Fergus Jimenez-England

Can economic policy be effective if the underlying data is flawed?📊 The latest CfM-NIESR survey has just been published, gathering expert views from leading economists on the usefulness and reliability of ONS statistics. Read here what the panel had to say on data accuracy, timeliness, and economic forecasting ⤵️ hubs.la/Q04yrW3C0

5⃣ Lessons for the #Chancellor ahead of the forthcoming #Budget Latest #blog sets out areas of broad agreement among the experts surveyed by CfM-NIESR over the last 12 months. The findings point towards a clear policy agenda Read it here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04y1wRZ0

⚡️Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests GDP will grow by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of the year. This upgrade reflects the positive surprise in the July data, although more subdued growth is expected in the August and September data ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04xdtJf0

⚡️UK Economy Beats Expectations, But Borrowing Costs Limit Budget Options⚡️ Our reaction to the latest #GDP numbers is out now

*NEW PUBLICATION* The latest policy brief by Director David Aikman argues that the new UK Govt needs to do what no UK Govt has done in 25 years: run a primary surplus to bring #debt down and put the #publicfinances on a sustainable path – and the longer the adjustment is deferred, the greater the economic cost. Read the full analysis here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04wH7B60

Our analysis of today's #GDP release suggests that, whilst the UK has weathered the energy shock better than some feared, the recent pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained. We are forecasting growth of 0.2 per cent for Q3, with inflation and unemployment set to rise in the coming months and business sentiment remaining fragile. Read more here ⤵️ hubs.la/Q04sR04c0

Our reaction to this morning's #GDP figures.

⚡️ OUT NOW ⚡️ The latest #GDP Tracker suggests that good news for the UK economy are ending in the second quarter as early estimates point to much slower Growth in the third quarter of the year 📉 Continued energy price volatility will likely dampen economic activity in the near future, and consumers and businesses will be looking to the new Prime Minister to provide much-needed stability to the economy Read more here ⤵️ hubs.la/Q04pLBVQ0

Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now⚡️📊 #GDPgrowth #UKeconomy #UKGovernment @FergusJimenezE

The latest @CFMUK-NIESR survey has just been published and assessed the effects of #Brexit A majority of panellists thought that restrictions on UK-EU labour mobility since Brexit have materially worsened the UK’s economic outlook; And two thirds of the panel thought closer UK-EU economic integration should be a central priority of the UK government’s growth strategy. Read more here⤵️ hubs.la/Q04lSpJ70

The latest @CFMUK-NIESR survey has just been published The panel agrees that rising gilt yields in April and May reflected a risk premium associated with political and fiscal policy uncertainty. There is also agreement that a more credible fiscal consolidation plan would help to bring long-term borrowing costs down, and that measures to shield households from higher inflation would be counterproductive to this endeavour. Read more here⬇️ hubs.ly/Q04j8ygd0

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now ⚡️ @FergusJimenezE @RoyalEconSoc

Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests the UK economy will grow by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year, though we expect shallow monthly growth outturns as disruption from the #energyprice shock ripples through the economy. Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04gySH40

You can read all of our analyses on GDP here 👉 niesr.ac.uk/publication-type… 2/2

⚡️Whatever tomorrow’s #GDP outturn, the trend is clear: the UK economy faces a year of weak growth and high inflation⚡️ Economist's @FergusJimenezE comment ahead of tomorrow's GDP numbers ⬇️ 1/2

The latest @CFMUK-NIESR survey has just been published. The panel members largely agree that war bonds are not the solution to financing increased defence spending Read more here⬇️ hubs.la/Q04d-XGG0

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests GDP will grow by 0.4% in the second quarter 📈 But the outlook remains uncertain with the prospect of #stagflation affecting the UK economy in 2026 Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04ck7rm0

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now⚡️ #UKeconomy #EnergyPrice #IranWar‌

The panel members on the @CFMUK-NIESR survey favour a tighter interest rate path in the UK as a response to higher energy prices. They also believe that that the UK will experience greater negative effects than the Euro Area hubs.la/Q048zFc00