the Chinese are so good at psyops lmao
Vish retweeted
Joe Rogan repeats one of the dumbest talking points beloved by antisemites, that Israel bans DNA tests so no one will discover that Ashkenazi Jews aren't "Semites".
This is ridiculous on many levels but let's go without the most obvious: most Ashkenazi Jews live in the USA, not Israel, where DNA tests are easily available, so it would be entirely pointless for Israel to try to cover up the origins of Ashkenazim (which, are, of course, mostly Levantine/Middle Eastern in any event).
he's trying to gut marco on israel
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Vish retweeted
The radicalization of primary voters has made American politics follow a very predictable pattern
*Republicans win*
"WHOO HOOO. EVERYONE LIKES OUR POLICIES! MAGA OR GTFO!"
*Normal people hate their policies. They get their ass kicked.*
Democrats: "Whooo hooo! Everyone likes our policies! Time to cause a bunch of inflation with poorly thought out stimulus policies and restrictions on mining and oil production!"
*Normal people hate their policies. They get their ass kicked.*
Republicans: "Whooo hoo! Everyone likes our policies! Time to cause a bunch of inflation with unpopular wars in the Middle East!"
qanon brained maga pushed the "epstein ran the world" narrative because they're conspiracy-addled idiots, dems legitmised it to go after trump, and now the average american (and the rest of the world) thinks the whole thing is true
Vish retweeted
Whatever drove Americans at the ballot box yesterday, I can practically guarantee how Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and his fanatical IRGC generals are reading the midterms: as yet another sign that the Hidden Imam, the Mahdi, is personally shielding the Islamic Republic.
To the men ruling Tehran, this war with America and Israel isn’t just geopolitics, it’s a sacred, apocalyptic struggle. In their minds, the Mahdi has been sending one saviour after another. Pakistan’s field marshal, Qatari mediators, Turkish and Egyptian intermediaries, every regional player who stepped in to restrain Trump was seen by hardliners as an unwitting instrument of divine intervention.
And now, the American voter has joined that list.
The bitter irony is that Iran didn’t beat Trump; Trump beat himself through sheer, chaotic incompetence.
Back in January, while the regime was slaughtering thousands of protesters, Trump didn't need to promise those protesters help he had no plan to deliver. He could have hit Tehran with crippling sanctions and waited. He could have spent months preparing the military, building a real coalition, and actually explaining to the American public why stopping a nuclear Iran matters.
Instead, we got a war run like a Truth Social posting spree: erratic, impulsive, delusional and completely detached from reality.
With an attention span that could comfortably fit inside a teaspoon, Trump torpedoed his own leverage. Every time he screamed in all-caps that "Iran is begging for a deal!" or entertainingly paused for another mediator, Tehran realized a fundamental truth: the guy constantly insisting Iran was desperate for a deal was actually the one who desperately needed it.
So they played him like a fiddle. They stalled, watched his war turn politically toxic, and refused to hand him a win in the form of a deal before the midterms. Now, with his domestic agenda crippled for the next two years, the fanatics in Tehran feel completely vindicated. And when religious zealots believe God is actively engineering their enemy’s downfall, they don’t get pragmatic, they get even more vindictive.
That makes the next two months before the new Congress is sworn in truly terrifying.
Trump doesn’t do humiliation well. He’s vindictive, and he’s going to want someone to blame for yesterday's loss. Don't be surprised if he lashes out militarily at Tehran, not for any coherent strategic goal, but purely to avenge his bruised ego and prove he’s still the toughest guy in the room. Factor in Netanyahu, who is fighting for his own political survival and desperate to project strength, and you have the ultimate nightmare scenario.
One leader driven by wounded pride and vengeance. Another by political survival. And a regime drunk on the fanatical belief that it has supernatural immunity! What could possibly go wrong?🤦🏻♂️
🤖 Made with AI
It was more than virality, it was strategic. They wanted it to look brutal so it deters incoming immigrants.
The GOP lost because they were incompetent nincompoops. Everything else is a byproduct.
Vish retweeted
Hearings, subpoenas for Musk, Witkoff, Kushner, Don Jr., Eric, Beach. It should be a C-Span limited series.
Vish retweeted
Starting your most incoherent sentence with "put simply" to deflect blame onto the reader
incredible questions from dwarkesh, should've had more time with him
The master biographer reflects at 91. The Robert Caro interview.
0:00:00 – How Caro gets people to talk
0:05:03 – Does America need a little more Moses today?
0:12:42 – Moses the young idealist
0:17:57 – Watching Moses lose power
0:24:01 – Did Moses realize he was changing?
0:27:53 – Building during the Great Depression
0:32:51 – The threats and promises of Lyndon Johnson
0:36:08 – Could Kennedy have passed Johnson’s laws?
0:41:00 – Getting a book down to one sentence
0:46:21 – All the material that never made it into the books
0:52:59 – Loneliness































