Facultad Militar Conjunta

“Gerasimov, el estratega de Putin” es el libro del coronel Marcelo Javier Calderón que analiza la personalidad, el pensamiento militar y la influencia de Valeri Gerasimov, jefe del Estado Mayor General de Rusia. La publicación se presentó en la Escuela Superior de Guerra para conversar sobre quién es, qué propone el general y sus ideas de guerra moderna y zona gris, todo en torno a la mal llamada “Doctrina Gerasimov”. el3k.short.gy/LexgoB-DEF ✍️ @malustella03

Since last evening and up to now, the Russians have attacked Ukraine with more than a hundred different weapons – jet-powered drones, loitering munitions, and ballistic missiles. A significant portion of these strike assets were shot down. But unfortunately, not all of them. An ordinary residential building was destroyed in Kharkiv; the rescue operation continued virtually all night as first responders searched for people under the rubble. Four people were killed in this strike on the building in Kharkiv. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. In Kharkiv alone, 41 people were injured in just one evening. There was also a particularly vile ballistic missile strike on Kyiv – five missiles that hit civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, we received no early warning from our partners about this strike. Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives, and this is one of the most critical issues. This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed – when there is an early warning about ballistic missiles. Ukraine has not carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries or the energy sector in general for the two days since the American President announced an energy ceasefire. But Russia did not heed the American President. During this time, the Russians have attacked both our energy facilities and our critical infrastructure, sending absolutely clear signals that they have no intention of refraining from strikes on Ukraine. Nineteen regions of our country have come under attack in these two days alone. Our position remains unchanged: Ukraine is ready for reciprocal steps toward de-escalation, and effective pressure on Russia is needed to make de-escalation happen. Wars end when the aggressor realizes that it cannot prolong the war. Global pressure on Russia contributes to exactly that – bringing peace closer. But direct or indirect support for Russia, slowing down assistance to Ukraine, and making it harder to protect lives against ballistic missiles will certainly not help bring peace. Everyone needs peace. A strong America, a strong Europe, and strong partners are needed. Thank you to everyone who is truly helping!

Starlink connectivity at speeds of up to 160 km/h is being restored. Removing Starshield’s speed limit entirely is now critical for Ukraine’s defense. Thank you, @elonmusk. We hope for your continued support.

I can't help but express only careful optimism about the colossal Ukrainian gains. Russian army group Zapad is experiencing huge issues, sure. Russia may need to mobilise again as their own front becomes thinner, sure. I think there is a reasonable chance they do so. But a few considerations: Ukraine have committed significant manpower to Lyman for nearly 6 months now, with counterattacks first beginning at Ridkodub and Zelena Dolyna. Now, although the rapid advance from Mykolaivka to Ray-Oleksandrivka and Kalenyky seems like it was a blitz, this has occured as a result of 1-2 weeks of offensive actions. Ukraine is conducting this without significant aerial support, and the previous counterattacks leading up to this point were affected by the exact opposite, with Sentinel imagery showing huge concentrations of Russian glide bomb strikes on the attacking Ukrainians around Lyman for months on end. Yet, Ukraine is also counterattacking north of Kupyansk, in south Donetsk oblast near Komar, has redeployed units to Orikhiv direction, and is holding almost the whole front steady right now. What do we know about attrition? It is a measure of the strategic balance, not necessarily tactical developments and especially not frontline gains. A country can be winning a war of attrition whilst losing ground, or vice versa. All the indications point to Russia having a huge attritional advantage. 5x the population, Vehicle losses, glide bomb strikes, domestic production of instruments of attrition like artillery, MLRS and FPV drones. Russia still recruits in excess of 20-30k per month through financial incentives. Ukraine relies entirely on forced conscription, which has been ramping up. Even the Polish PM, who has an incentive to lie in favour of Ukraine, admitted that losses for Ukraine recently are 27k killed and wounded per month. Absolutely everything points toward the fact that this isn't an inversion of the strategic, holistic direction of the war. What can we learn from history? Well, in World War 1, as the German Empire was beginning to suffer catastrophic manpower and equipment shortages relative to the Western Allies, general Erich Von Ludendorff decided to launch a desperate offensive, throwing everything they had left at the Western Allies prior to the arrival of US forces on the front. This became known as the Ludendorff offensive, and German "stormtroopers" made substantial gains before being eventually absorbed as the Allies methodically fell back. Eventully, the Germans ran out of steam, and the front began rapidly rolling back right toward Germany itself. Germany surrendered before the Allies stepped foot on their home territory. Warfare has changed alot, but the fundamental principles of attrition haven't. Ukraine is unable to fight asymetrically and conduct an elastic defence due to political constraints. The AFU is being worn down faster than Russia can be. The question is, where is it all coming from for Ukraine? How are they able to conduct these offensives, despite the very decisive attrition that has already been inflicted upon them and is continuing to be so? The AFU is an extremely brave and professional fighting force. They, on paper, have alot of manpower left, they could lower mobilisation age to 23, 21, 18, and could likely continue holding the front. But, lets go back to the lessons from history. The Imperial German Army collapsed long before they physically ran out of manpower entirely. They collapsed when the overall long-term built up attrition since 1914 that had been supressed, all came at once. Attrition is abstract and extremely complex. Its alot more than just one number or a couple of equations. I'd like to quote WillyOAM, a former Australian soldier who has spent time in Ukraine and has extensive, extensive knowledge on warfare. As he sat in a high-rise building in Kramatorsk in May 2022, he said "This war is always on the eve of ending. It could be tommorow, it could be in 5 years". Attrition is in some ways a mysterious force, and we could wake up in 2 weeks to find Russian armoured columns rolling down highways toward Kyiv. We could also wake up on a random Sunday in 2034 to see that the case. We simply have too many unknown variables to predict when a collapse will occur. One thing i can say with some certainty: With Russia likely to conduct more border incursions, including into Chernihiv, something will give way eventually. Potentially extremely dramatically, or subtly spread across the whole front. Look what happened when Russia launched their Kharkiv incursion: Russia swept through Hirnyk, Novohrodivka, Kurakhove, and Selydove due to Ukraine being stretched thin. But the point of this post is that we need to keep in mind at all times the overall, holistic trajectory of the war.

Geolocated confirmed vehicle losses have been compiled and released for August 2026. Credit to HeyHeyHayden and LostArmour. In total, Russia lost 31 armoured vehicles whilst Ukraine lost 205. A ratio of 1:6.6 in favour of Russia. Excluding armoured cars and MRAPs, which Ukraine use in a large number behind the front whilst Russia barely does at all, Russia lost 30 vehicles whilst Ukraine lost 98. A ratio of 1:3.3 in favour of Russia. In regard to self-propelled artillery, which is an important indicator of capacity to inflict attrition, Russia lost 10 vehicles whilst Ukraine lost 39. A ratio of 1:3.9 in favour of Russia. No major changes in ratios compared to previous months. Unfortunately, Ukraine is continually on the wrong end of a huge attritional mismatch against a far larger power with a fully mobilised domestic war economy.

Ukraine F-16 Pilots Rationing Missiles as Russian Attacks Intensify | NEWSMAX2 Ukraine’s American-made F-16 fighter jets are defending the skies against Russian drones and cruise missiles — but a critical shortage of U.S.-made missiles is putting that mission at risk. In an exclusive NEWSMAX interview from Kyiv, Ukrainian F-16 wing commander “Phantom” tells foreign correspondent Shelby Wilder that Ukraine needs additional Patriot and AIM-120 missiles, warning that an aircraft without weapons is a “useless tool.” The shortage has reportedly become so severe that Ukrainian pilots are rationing missiles and, on some missions, relying on their F-16s’ onboard cannons to take down Russian aerial threats.

I just had a positive and productive meeting with President Trump @POTUS at UNGA. Both the U.S. and Ukraine want to see this senseless Russian war ended before winter. We discussed potential de-escalatory steps that can open up the way to diplomacy. I am grateful that in the meantime our teams keep working on launching Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine. This is what will help protect lives, should Russia spurn the negotiations and keep betting on ballistic missile terror against our people this winter and beyond. We also discussed other bilateral and multilateral issues, including a winter package of air defense for Ukraine. I thank President Trump, his team, and all the American people for their support.

Indeed, this Russian war against Ukraine and against common sense must be ended. From the first year of the full-scale invasion, its consequences have been far-reaching: the loss of many lives, the destruction of cities and villages, food security, energy challenges, the extraordinary pace of technological development, including autonomous drones, and the rapid advancement of strike capabilities never seen before. Every new week of this war, let alone every new year, adds more and more problems. From the very first minute, Ukraine has sought peace. We have already made dozens of diplomatic proposals on how to end this war with dignity, guarantee security, and prevent new Russian invasions. Right now, there is a dialogue with President Trump and America. There are also ideas on the table for bringing peace closer, starting with strong de-escalation steps. Ukraine’s energy sector, critical infrastructure, and our food exports must stop being targets for Russia, and this will lead to matching de-escalation steps on our part. Solutions are possible. We are ready to work on this, and we will discuss it with our partners on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. I thank everyone who is helping! It will no longer be the case that only the country under attack suffers. The nature of war is now such that the aggressor will suffer as well. Technology makes this possible. The strength of countries’ leadership can – and must – deliver de-escalation, security, and peace. Thank you!

We may prefer certain formats of negotiations, but it's worse when there are no formats at all. I want to recognize the role of Steve and Jared in restarting the negotiation process today. It is important that the American team met with the head of Russia, and today with me, and that we discussed all the possibilities. We had a trilateral meeting with the participation of the Europeans, as well as a meeting of national security advisors, and I think we will do everything possible to restore these negotiations.

"Every decision made jointly with the Minister of Defence must strengthen the military, and every change we make must increase our effectiveness in the war today." Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi has presented his Principles of Leadership and Military Development in Wartime. Read more: mod.gov.ua/en/news/leadershi…