In 2026, how would US markets react to an announcement of further US fiscal stimulus (say notable stimulus checks)?

The 10Y Anniversary Conference for @ExanteData in cooperation with @vandaresearch in NYC this week was one of the top highlights of of my entire career. The feedback has really been incredible, and it makes all the hard work worth while. Having clients fly in from all over the world for OUR event(s) was really special, and it speaks to the long-term client links we have been building over the past ten years. To be honest, I was pretty nervous about whether the @SecScottBessent could actually make it given the volatile situation around Iran. But we managed to reshuffle the schedule last minute and move to video, right before he had to step into a cabinet meeting. It was also incredible to have a live monetary policy speech and Q&A with the Bank of England's Alan Taylor (after a week of huge moves in UK interest rates, we really need to think fresh). Overall, I am very grateful for the external speakers traveling to our event and delivering incredibly high value added content @AnnaEconomist @RichardClarida JJ Kinahan, Steve Quirk, Karen Karniol-Tambour, Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Ben Samild, Tivan Limited's @grantfwilson , Steve Saldanha @Brad_Setser and Andreas Schrimpf (who stepped in for the BIS's @HyunSongShin after his nomination to be governor of the BoK) and Marcel Kasumovich Finally, it was great to see the teams of @ExanteData and @vandaresearch work so seamlessly together, so quickly after the combination of the two firms; thanks to Angus Hume for working hard on the integration. I will post more on this milestone event in coming days. But this was my quick initial impressions. If you want more color you can ping email [email protected] (the videos will be ready and edited tomorrow) Thanks to everybody for making this happen!

BIG NEWS TODAY homepage.exantedata.com/vand…

Almost 10 years ago, @ExanteData was founded in a tiny office with room for 3 people in downtown Manhattan. We have come a long way since and we have an incredible global team, a growing data platform, and a fantastic network of clients and policy contacts around the world. To celebrate our upcoming anniversary, we have put together a special one-day Macro Conference in New York on March 26, with some very high profile speakers (in addition to regular voices from @ExanteData ). We would like to thank our clients for 10 Years of support. We are most grateful! I hope to see many of you in person in 2026... For more information: [email protected]

Heading to the New York Fed’s annual central bank seminar to give the opening talk (on geopolitical risk and markets). Extremely topical…

I will comment more on this (when I have a gap in the schedule). But what is interesting about gold is not so much the big upside returns (orange bars). But rather that they are happening with so modest drawdowns. What does that tell you?

Main stories today: ILS stronger on Gaza peace plan hope CNH stronger and better industrial profits data

USD leaking into FOMC CE3 coming back (after Poland/Russia tension last week) NOK gaining (second guessing cut?)

CE3 is weaker after Poland shot down Russian drones on their territory and (asked NATO for help) Scandies stronger after higher inflation data (in Norway). USD mostly stuck into inflation data...

JPY underperforming after LPD leadership uncertainty. USD soft vs Asia (NFP catch up effect it seems)

JPY underperforming on the margin, as risk sentiment recovers on better US tech performance USD now waiting for NFP / labor signals

Dollar starting post-summer trading with a bounce... USDGBP in particular spiking (w UK curve steepening not helping)

USDCNH leading USD/Asia lower (this is pretty rare, and consistent with more STRATEGIC shifts in China's situation, BoP etc)

Almost not reaction to the 'Cook issue' so far, which is interesting

maybe the market is reducing ceasefire hopes (CE3 weaker, oil stronger, EURNOK down) meanwhile, USD is mostly stuck

NZD key underperformer of the day (driven by dovish cut today), dragging AUD with it. But TWD, KRW are also down, which seem like a tech story (consistent with stock market drawdown) CTAs are also close to a further risk reduction move

Markets are waiting for US CPI, and the moves are small (but there are are a tendency for ECB cuts to be priced out further, and EUR is edging up in crosses, and reduced hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire is pushing CE currencies in the same direction)