Chief Investment Strategist and Co-Head of Investments. Researcher of Financial Markets https://xitter.cf/t.co/V6c32YhRIG. Avid Reader. Proud New Orleanian. Father. Husband.

Connecticut, USA
Joined October 2009
AI is an existential crisis for higher education. 1) It’s presence requires a transform of curriculums and testing (all tests in class). No online classes for credit. 2) The preparedness required for entry into the workforce is much higher now. The bar is now, “will this person add more value than xxx token spend?” That’s a scary question.
A Brown professor gave his students a take-home midterm exam. After suspecting many cheated using AI, he made the final in-person. The orange dots are the midterm scores and the gray dots are the final scores. Looks like all but 3 cheated on the midterm.
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“Because every single thing you do today is something your younger self dreamed of and something your older self will wish they could go back and do.”
WARNING: Longer post (but worth reading or bookmarking for later). Your life has seasons. Each one is unique. Characterized by its own distinct desires, struggles, opportunities, and identity. But one reflection I've had recently is just how easy it is to completely disassociate with the present season. To give all your time and energy toward a longing for some nostalgic memory of a prior season or an anticipation for some beautiful state of a future season. You look back at the past and all you see is sunshine. Because it all worked out. You forget (or glaze over) the struggle you endured. You're here today. You made it. You're alive. You're doing fine. You look forward at the future and dream on what could be. You'll have so much more. More freedom. More purpose. More health. More deep connection. More everything. The past is beautiful and the future feels limitless. So, logically, you slowly start to treat everything about the present as the bridge. A dash connecting your past and your future. A gap to be crossed as quickly as possible. Everything you do today is in anticipation of some eventual end state. I'm doing this now, so that I can have that later. Unfortunately, the danger of that dissociation with the present is significant. You may spend your entire life living for a future that has a decidedly mirage-like property. You inch closer, but when it's right in front of you, it disappears and reappears on the horizon. You may spend your entire life skipping through the present, deferring your presence, your joy, and your very humanity to a future that never comes. In a classic French fable, a young boy is gifted with a magic ball of golden thread. He's told that if he simply pulls on the thread, time will leap forward. The catch, of course, is that once it's pulled, it can never be put back. The young boy takes advantage of the newfound powers. Each time he's faced with a boring day at school, a frustrating set of chores, or a scolding from his parents, he pulls the thread, skipping through to the good parts. As an adult, he continues, leaping through mundane struggles in his marriage, the friction of having a newborn, and the boredom at work. He finds himself pulling on the thread more and more, avoiding even the most minor inconveniences of his life. But when he wakes up one day and sees an old man looking back at him in the mirror, he's filled with regret. He realizes in that moment that as he chose to skip through the boredom, struggles, and friction, so too did he miss the real texture of being alive. How often do we all do the same? How easily do we default into this disassociation? Disconnecting from the present in anticipation of some future. A mentor recently asked me this: "Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?" It hit me hard. And to be honest, I haven't stopped replaying those words since he said them. Why are you in such a rush? The world wants you to rush into everything. Rushed decisions. Rushed conversations. Rushed relationships. Rushed timelines. In doing so, you slowly relinquish your agency. You give up your claim on your own life. Surrender authorship to a pen that was never even yours. In a world that wants you to rush, the ultimate act of rebellion is presence. Be in the season you're in. Don't romanticize the past, don't fantasize the future. Be here. Be now. Be in this. All of its texture, depth, and struggle. All of its joy, tension, and pain. Sit with the uncertainty. Become friends with it. Fall in love with it. Because every single thing you do today is something your younger self dreamed of and something your older self will wish they could go back and do. The good old days are happening, right now. And the next time you find yourself skipping through the present, remember these words: Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?
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Phenomenal crowd at Basis Northwest, the preeminent event for all things taxable investment management, hosted by @TaxAlphaInsider I really enjoyed presenting to my fellow tax nerds on the dominant theme in taxable wealth management today. Every advisor thinks deeply about what’s in their Tech Stack. We’re building the leading TAX STACK to help advisors with the dominant shift from pre-tax product to after-tax implementation platforms. Clients won’t tolerate packaged product. They demand portfolios bent around their objectives. They want customized Tax Design - the deliborate coordination of tax lots, cash flows, gifting, and tax loss harvesting across the household balance sheet - to maximize after-tax wealth. We help advisors automate and coordinate this complex problem through our Canvas Custom Indexing platform. @FTI_US @OSAMResearch
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Ehren Stanhope retweeted
I do more than memes... In Louisville, KY last week with @FranklnTempletn's @FactorInvestor and @sanctuarywp
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For any financial advisor or allocator interested in the tax management strategies, Direct/Custom Index, tax-aware long-short, 351, exchange funds, etc… follow Brent!
Schwab announced new limits on long/short SMAs today: 30% of adviser book, max leverage, min account size. This is structurally different from Fidelity's recent moves, but perhaps has the same root cause. Schwab's announcement mentions short security availability and pricing as an explanation. These changes are frustrating to those I've spoken with, but I think the operational reality is that sourcing shorts is more fragmented and challenging than many initially anticipated and the custodian/brokers are adjusting to accommodate that reality. DMs open if anyone has additional context.
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Ehren Stanhope retweeted
May I offer a different perspective on the whole transatlantic family feud brewing over NATO. Europeans are furious at what they call American unilateralism and "wars of choice," while Americans are done subsidizing allies who won't lift a finger when Washington actually needs them. Given all the sentimentality and historical baggage, there’s been a lot of bad blood and high grade insults thrown both ways. A lot of pride here is at stake. But given that I am not American or European, what I can provide is an Asian perspective. The whole thing looks very different as there are no blood ties or cultural nostalgia to pull me either way. Because of distance, the default Asian lens on America has always been colder, clearer, and far more pragmatic than the European one. Asians have never lived under the illusion that their relationship to the US is one based on shared values. If they ever did, the illusion was shattered during the Cold War. Instead, Asian nations saw the relationship to America as a cold, interest-driven bargain in a dangerous neighborhood full of communists, insurgents, and bigger powers. Fast forward to today, and this lesson still holds. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia all partner with America because their interests (not values) align - especially when it comes to countering China. These nations have reasons to be alarmed about Beijing's ambitions in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and across the Indo-Pacific. They don't need lectures about democracy or liberal international order to see the value in US forward presence, intelligence sharing, tech transfers, and security guarantees. It's a straight-up transactional deal: the US keeps the sea lanes open and the PLA at bay. Meanwhile, Asian nations host your bases, buy your weapons, and join your alliances (Quad, AUKUS, etc.). When interests diverge, they adjust pragmatically, without the drama and meltdown. Probably not many in the West know this, but one of the forces that shaped this attitude was the US pullout of Vietnam and the rest of America’s Cold War shenanigans. Lee Kuan Yew was one of America’s loudest cheerleaders in Southeast Asia. In 1967 he flew to Washington, testified to Congress, and begged Lyndon Johnson (and later Nixon) not to cut and run in Vietnam. He warned that a hasty US exit would trigger the dominoes - Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and then pressure on the rest of Southeast Asia. Singapore became a logistical hub, providing a haven for US troops on R&R, oil refineries supplying the American war machine, and Lockheed servicing aircraft. At one point, US military-related spending made up 15% of Singapore’s entire GDP. Singapore didn’t support the war because it loved American democracy but because it kept the communists tied up and bought Southeast Asia time to build up its own economy and military. Then came the pullout - the Paris Accords in 1973 and then Saigon falls in 1975. Despite all the lobbying, despite the blood and resources America had spent, domestic politics in the US (the anti-war movement, Congress, Vietnam syndrome etc.) ended it. LKY watched in disbelief as the superpower that had promised to hold the line simply walked away. The lesson was that American commitments are real only as long as they serve American interests and American voters don’t get tired. It’s a brutal one to internalize. LKY was disappointed and noted American “unreliability” but Singapore didn’t collapse into panic or anti-Americanism. They just recalibrated and kept pursuing pragmatism by building its own deterrent, diversifying partners, and later offered the US naval logistics access (Sembawang port) when the Philippines kicked them out of Subic Bay in the early 1990s. Malaysia drew the same conclusion. The Tunku was pro-Western and anti-communist early on, but Malaysia never joined SEATO and pushed ZOPFAN (Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality) instead. When the British announced their East-of-Suez withdrawal in 1968 and Nixon’s Doctrine (1969) told Asians “you defend yourselves first, we’ll just help,” Kuala Lumpur accelerated its neutralist tilt. The message was clear - don’t count on Washington to bleed indefinitely for distant allies. South Korea is similarly pragmatic but it operates under far higher stakes due to baggage from the Korean War and the ongoing North Korean threat. American intervention literally saved the South from conquest, resulting in a bond that is forged in blood. While South Korea had to learn the same lessons - that the American umbrella isn’t permanent, sharing a border with a nuclear-armed adversary forces tighter coupling with Washington. The reverberations of Nixon’s 1973 opening to Beijing cannot be understated. It shocked the entire region that America, the great anti-communist crusader, suddenly would cozy up to Mao to counter the Soviets. If Washington could flip on core principles when interests demanded it, why should smaller states pretend the relationship was about anything deeper? The core Asian critique of the European approach to dealing with America is that it is entirely bound up in moral values and civilizational kinship. This means that every disagreement feels like a betrayal and breeds resentment on both sides. Because Europe is so hyped up on abstract values, it makes NATO feel like a sacred club that America is disrespecting. Asia's interest-based lens sees alliances as tools - useful until they're not. Maybe Europe thinks the Asian approach is cynical but the irony is that this is actually what keeps Indo-Pacific partners far more reliable counterweights to China than many NATO members ever were against Russia.
So many longtime NATO supporters saying the same thing right now. I helped bring Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic into NATO. But denying us basing and overflight is inexcusable, as is their failure to help with Strait of Hormuz. No one asking them to bomb Iran, just let us use our bases and help escort ships. If they can’t do that, NATO has no purpose.
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Distinct change in market behavior today with gold and silver up despite general risk asset weakness, dollar up, oil up, and curve steepening.
With both sides now coming to the negotiating table, we could see volatility calm down as we move into Spring... HOWEVER... the WH will likely continue to apply kinetic pressure to facilitate negotiations with China (and Iran via proxy) on a path forward. It will take some time for the world to parse through the economic impact of intensified global competition, which will almost certainly impact supply chains, trade, and the global security apparatus. In 2026, we have seen two dramatic security shifts - a reincarnation of the Monroe doctrine with VZ in the Western Hemisphere, and a rewriting of the status quo in the Middle East with Iran. A third will manifest at some point. With Japan set to re-militarize and US-Sino negotiations set to begin, expect a reset in Asia as well, though hopefully much more subtle! While volatility may decline, one can argue it will settle in at either a higher absolute level or with greater dispersion within equity indexes until a clearer path is well-established.
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This is wild and incredibly scary at the same time.
This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump. It has proven effective in previous big Trump pivots. The "Pressure index" combines one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations and performance of the S&P 500 & t-bill yields. The higher it goes, the greater the chances of 🌮
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With both sides now coming to the negotiating table, we could see volatility calm down as we move into Spring... HOWEVER... the WH will likely continue to apply kinetic pressure to facilitate negotiations with China (and Iran via proxy) on a path forward. It will take some time for the world to parse through the economic impact of intensified global competition, which will almost certainly impact supply chains, trade, and the global security apparatus. In 2026, we have seen two dramatic security shifts - a reincarnation of the Monroe doctrine with VZ in the Western Hemisphere, and a rewriting of the status quo in the Middle East with Iran. A third will manifest at some point. With Japan set to re-militarize and US-Sino negotiations set to begin, expect a reset in Asia as well, though hopefully much more subtle! While volatility may decline, one can argue it will settle in at either a higher absolute level or with greater dispersion within equity indexes until a clearer path is well-established.
The most challenging thing about this market environment is that global macro factor correlations are trending towards 1, which means portfolio diversification is disappearing beneath the risk models. Look at a chart of stocks, gold, silver, bonds. It’s all correlated since the conflict in Iran broke out. Oil is the only diversifier, and as we saw yesterday, that has its own risks. Really tough time to allocate with conviction.
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The most challenging thing about this market environment is that global macro factor correlations are trending towards 1, which means portfolio diversification is disappearing beneath the risk models. Look at a chart of stocks, gold, silver, bonds. It’s all correlated since the conflict in Iran broke out. Oil is the only diversifier, and as we saw yesterday, that has its own risks. Really tough time to allocate with conviction.
Volatility set to continue this week as: 1. Despite the President's Friday tweet, kinetic actions are likely accelerating. 2. Degrossing and repositioning is rampant across asset classes. 3. Markets struggle to price in both an economic growth shock (recession) and an energy supply shock - obviously inter-related. 4. Equities are waking up to the possibility of a prolonged impaired growth trajectory. 5. Rates actually matter now to bellwethers given AI-related debt issuance. There is currently an asymmetric downside to being early back into risk assets. Important to note in this regime that bonds are no longer risk-free given inflation risks. We've been discussing this structural shift for a few years with clients. There will be an entry point, but it probably won't be a flash point as has existed in previous crises with the Fed swooping in to the rescue. They are hamstrung here in what I call Policymaker Purgatory.
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Ehren Stanhope retweeted
But Iran has weathered long periods of ultra-low oil exports. Back in 2020-22, Iran endured American "maximum pressure" on its petroleum industry, with exports at times down 90% from today's levels. And Iran didn't buckle then. Thus, it's unlikely to do so now. 🧵9/10
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Volatility set to continue this week as: 1. Despite the President's Friday tweet, kinetic actions are likely accelerating. 2. Degrossing and repositioning is rampant across asset classes. 3. Markets struggle to price in both an economic growth shock (recession) and an energy supply shock - obviously inter-related. 4. Equities are waking up to the possibility of a prolonged impaired growth trajectory. 5. Rates actually matter now to bellwethers given AI-related debt issuance. There is currently an asymmetric downside to being early back into risk assets. Important to note in this regime that bonds are no longer risk-free given inflation risks. We've been discussing this structural shift for a few years with clients. There will be an entry point, but it probably won't be a flash point as has existed in previous crises with the Fed swooping in to the rescue. They are hamstrung here in what I call Policymaker Purgatory.
This is going to be a challenging week in financial markets ahead. Investors will be forced to reconcile with either prolonged conflict or prolonged disruption in the flow of critical commodities. Either gets you to the same place, some version of extreme risk: existential (the Gulf States raison d’etre), economic (everyone loses during kinetic conflict), and inflation (lock in of critical energy, AI, and agricultural commodities). This conflict too shall pass, but on what timeline and what long-term impact to financial markets, nobody knows.
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The WH thought Epic Fury would be as easy as Absolute Resolve (VZ). Trump wants out, like yesterday. As long as the surviving Iranian regime agrees to keep oil flowing and leave Israel alone, a deal can be done. If so, there are two huge new massive suppliers of oil to the global market at a couple mb/d in the next few years, Oil vol crushed, global oil supply glut.
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One of the key challenges for the near-term was pointed out in @BobEUnlimited morning note, that wars are political, which is to say that the actions of the key players over the next few weeks may or may not be rational. You have a series of actors in a conflict for which some face economic hardship, some economic demise, and others existential risk. The decision matrices don't align right now. The reaction of market participants to whatever results will more likely be driven by their portfolio positioning, leverage, and realized volatility than their true view. Take a low conviction approach and position for the range of possibilities. Whatever level of conviction you think you have, cut it in half, then in half again, and position accordingly.
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This is going to be a challenging week in financial markets ahead. Investors will be forced to reconcile with either prolonged conflict or prolonged disruption in the flow of critical commodities. Either gets you to the same place, some version of extreme risk: existential (the Gulf States raison d’etre), economic (everyone loses during kinetic conflict), and inflation (lock in of critical energy, AI, and agricultural commodities). This conflict too shall pass, but on what timeline and what long-term impact to financial markets, nobody knows.
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👀
The Federal Reserve received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony last summer about the central bank’s building renovation project Powell statement: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
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This is an existential threat that every university/college board should be (is?) laser focused on…
Pretty interesting: Companies that have adopted AI aren't hiring fewer senior employees, but they have cut back on hiring juniors ones.
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Ehren Stanhope retweeted
It is increasingly clear foreign producers are not paying the tariffs. If they were, we'd see falling import prices in today's release (b/c they are reported pre-tariff). Import prices are instead continuing to rise.
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Just curious, who had on their bingo card at the beginning of the year that US would impose tariffs on EU that are greater than China? 🙃
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Bullish energy all around…
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