Brandon Dietz (@EquiCompound) header
Brandon Dietz (@EquiCompound) profile picture

Equity Analyst and Investor. Hunting for exceptional businesses. In-depth research available at https://teapawt.net/t.co/EYY5FlJWvd.

Ohio
Joined December 2021
Nice slide from fiber cement siding powerhouse $JHX summarizing key estimates sourced from external data providers on CY'24 industry growth for US new construction and repair & remodel
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Source - $RBLX Investor Day
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$RBLX developer economics are rapidly improving with scale These developer payout figures might surprise you… - Top 10 – avg ~$27mln/yr (+1.5x vs. 2020) - 100th Largest – makes ~$1mln/yr (+2.2x vs. 2020) - 1000th Largest – makes ~$65k/yr (+4.5x vs. 2020)
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Branch proximity is also exceptional, with strong scope for branch consolidation… - $SITE's Gaithersburg branch is ~0.1mi from Newsom's - $SITE's Burtonsville branch is ~3.0mi from Newsom’s in Fulton
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Turning to the Newsom Seed deal, this is a pretty textbook $SITE acquisition – a two branch distributor of agronomics operating in suburban markets between Baltimore and Washington DC This deal helps further add density, as $SITE already has ~10 branches across the two MSA’s
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Similar to last year, $SITE's 2023 deals continue to orient towards companies focused on hardscape distribution ~5 out of ~11 deals and ~46 out of ~62 (74%) acquired branches are primarily hardscape focused…
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Recall - $SITE reported $300mln in acquired sales on the Q3 call, which included 10 acquired co’s with 59 branches (~$5.1mln/branch) Adding in the Newsom Seed deal, which has 2 branches, we estimate $SITE has now acquired ~$310mln in sales for 2023 YTD (using ~$5mln a branch)
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$SITE continues to consolidate a still highly fragmented landscape distribution vertical… A surge in M&A in August, including a large ~35 branch deal, combined with today’s acquisition of Newsom Seed, puts $SITE at 11 deals YTD with a record ~$310mln in estimated acquired sales
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Surprising given the very substantial slowing in remodeling project completions so far this year, which have yet to see a growth inflection...
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Even with widespread deceleration in home improvement & remodeling demand, pro contractors across the space actually expect better topline growth in 2024 vs. 2023… Via @JBREC – pro-outlook is for +2.5-4.3% growth in 2024 vs. 2023 growth of +0.5%-2.5% $FND
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Zooming out – while global share is a bit lower – $SSD also has ~54% share in wood connectors across North America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim
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Building products player Simpson Manufacturing $SSD has an impressive ~75% US market share position in wood connectors…
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$FND is reaching impressive density in some of its most mature market MSA’s, like NYC (11), Dallas (10), Atlanta (10), and Washington, DC (7)…
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Turning to market mix – unsurprisingly $FND continues to over index towards more mature markets – consistent with $FND guidance and a wise approach given the macro backdrop...
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For reference - $FND has been struggling with store opening cadence due to sustained “industry wide construction delays”, which have been delaying completion times and openings…
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This is a pretty formidable target, but not quite unprecedented - $FND succesfully opened +6 new stores in April & November last year
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