momentum can continue beyond the current product demand cycle. For me, the investment case rests on Fortinet sustaining strong security demand while protecting its margins and cash generation. That's what will determine whether this growth is durable. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 10:05 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest4h

ALPHABET $GOOGL — THE EARNINGS CALL ADDS IMPORTANT CONTEXT TO MY EARLIER ANALYSIS. Three developments caught my attention: 🔹 Cloud backlog: $561B, with more than 55% expected to convert into revenue within 24 months. 🔹 TPU systems: Management expects a more significant revenue ramp in 2027. 🔹 CapEx: $195B–$205B expected in 2026, with spending set to increase significantly again in 2027. What interests me is the scale of Google's AI opportunity versus the capital required to deliver it. The backlog provides revenue visibility, and TPU commercialisation creates another growth opportunity. But with quarterly free cash flow at negative $9.1B, the returns on that investment remain central to my thesis. Google is demonstrating demand. The next test is converting that demand into sustainable cash flow.

ALPHABET $GOOGL Q3’26 — GOOGLE CLOUD REVENUE DOUBLES TO $30.7B, BUT SEARCH MISSES AND FREE CASH FLOW TURNS NEGATIVE. Alphabet's latest results show just how quickly its AI infrastructure business is growing. Google Cloud revenue surged 103%, significantly exceeding expectations. But beneath that exceptional growth, there are some important numbers investors shouldn't overlook. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $127.6B vs $128.22B est. 🔴 (+25% YoY) 🔹 EPS: $2.12 🔹 Operating income: $40.6B vs $43.23B est. 🔴 🔹 Operating margin: 31.8% 🔹 Net income: $26.5B 🔹 Google Cloud: $30.7B vs $29.15B est. 🟢 🔹 Google Cloud operating income: $11.1B vs $9.75B est. 🟢 🔹 Google Cloud operating margin: 36.2% GUIDANCE Management's updated forward guidance hasn't been included in the initial figures. I'll be watching for further details on AI infrastructure spending, Cloud growth and the outlook for free cash flow. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. GOOGLE CLOUD IS BECOMING A MUCH BIGGER PROFIT ENGINE Cloud revenue increased 103% year over year. But what stands out to me is the profitability. Cloud generated $11.1B in operating income, representing a margin of approximately 36.2%. That suggests Alphabet is doing more than simply adding AI infrastructure capacity. It's generating substantial operating profits from its Cloud business. Management also highlighted strong demand for its TPU systems. For me, this is one of the most encouraging developments in the report. 2. SEARCH AND ADVERTISING MISSED EXPECTATIONS 🔹 Search & Other: $63.4B vs $64.99B est. 🔴 🔹 YouTube Ads: $11.2B vs $11.4B est. 🔴 🔹 Google Advertising: $82.0B vs $83.6B est. 🔴 🔹 Google Services revenue: $96.3B vs $98.42B est. 🔴 🔹 Google Services operating income: $39.2B vs $40.8B est. 🔴 Google's advertising business remains enormous. But the misses matter because Search and advertising are still central to Alphabet's earnings and cash generation. I'd want to understand whether the shortfalls reflect changing advertiser demand, AI-driven changes in Search or other factors before drawing conclusions. 3. AI ADOPTION CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE 🔹 Gemini app: 1 billion users 🔹 YouTube Music and Premium: 150M+ subscribers, including trials 🔹 First-party model APIs: nearly 32B tokens processed per minute 🔹 API token volume: more than 4× year over year These are impressive indicators of adoption and usage. But user growth and token consumption aren't the same as revenue or profitability. The next question is how effectively Alphabet monetises that activity. 4. CAPITAL SPENDING IS PUTTING PRESSURE ON CASH FLOW 🔹 CapEx: $51.4B vs $55.2B est. 🔹 CapEx/revenue: approximately 40.3% 🔹 Operating cash flow: $42.3B vs $52.72B est. 🔴 🔹 Free cash flow: −$9.1B vs −$2.7B est. 🔴 🔹 Trailing 12-month FCF: $19.7B This is the part of the report I wouldn't ignore. Alphabet is generating substantial operating cash flow, but its infrastructure investment is currently absorbing even more. And lower-than-expected capex doesn't automatically make the cash flow picture better when operating cash flow also misses. 5. THE BALANCE SHEET PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY 🔹 Cash and marketable securities: $265.1B 🔹 Long-term debt: $125.1B Alphabet has substantial financial resources to support its investment programme. But financial capacity and attractive investment returns are two different things. MY TAKE I'm encouraged by Google's Cloud performance. Revenue doubling alongside a 36.2% operating margin is a powerful combination. The demand for TPUs and accelerating Gemini usage also strengthen the longer-term AI investment thesis. But I wouldn't overlook the weakness relative to expectations in Search, advertising and cash flow. Alphabet's AI opportunity is expanding rapidly, while the cost of building the infrastructure to support it is becoming increasingly visible. For me, the next test is whether Cloud profits and AI monetisation can grow quickly enough to restore free cash flow as capital expenditure remains elevated. The Cloud business is proving its strength. Now investors need to see how that translates into sustainable cash returns. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:34 PM UTC

MICROSOFT $MSFT JUMPS 4% AFTER HOURS AS AZURE GROWTH BEATS EXPECTATIONS. Two numbers stand out from Microsoft's Q1 FY2027 earnings: 🔹 Azure growth: 48% vs 44.7% expected. 🔹 CapEx: $39.4B vs $46.6B expected. Azure's acceleration is the bigger story for me. It shows strong Cloud demand despite Microsoft's already enormous scale. The lower CapEx figure is interesting, but I'd want to know whether it reflects improved spending efficiency or simply the timing of infrastructure deployment. My takeaway: Microsoft is delivering stronger Cloud growth than expected while spending less than analysts anticipated this quarter. The earnings call will tell us whether that combination is sustainable.

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:22 PM UTC

GOOGLE $GOOGL — CLOUD REVENUE SURGES 103%, AND SUNDAR PICHAI SAYS TPU DEMAND IS EXPANDING ACROSS CUSTOMERS. This is one of the most important developments in Alphabet's Q3 earnings. Google Cloud revenue reached $30.7B, with operating income of $11.1B and an operating margin of approximately 36.2%. What's particularly interesting to me is the growing demand for Google's custom TPUs. Google isn't simply buying AI compute capacity. It's designing its own chips, building the infrastructure and selling AI services through its Cloud platform. That vertical integration could become a significant competitive advantage. But there's another side to the story. Alphabet spent $51.4B on capital expenditure during the quarter, while free cash flow was negative $9.1B. My takeaway: Google Cloud is demonstrating exceptional growth and profitability. The next test is whether that momentum can translate into stronger consolidated free cash flow as infrastructure spending continues. AI demand is clearly strong. The returns on that investment will determine how valuable the opportunity becomes.

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:19 PM UTC

FEDEX $FDX Q3’26 — EARNINGS JUMP 28%, FULL-YEAR GUIDANCE RISES AND INTERNATIONAL REVENUE GROWS 17%. FedEx delivered a strong quarter, with adjusted earnings comfortably exceeding expectations and management raising its full-year outlook. But what interests me most is whether stronger shipping activity and network efficiencies can translate into consistently higher profit margins. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $22.9B (+12% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $3.74 vs $3.36 est. 🟢 (+28% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted operating margin: 5.3% (+20 bps YoY) 🔹 U.S. domestic revenue: $14.7B (+10% YoY) 🔹 International revenue: $7.5B (+17% YoY) 2026 GUIDANCE — RAISED 🔹 Revenue growth: ~12%, previously ~11% 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $18.00–$18.60, previously $16.90–$18.10 🔹 Capital expenditure: $3.9B, unchanged The adjusted EPS guidance midpoint has increased from $17.50 to $18.30. That's an encouraging improvement in management's expectations. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. INTERNATIONAL GROWTH IS OUTPACING DOMESTIC International revenue increased 17%, compared with 10% growth in U.S. domestic revenue. That's encouraging for global shipping activity. But revenue growth alone doesn't tell us whether underlying package volumes are accelerating. I'd want to understand the contribution from pricing, shipment mix and volume. 2. PROFITABILITY STILL HAS ROOM TO IMPROVE 🔹 U.S. domestic operating income: $972M 🔹 U.S. domestic operating margin: 6.6% 🔹 International operating income: $297M 🔹 International operating margin: 3.9% International revenue is growing faster, but its operating margin remains below the domestic business. That makes network efficiency and shipment profitability important areas to watch. 3. NETWORK OPTIMISATION REMAINS CENTRAL Management highlighted progress in improving its logistics network and targeting higher-value shipping markets. I like the strategy. But the real test is whether those changes can generate sustained margin expansion rather than temporary cost savings. 4. PORTFOLIO CHANGES COMPLICATE THE EARNINGS COMPARISON 🔹 FedEx Freight separation: Reported $1.2B loss 🔹 Retained ownership: 19.9% 🔹 FedEx Supply Chain sale: Approximately $1.4B These transactions could reshape FedEx's business mix and financial profile. They also make it important to distinguish recurring operating earnings from accounting effects related to disposals and restructuring. 5. CAPITAL RETURNS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL 🔹 Share repurchases: $2.0B 🔹 Shares repurchased: 6.3M 🔹 Remaining buyback authorisation: $4.3B FedEx continues returning capital to shareholders while investing in its network. MY TAKE I like the stronger earnings performance and improved full-year outlook. International revenue growth is encouraging, and management's focus on network efficiency could support profitability over time. But the 5.3% adjusted operating margin shows there's still work to do. For me, the next stage of the investment case depends on whether FedEx can translate higher revenue, better asset utilisation and its restructuring programme into consistently stronger margins. Revenue growth is improving. The bigger opportunity is turning that growth into higher-quality earnings and cash flow. — EMMANUELINVEST

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:16 PM UTC

KLA $KLAC Q1’27 — REVENUE JUMPS 29%, EARNINGS RISE 39% AND Q2 GUIDANCE POINTS TO FURTHER ACCELERATION. KLA delivered another strong quarter, beating revenue and earnings expectations as semiconductor manufacturing investment continued to support demand. But what interests me most is the company's outlook. Management expects revenue to rise to approximately $4.7B next quarter, suggesting momentum is continuing into the December period. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $4.14B vs $4.04B est. 🟢 (+29% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.22 vs $1.18 est. 🟢 (+39% YoY) 🔹 Semiconductor Process Control: $3.75B 🔹 Specialty Semiconductor Process: $139.5M 🔹 PCB & Component Inspection: $242.2M Q2 FY2027 GUIDANCE 🔹 Revenue: $4.7B ± $200M vs $4.54B est. 🟢 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.44 ± $0.11 vs $1.38 est. 🟢 🔹 Non-GAAP gross margin: 62.5% ± 1% 🔹 GAAP gross margin: 61.8% ± 1% The midpoint of revenue guidance is approximately 13.5% above Q1 revenue. That's an encouraging sequential outlook. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. PROCESS CONTROL REMAINS THE CORE GROWTH ENGINE Semiconductor Process Control generated $3.75B, representing approximately 91% of quarterly revenue. That's where KLA's competitive position matters. As chip manufacturing becomes more complex, inspection and measurement become increasingly important for identifying defects, improving yields and reducing production costs. 2. AI IS INCREASING MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY Advanced AI processors, high-bandwidth memory and increasingly sophisticated semiconductor packaging require precise manufacturing processes. KLA benefits from that complexity through its process-control technologies. But I'd distinguish the structural opportunity from the timing of customer equipment orders. Strong AI demand doesn't eliminate the semiconductor industry's investment cycles. 3. THE Q2 OUTLOOK IS ENCOURAGING Revenue guidance of $4.7B exceeds the $4.54B consensus. Adjusted EPS guidance of $1.44 also exceeds expectations. For me, the outlook is more important than the quarterly beat because it suggests management expects demand to remain strong. 4. PROFITABILITY REMAINS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE Management expects a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 62.5% next quarter. That reflects the attractive economics of KLA's specialised technology. However, gross margin guidance isn't the same as realised operating profitability, and product mix can influence quarterly performance. 5. SHAREHOLDER RETURNS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL 🔹 Share repurchases: $935.8M 🔹 Dividends: $305.1M 🔹 Total capital returns: approximately $1.24B KLA continues returning capital to shareholders while investing in its business. I'd also want to assess free cash flow and valuation before judging how sustainable those returns are. MY TAKE I like KLA's positioning in the semiconductor supply chain. NVIDIA, AMD and other chip designers attract much of the attention, but manufacturing increasingly complex chips also requires advanced process-control equipment. KLA benefits from that need. The revenue acceleration and stronger-than-expected Q2 guidance are encouraging. But the investment case still depends on customer capital spending, manufacturing technology transitions and valuation. For me, KLA is one of the clearest ways to invest in the increasing complexity of semiconductor manufacturing—not simply the number of AI chips being sold. That's why these results matter. — EMMANUELINVEST

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:15 PM UTC

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:13 PM UTC

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:10 PM UTC

FORD $F Q3’26 — REVENUE FALLS 2%, BUT EARNINGS BEAT AND FREE CASH FLOW REACHES $4.7B. Ford delivered a better quarter than the headline revenue decline might suggest. Sales were weaker, but profitability, cash generation and capital efficiency showed encouraging signs. What interests me is whether Ford can sustain those improvements while managing its struggling EV business. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $49.5B (−2% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $0.49 vs $0.40 est. 🟢 🔹 Adjusted EBIT: $2.7B 🔹 Adjusted EBIT margin: 5.4% (+30 bps YoY) 🔹 Operating cash flow: $5.4B 🔹 Adjusted free cash flow: $4.7B 🔹 Adjusted ROIC: 13.3% (+320 bps YoY) FY2026 GUIDANCE 🔹 Adjusted EBIT: $10.5B–$11B, previously $10B–$11B 🔹 Adjusted FCF: $6B–$7B, unchanged 🔹 Capital expenditure: $9.5B–$10.5B, unchanged Management raised the lower end of its earnings outlook while maintaining its cash flow and investment expectations. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. PROFITABILITY IS IMPROVING DESPITE LOWER REVENUE Revenue declined 2%, but adjusted EBIT margin improved by 30 basis points. That suggests Ford's cost actions and operating improvements are helping offset weaker sales. But a 5.4% margin still leaves limited room for unexpected cost pressures. 2. THE EV BUSINESS REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE 🔹 Ford Blue revenue: $27.1B (−3% YoY) 🔹 Model e revenue: $1.2B (−31% YoY) The 31% decline in Model e revenue is significant. But revenue alone doesn't tell us whether the EV business is becoming more financially sustainable. I'd want to see its operating losses, unit economics and progress on reducing costs. 3. CASH FLOW IS THE BIGGEST POSITIVE Ford generated $4.7B in adjusted free cash flow during the quarter. That matters because the company is still investing heavily in manufacturing, vehicle development and electrification. Strong cash generation gives management more flexibility to fund those investments without putting additional pressure on the balance sheet. 4. FORD IS TRYING TO GROW BEYOND VEHICLE SALES Management highlighted record growth in software services and parts, alongside cost reductions and better asset utilisation. I find that strategically important. Recurring services and higher-margin aftermarket activities could help make earnings less dependent on vehicle sales alone. But Ford still needs to demonstrate how much these businesses can contribute to consolidated profitability. MY TAKE I like the improvement in Ford's capital efficiency. Adjusted ROIC reached 13.3%, while management raised the lower end of its full-year EBIT guidance. That's encouraging for a business operating in a highly competitive and capital-intensive industry. But the EV transition remains challenging, and Ford's 2029 target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin will require sustained execution. For me, the investment case isn't about Ford selling more vehicles at any cost. It's about generating stronger margins and cash returns from every dollar invested. That's what I'll be watching as the company moves into 2027. — EMMANUELINVEST

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:09 PM UTC

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:07 PM UTC

EBAY $EBAY Q3’26 — REVENUE RISES 14%, MARKETPLACE VOLUME JUMPS 15% AND GUIDANCE IMPROVES. BUT MARGINS DESERVE ATTENTION. eBay delivered a strong quarter, beating revenue and earnings expectations as marketplace activity continued to improve. What interests me most is the combination of higher transaction volumes, buyer growth and cash generation. But there's an important distinction between growing the marketplace and improving its profitability. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $3.2B vs $3.12B est. 🟢 (+14% YoY) 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.51 vs $1.41 est. 🟢 (+12% YoY) 🔹 GMV: $23.2B (+15% YoY) 🔹 Active buyers: 147M (+10% YoY) 🔹 Advertising revenue: $607M 🔹 Non-GAAP operating margin: 26.3% (−70 bps YoY) 🔹 Operating cash flow: $875M 🔹 Free cash flow: $749M FY2026 OUTLOOK 🔹 Revenue: $12.62B–$12.67B vs $12.54B est. 🟢 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $6.25–$6.30 vs $6.15 est. 🟢 Q4 GUIDANCE 🔹 Revenue: $3.19B–$3.24B vs $3.2B est. 🟡 🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.48–$1.53 vs $1.48 est. 🟡 The full-year outlook is ahead of consensus, although Q4 expectations are broadly in line. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. MARKETPLACE ACTIVITY IS IMPROVING GMV increased 15%, while active buyers grew 10%. That's encouraging because eBay needs both more customers and greater transaction activity to sustain its recovery. But I'd also want to understand how much of that growth is organic versus acquisition-related. 2. COLLECTIBLES AND LIVE COMMERCE ARE GAINING MOMENTUM 🔹 eBay Live reported a record quarter. 🔹 TCGplayer exceeded $1B in trailing-12-month GMV. 🔹 Goldin reported record GMV. These businesses strengthen eBay's position in specialist categories where buyers value selection, authenticity and community. 3. DEPOP EXPANDS EBAY'S RECOMMERCE OPPORTUNITY eBay acquired Depop for $1.4B in cash. I find this strategically interesting because it expands eBay's exposure to younger consumers and second-hand fashion. But acquisitions need to generate returns, not simply add marketplace volume. 4. PROFITABILITY IS THE MAIN QUALIFICATION Non-GAAP operating margin declined 70 basis points to 26.3%. Revenue grew 14%, but adjusted EPS increased 12%. That's not alarming on its own, but it means the company still needs to demonstrate that stronger marketplace activity can translate into sustained margin expansion. 5. CASH GENERATION REMAINS A STRENGTH 🔹 Free cash flow: $749M 🔹 Shareholder returns: $827M 🔹 Buybacks: $689M 🔹 Dividends: $138M eBay continues generating substantial cash while returning capital to shareholders. MY TAKE I like the improvement in eBay's marketplace activity. GMV growth, rising active buyers and momentum in specialist categories suggest the business is becoming more competitive. But I wouldn't judge the turnaround on revenue growth alone. The next test is whether eBay can sustain buyer engagement, integrate Depop successfully and translate stronger marketplace activity into better margins and free cash flow per share. The marketplace is growing again. The quality and profitability of that growth will determine how compelling the investment becomes. — EMMANUELINVEST

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:06 PM UTC

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 8:03 PM UTC

T-MOBILE $TMUS Q3’26 — REVENUE BEATS, EPS JUMPS 34% AND FREE CASH FLOW GUIDANCE IMPROVES. T-Mobile delivered another strong quarter, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. But what interests me most is how the company is combining customer growth, improving profitability and substantial cash generation. KEY NUMBERS 🔹 Revenue: $23.6B vs $23.14B est. 🟢 (+7.4% YoY) 🔹 EPS: $3.22 vs $2.91 est. 🟢 (+34% YoY) 🔹 Net income: $3.5B (+27% YoY) 🔹 Core adjusted EBITDA: $9.6B (+11% YoY) 🔹 Service revenue: $19.4B (+6% YoY) 🔹 Postpaid service revenue: $16.3B (+9% YoY) FY2026 GUIDANCE — IMPROVED 🔹 Core adjusted EBITDA: $37.35B–$37.45B, previously $37.1B–$37.5B 🔹 Operating cash flow: $28.7B–$28.8B, previously $28.4B–$28.8B 🔹 Adjusted FCF: $18.7B–$18.8B, previously $18.4B–$18.8B 🔹 CapEx: ~$10B The key change is that management has raised the lower end of its cash flow expectations while narrowing the ranges. WHAT'S CHANGING 1. CUSTOMER GROWTH REMAINS HEALTHY 🔹 Postpaid accounts: 35M (+3% YoY) 🔹 Net account additions: 274,000 🔹 Postpaid ARPA: $155.73 (+4% YoY) I like the combination of customer additions and higher average revenue per account. It suggests T-Mobile is growing its customer base while generating more revenue from each account. 2. PROFITABILITY IS GROWING FASTER THAN REVENUE Revenue increased 7.4%, while core adjusted EBITDA grew 11% and EPS rose 34%. That's encouraging operating performance. But I'd also distinguish underlying operating improvement from the effects of taxes and other factors on EPS growth. 3. CASH FLOW SUPPORTS SHAREHOLDER RETURNS 🔹 Q3 operating cash flow: $7.3B (−2% YoY) 🔹 Q3 adjusted FCF: $5.1B (+5% YoY) 🔹 Shareholder returns: $3.5B 🔹 Buybacks: $2.4B 🔹 Dividends: $1.1B For me, this is one of the strongest aspects of the investment case. T-Mobile is investing heavily in its network while continuing to return substantial capital to shareholders. 4. THE NETWORK REMAINS CENTRAL TO ITS STRATEGY Management highlighted continued network performance leadership and opportunities across wireless, broadband and adjacent services. The challenge is maintaining customer growth and pricing strength in a competitive telecommunications market. MY TAKE I like the consistency of T-Mobile's operating performance. Customer growth remains positive, revenue per account is increasing and profitability is expanding. The improved cash flow outlook also supports continued shareholder returns. But I wouldn't assess the investment on earnings growth alone. Competition, network investment requirements, leverage and valuation still matter. The question I'm watching is whether T-Mobile can sustain customer growth and cash generation while continuing to reward shareholders. — EMMANUELINVEST

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 6:02 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest8h

THE FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES AT 4.00%. NO SURPRISE. THE MESSAGE THAT FOLLOWS MATTERS MORE. The Federal Reserve has left its benchmark rate unchanged, exactly as markets expected. 🔹 Fed rate: 4.00% 🔹 Previous: 4.00% 🔹 Consensus: 4.00% For me, the decision was never the main event. What matters now is whether Powell signals room for a December cut or suggests rates need to remain restrictive for longer. I'll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar and how growth stocks respond. With Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet $GOOGL reporting tonight, investors are facing two important questions: Where are interest rates heading, and are AI investments delivering the returns needed to justify their scale? The Fed sets the financial backdrop. Earnings will test the fundamentals.

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Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 5:25 PM UTC

@EmmanuelInvest8h

GOOGLE $GOOGL JUST UNVEILED GEMINI 4 CARBON. THE CYBERSECURITY RESULTS ARE WHAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. Ahead of tonight's Alphabet earnings, Google's latest AI model is showing strong performance across cybersecurity, reasoning and autonomous workflows. A few benchmarks stand out: 🔹 AA Intelligence Index: 59, ahead of GPT-6 Astra at 57. 🔹 SEC-bench Pro: 88.2%. 🔹 ExploitGym: 54.8%. 🔹 CWE-bench: 71.0%. 🔹 Agents' Last Exam: 77.4%. 🔹 GraphWalks: 96.2%. But Google doesn't lead everywhere. Claude remains ahead on OSWorld-2.1, while GPT-6 Astra leads FrontierSWE 2. That's worth acknowledging. WHAT INTERESTS ME I see cybersecurity and enterprise automation as potentially important areas for AI monetisation. Businesses already spend heavily on security, software maintenance and operational efficiency. If increasingly capable models can reliably handle more of that work, the commercial opportunity could be substantial. But benchmarks are only the starting point. MY TAKE Google is demonstrating technical progress, but the investment question is whether that progress translates into enterprise adoption, recurring revenue and attractive margins. With Alphabet reporting tonight, I'll be watching Google Cloud growth, Gemini monetisation and the economics of its AI infrastructure spending. The benchmark competition is fascinating. The business economics will determine who ultimately captures the value.

Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor · Oct 28, 2026 · 4:05 PM UTC