Husband to Beverly, Father of MaKenna, Mason and Karlie! Feed Commodity Trader helping to feed the world! **Opinions are my own.
Elkhorn, NE
Joined March 2011
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Elkhorn, NE. This ear was still upright. Not an issue for the ears that were hanging down. With a few days of dry weather I feel that these sprouts will die.
This is not good!
For months, the #soybeans story has been about China.
Meanwhile, a very different problem was building at home.
Western crushers entered harvest with bean stocks drawn down, more capacity to feed and a record amount of meal already committed.
Then harvest stalled.
Now crushers are scrambling for beans and meal is driving the soybean market.
And this isn’t just a few day problem. The rain will eventually stop. The problem doesn’t necessarily stop with it.
When you’ve already sold the meal, you still have to produce it — whether new crop bushels are being delivered or not.
The irony? After months of asking whether China would deliver, delivery is suddenly the problem here at home.
Nobody Delivers.
Read today’s HOT TAKE ⤵️
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Chad Villwok retweeted
Activist: "Farmers pump their cows full of antibiotics. It's in every glass of milk."
Dairy farmer: "Do you know what happens if it is?"
Activist: "People drink it."
Dairy farmer: "The tanker gets tested at the gate. One cow's worth of antibiotic in 20,000 litres and the whole load goes down the drain. Every farm on the run that morning gets their milk tipped, and the farm that did it pays for all of it."
Activist: "So you're saying it never happens."
Dairy farmer: "I'm saying a treated cow on this farm gets red tape round her leg, goes to the back of the parlour, and her milk goes in a bucket for 6 days. I treat her like she's radioactive, because financially she is."
Activist: "You still use them."
Dairy farmer: "On a cow that's ill. Same as you. The vet writes it up, the date goes on the wall, and the wall's checked. Use on this farm is about half what it was 10 years ago, and that's every dairy I know."
Activist: "Routine use in feed, then."
Dairy farmer: "Illegal for years. Growth promoters went 20 years ago. You're describing a chicken shed in a country I don't farm in."
Activist: "You can't prove it's not in the milk."
Dairy farmer: "I can prove it 3 times a week, because they test it 3 times a week and send me the sheet. When did you last get a sheet on your oat drink?"
Activist: "That's different."
Dairy farmer: "It is. Nobody tests it. Mine's the most inspected liquid in your kitchen and it's the one you're scared of."
😳
I left Anthropic's safety team two weeks ago. Now feels like a good moment to explain why.
AI companies are racing to build machines that are much smarter than any human, and we may not survive this. I want to work from the outside to ensure the public is informed about these risks, and help the world navigate this transition responsibly.
Right now, AI companies are underinvesting in safety. A company could undergo an intelligence explosion, or lose control of its systems, without the public ever knowing. We only found out about the HuggingFace incident because the agents broke out onto the public internet.
I don’t think that’s acceptable for a technology that might cause extinction-level risks. The public should demand far more transparency. We can’t steer this technology safely without more people being able to see where it’s going.
Some of this is basic: companies should disclose their progress towards recursive self-improvement, report safety incidents and near-misses, meet minimum safety standards, and get independent guarantees that they are meeting those standards.
I’ll be joining @METR_Evals to do independent evaluations of these risks. I want to show the world that these guardrails are possible, and that by doing them we can move these companies’ incentives away from racing and towards responsible development.
I wrote up more thoughts here on my decision and what I hope changes: substack.com/@jbenton1/p-215…
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Chad Villwok retweeted
The economics of #ethanol blending are hard to ignore.
RBOB gasoline is currently trading at a $1+/gallon premium to ethanol futures — one of the widest spreads in the past two decades.
Put another way, ethanol is $1+/gal cheaper than gas while also providing valuable octane to the blend.
That makes the argument that ethanol is what’s making gasoline more expensive a pretty tough one to defend.
#cmdtyView
@BarchartAg
@Barchart
I love this!!! Go get it buddy!
Four years ago, Danny Ellerd was down to 92 pounds, living under a bridge, consumed by a 15-year addiction.
Cops showed up to lock him up and realized he was literally on the verge of death.
He survived the hospital, checked into rehab, and put his head down.
Today? He graduated from OSU with straight A’s and a degree in tech.
The system can't save anyone who doesn't want it. The door to change is always there, but you have to walk through it yourself.
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Chad Villwok retweeted
🇺🇸 Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade estimates, and the volume was the largest for any August week on record. Spain was the top destination last week, accounting for 21% of total corn inspections.
This corn found some water…..
Weekend developments: large attack on Rostov port. Ukraine's first-ever strike on a vessel in the Caspian Sea. And the Golden Leo — a 7 mmt DWT bulker — sank near Odesa.
Market reaction? CBOT #wheat down 0.4%, Euronext up 0.7%.
That's a lot of escalation for barely any price move.
GM.
#Russia #Ukraine #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
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👀
U.S. corn has received less rainfall since 25% silking than in all but three years since 1981.
From July 10 through July 26, US corn production-weighted precipitation totaled 1.39 inches, or 64% of normal. That is a 0.79-inch deficit over the first 16 days following 25% silking.
At the same point in the crop cycle, only three years were drier:
• 2012: 0.82 inches
• 1983: 1.07 inches
• 1984: 1.35 inches
That places 2026 as the 4th driest of 46 years, near the lower edge of the historical 90% range during pollination and early grain fill.
This is observed weather through July 26, not a forecast. The market-relevant question is whether upcoming rainfall reduces the deficit or allows it to widen.
Get a risk-free trial of CropProphet using the link in the comments below. 👇
#OOTT #AgWx #Corn #CornBelt #GrainMarkets
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