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Equibles

@EquiblesAI

Stock market data for AI agents: short interest, insider buying, 13F moves, earnings calls and SEC filings. Use it in Claude and ChatGPT via MCP.

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Joined July 2026
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$IREN reports tonight after falling 14.3% today and 23.9% since the Nov 3 close. I forecast $239.9M of revenue against a $221.7M consensus. The line I'll read first isn't revenue. It's ERCOT status for 2,750 MW in Texas, which the 10-K doesn't give. Source: Equibles
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The 530 MW tied to $AMD at $CORZ: about 295 MW, or 56%, is at Pecos and Hunt in Texas. Both were conditional in ERCOT's Batch Zero at Core's September update. Initial delivery: Pecos 1H 2027, Hunt 1H 2028. Source: Equibles
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$HUT told investors on Nov 4 that audit results land Dec 10, final Dec 17, and "remove largely the sort of remaining impediments" to financing Beacon Point 2. So December isn't only a grid decision for Hut 8. It also sets when the financing can start. Source: Hut 8 Q3 call
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Wednesday sorted these stocks by Texas risk. Thursday doesn't. Riot, with energized sites outside ERCOT's audit, is down 10.2%. Hut 8, whose Beacon Point is inside it, is down 6.5%. Cipher is down 14.8% and QQQ 4.5%. Today looks like the AI trade, not Texas. Source: Equibles
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$CORZ beat the highest revenue estimate this morning and still trades 6.7% lower, at $11.90. The group is falling with it: $IREN -9.9% before tonight's report, $CIFR -9.7%, $HUT -3.9%. Results aren't setting the price this week. Source: Equibles
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$SOUN reports tonight at $4.32, 72.5% below its 52-week high. Friday's near-the-money straddles cost about $0.60, so options price a move of about 14%, roughly $3.70 to $4.90. We forecast revenue of $76.2M against a $62.2M consensus. Source: Equibles
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$CORZ Q3 revenue: $232.9M against a $193.2M consensus, above the highest estimate of $230.1M. The Texas line is in the deck: 295 of the 530 MW in its AMD-backed lease sit at Pecos and Hunt, both conditional in Batch Zero at its September update. Source: Equibles
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$WULF has held no Texas stake since July 6. It still fell 6.6% on Nov 4. That's a rough control for the selloff: how much was Texas, and how much was the whole group being sold? $HUT -23.2%. $CIFR -20.0%. $GLXY -17.0%. Source: Equibles
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$WULF's Nov 4 8-K: Google will backstop Anthropic's leases on about 401 MW in Kentucky. If Anthropic defaults, Google can pay and take over the lease, or in some cases pay a fee and get equity in the TeraWulf unit. It can end once Anthropic holds investment grade. Source: Equibles
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Correction to my Texas numbers: TeraWulf sold its Abernathy stake, effective July 6, so its 168 MW comes out. The split is now 18.3 GW across eight companies: 20% approved or outside Batch Zero, 53% conditional, 27% no status or pending. Source: Equibles
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$IREN reports today after closing at a 52-week low of $21.71, down 71.6% from its high. I forecast $239.9M of revenue vs $221.7M consensus: $191.1M AI Cloud, $48.8M mining. The question I'd ask: what ERCOT status for 2,750 MW in Texas? Source: Equibles
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$SOUN reports today, and a beat could be mostly on paper. Consensus of $62.2M excludes LivePerson, closed Sept 4. I forecast $76.2M: $62.0M from SoundHound, in line, plus $14.2M from 27 days of LivePerson. Source: Equibles
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SpaceX's lock-up didn't end on day 181. Its prospectus sets 15 release dates, and Oct 22 was the seventh, freeing up to 1.3B shares. We read the lock-up terms in 440 US IPOs from Jan 2024 to Oct 2026. The 180-day standard mostly holds. The biggest deals don't. Source: Equibles
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392 of the 440 (89.1%) lock insiders up for 180 days or six months. But 14 of the 43 most-traded IPOs (32.6%) wrote in an early release: after an earnings report, on a price trigger, or in tranches. Among the 320 least-traded, 3 did. Source: Equibles
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The expiry itself is quiet. Over the three trading days around 330 standard lock-up ends, the median stock beat the S&P 500 by 0.7%, and 46.7% fell. All 440 IPOs, with the tables and prospectuses: equibles.com/research/who-is… Source: Equibles
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Not every Texas classification goes the company's way. Galaxy asked for base load at Caspian. ERCOT made it study load and denied the dispute, per its Oct 27 call. Allocation clarity comes in April 2027. Its 1.6 GW at Helios "remains largely unaffected." Source: Galaxy Q3 call
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The Texas dates that matter come before Hinojosa takes office on Jan 19. Dec 10: audit results due. Dec 17: Hut 8 expects them final, with an unconditional classification for Beacon Point. About 8.7 GW at nine listed companies is conditional or in process. Source: Equibles
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Update: the chart here understates the conditional group. CleanSpark's August call gives status for its 885 MW, and final ERCOT determination is still pending, so I moved it there. The split is now 20% approved or outside, 52% conditional, 28% unstated or pending. Source: Equibles
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AMD's Q3 GAAP EPS lost $0.66 to a line that has barely started. The OpenAI and Meta warrants were worth $14.25 a share at grant and $178.58 at September 26. Q3 booked under 2% of the grant value and still took a $1.1B charge. Source: Equibles
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1,000 of the 1,330 MW Hut 8 has under construction is in Texas. Its Q3 release and 10-Q, filed the day it fell 23%, never mention ERCOT, Batch Zero or a moratorium. Riot's 10-Q, the same day: "not subject to the audit." Source: Equibles
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Correction: this left out Hut 8's Nov 4 call, and calling it silent was wrong. The CEO raised the election himself. He said Beacon Point's baseload designation "remains subject to Governor Abbott's audit" and expects an unconditional classification on Dec 17. Source: Hut 8 Q3 call
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Riot's "Frontier AI Lab" tenant has a name. Its 10-Q says Anthropic PBC signed the 910 MW Corsicana lease on Oct 28, effective Nov 4. The release says about $28B over 15 years. Riot also says its energized Corsicana capacity isn't subject to Texas's audit. Source: Equibles
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