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Joined August 2020
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if debt is shut off for anyone without real revenue outside AI, tomorrow's tells are:
$CRWV $NBIS $APLD $IREN vs $NVDA
$ORCL (heavy debt, big buildout)
$HYG / $JNK (are credit spreads widening?)
small neoclouds gapping down while $NVDA holds = it's a credit story, not an AI story
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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