AFM is making the case for responsible regulation, against blanket bans, and for the freedom of American adults to make their own choices.
Joined April 2026
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This, from CFTC @ChairmanSelig, is the best explanation you'll ever hear on the difference between derivative contracts (which prediction markets offer) and casino wagers (which sportsbooks offer).
It's night and day.
A California goat herder couldn't find an insurer willing to cover a potentially devastating wage increase.
So he turned to @Kalshi, buying $50,000 in protection that paid out $500,000.
“Now he got paid as a form of insurance, as a hedge, to go and stay afloat.”
@mansourtarek to @Reuters
🇺🇸 Former CFTC commissioner @BrianQuintenz : "Kalshi is a fully regulated, fully licensed derivatives exchange that is regulated by the CFTC… the idea that these aren't well regulated… or they're not regulated at all is WRONG."
Americans For Fair Markets retweeted
Unlike casino-style gambling, @CFTC-regulated prediction markets operate under a federal regulatory system designed to protect market integrity and prevent manipulation.
Conflating the two ignores the fundamental distinction between gambling and regulated financial markets. @BloombergTV @tylerskendall
🚨 NBC4 Columbus highlights our message: Prediction markets are fundamentally different from gambling.
There's no house rooting against customers or profiting when they lose. Buyers trade with sellers. And sports are just one part of a much bigger market.
.@ChairmanSelig on manipulation in prediction markets: “We're gonna catch it.”
The CFTC and exchanges already monitor these nationwide markets.
Imagine the chaos of 50 states trying to enforce 50 different sets of rules on the same exchange.
Market manipulation has no place in CFTC-regulated markets.
With the midterm elections approaching, the @CFTC is closely monitoring prediction markets for attempts to distort trading activity or manipulate outcomes.
Let me be clear: Those who manipulate our markets will be held accountable. @BloombergTV @tylerskendall
🚨 @ChairmanSelig PUSHES BACK on states challenging federal authority over prediction markets.
Casino gambling is “very different from what's happening in our markets on order books.”
Without federal market regulation, “you've got nothing that's uniform across the country.”
🚨 Tungsten prices are up more than 500%, enough to wipe out a contract's profit margin before it ships.
An Ohio metals distributor just used event contracts on @Kalshi through @PillarHQ, with Susquehanna Predictions providing liquidity, to hedge against price swings.
The defense-critical metal has never had a listed futures market. Prediction markets are filling that gap.
Pillar, Kalshi and Susquehanna Predictions Complete Landmark Tungsten Hedge as Pressure Builds on a Defense-Critical Metal finance.yahoo.com/markets/co…
Americans For Fair Markets retweeted
Countless polls are designed simply to influence voting behavior. Pollsters have a million different tricks to game a result.
Kalshi and Polymarket, etc are much more accurate than lone polls. They can aggregate dispersed information into a probability.
So when you're reading about the midterms, my advice would be to ignore the polls but tune into the prediction markets.
Now, it's possible that entities can come into prediction markets with big volume to try to game the system, but smart traders can arbitrage that volume, so the issue generally works itself out.
So yes, the polls are not really worth your time in 2026.
This is sick behavior and sportsbooks should stop it.
americansforfairmarkets.com/…
Our latest @PhillyInquirer story on gambling apps: FanDuel wants its heavy bettors to bring their children to the Philadelphia Zoo this weekend for an "exclusive FanDuel VIP event." Addiction experts said they appear to be targeting kids.
inquirer.com/news/philadelph…
🚨 Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ sets the record STRAIGHT on market manipulation issues.
“All the issues we've seen to date have been on the sportsbooks.”
He says prediction markets face “much, much stricter” anti-manipulation standards.
🔥 "Imagine if every state had its own rules for the New York Stock Exchange… You don't have to be a psychic to see the potential problems."
Our op-ed in @WTEnews - Great Scott! Government wants to regulate predictions wyomingnews.com/opinion/gues…
Prediction markets are already trading at record scale. The only question left is who manages them.
A single federal standard keeps this activity onshore, transparent, and accountable, instead of a scattered mix of state fights.
🚨 Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ on @RuthlessPodcast explains how ordinary Americans are outperforming the experts.
MIT researchers pitted geopolitical experts against everyday people.
"Guess which ones did better at predicting? The random dudes."
The elites "don't do a better job than the wisdom of the crowds."
A FanDuel customer lost $1.5 million betting on their platform.
Then, according to members of Congress, he got a personalized video from a star athlete.
The sportsbook says it’s sent about 30 of these. 🧵
Sportsbooks make money when you lose, so the biggest losers get the VIP treatment.
On a federally regulated exchange, you trade with other people, not the house. Nobody’s paid to keep you playing.
AmericansForFairMarkets.com
🚨 CFTC @ChairmanSelig: "Derivatives can be based on sports. They can be based on politics… you can have a derivative on virtually anything and everything except for motion picture box office receipts and onions."
⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
A prediction contract and a sportsbook wager can ride on the same final score. Who sets the price, who carries the risk, and who gets paid can still differ. @davidclement in @MansfieldNJ mansfieldnewsjournal.com/sto…
Should a trader in Newark and a trader in Columbus face different rules on the same exchange?
Leading free-internet advocate @NetChoice says no and makes the case for one federal rulebook for prediction markets.