Ernie | Election enjoyer | Predictions, maps & occasional commentary. Canada and beyond. The superior Muppet. 🍁
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Israeli General Election forecast - October 27, 2026:
🩵 Yashar - Gadi Eisenkot | 17.16% - 23 seats
🔵 Linkud - Benjamin Netanyahu | 16.92% - 22 seats
🟦 Together - Naftali Bennett | 10.82% - 14 seats
🩷 The Democrats - Yair Golan | 7.17% - 9 seats
🔴 Joint list - 7.01% - 9 seats
🟠 Otzma Yehudit | 6.18% - 8 seats
⚫ Shas | 6.11% - 8 seats
🔷 Visrael Beiteinu | 5.85% - 8 seats
⚪ United Torah Judaism | 5.84% - 7 seats
🟣 Religious Zionism | 5.29% - 7 seats
🟢 Ra’am | 4.29% - 5 seats
Below Threshold:
🟤 Reservists–New Economic Party - 2.96%
🟡 Amcha Yisrael - 2.81%
⚫ Haredi Public - 0.80%
🟪 Noam - 0.45%
⚪ All other lists combined -0.35%
_______________
Change bloc - 54 seats
Netanyahu Bloc - 52 seats
Joint List / Ra'am - 14 seats
Israeli General Election forecast - October 27, 2026:
🩵 Yashar - Gadi Eisenkot | 17.16% - 23 seats
🔵 Linkud - Benjamin Netanyahu | 16.92% - 22 seats
🟦 Together - Naftali Bennett | 10.82% - 14 seats
🩷 The Democrats - Yair Golan | 7.17% - 9 seats
🔴 Joint list - 7.01% - 9 seats
🟠 Otzma Yehudit | 6.18% - 8 seats
⚫ Shas | 6.11% - 8 seats
🔷 Visrael Beiteinu | 5.85% - 8 seats
⚪ United Torah Judaism | 5.84% - 7 seats
🟣 Religious Zionism | 5.29% - 7 seats
🟢 Ra’am | 4.29% - 5 seats
Below Threshold:
🟤 Reservists–New Economic Party - 2.96%
🟡 Amcha Yisrael - 2.81%
⚫ Haredi Public - 0.80%
🟪 Noam - 0.45%
⚪ All other lists combined -0.35%
_______________
Change bloc - 54 seats
Netanyahu Bloc - 52 seats
Joint List / Ra'am - 14 seats
WINNIPEG ELECTION FORECAST:
🟢 GILLINGHAM - 38.40% (+15.30 pts) ✅
🔵 KLEIN - 23.10%
🔴 REDDEN - 15.80%
⚪️ OTHERS - 22.70%
GILLINGHAM VICTORY +15.30 pts.
BRANDON MAYORAL ELECTION FORECAST:
FAWCETT - 56.84 (+13.68 pts) ✅
ISLEIFSON - 43.16%
FAWCETT VICTORY +13.68 pts.
Oh i'm sleeping well tonight.
Praying I get in a video, I need the exposure 🙏
Thank you @truckdriverpleb!
Despite not being very "on the dot" with the percentages, I still accurately predicted every election with the exception of Mississauga.
Not bad. Not good either.
• Toronto: Chow ✅
• Ottawa: Sutcliffe ✅
• Brampton: Brown ✅
• Mississauga: Crombie ❌
• Markham: Scarpitti ✅
• London: Morgan✅
• Hamilton: Loomis✅
• Guelph: Caron✅
• Vaughan: Del Duca ✅
• St. Catharines: Siscoe ✅
Last calls for requests.
Current projections:
• Toronto: Chow +4.43 pts (50.85%–46.42%)
• Ottawa: Sutcliffe +15.35 pts (47.82%–32.47%)
• Brampton: Brown +57.87 pts (64.82%)
• Mississauga: Crombie +2.24 pts (32.42%–31.18%)
• Markham: Scarpitti +49.55 pts (68.47%)
• London: Morgan +32.53 pts (54.72%)
• Hamilton: Loomis +20.25 pts (48.65%)
• Guelph: Caron ~+8.2 pts (42.87%–34.63%)
• Vaughan: Del Duca +57.3 pts (78.64%–21.36%)
• St. Catharines: Siscoe ~+60.4 pts (71.83%–11.47%)
