Rome Duta

Massive weather model battle for mid-November! The GEFS builds an Alaska ridge by Nov 9 to unleash artic air into the US. But the EPS isn't buying it. It keeps the cold trapped up north and extends our warmth. Until the Euro blinks, the warmth wins. #natgas

EPS and GEFS lost 15 HDDs compared to Friday SO I EXPECT A GAP DOWN but this looks promising starting November 7: -AO with +PNA. A massive heat wave high up in space is stretching and weakening the polar vortex. Cold winter weather could be headed our way for Nov 12–22 #natgas

Gap down unconfirmed yet, but European ensemble lost 15 HDDs on the latest run. If it stands, we gap down at Sunday's open. 3 more runs to watch: 12z, 00z, and 12z again. Can you imagine there are 4 more months of doing this every weekend? #natgas

Bearish multi-week outlook as the 45-day Euro EPS shows widespread below-normal HDDs across the highest heating-demand states (Midwest/Northeast) through November. Mountain region cold not enough to offset. Im waitin for 00z data to se if any changes #natgas

Take another look at what happened last November (the red line). We aren't quite there yet with this year's trend (the blue line), but what happens if the weather suddenly turns? Keep in mind that we rallied $2.00 last November. #natgas

November isn't looking too bad—if we gain 20 more HDDs, we will be right on par with last year. #natgas

I remember that year also... there was no winter. We actually traded $1.50 gas low because that crazy 23-24 warmth left inventories 39% above the 5-yr avg #natgas

Gap Down Today It's only October, but remember last year: we had a steady climb until December, a big sell-off into January, and then that crazy explosion to 7.50 with two devastating gaps up (one was 0.90) from a weekend 50 HDD revision. #natgas

Some small potato firm thinks they’re market gods because they swung nat gas $0.15 on the TCO news. Calm down, it’s just a $0.15 GLITCH on 2 Bcf. You don't control the direction. The second the forecast changes while you're locked in, you're getting absolutely crushed. #natgas

This is exactly what I need on Sunday (NOT TODAY) for a gap up: today's model run gained +26.5 HDDs for the October 16–29 period compared to yesterday, jumping from 160.0 to 186.5 HDDs #natgas

So according to this guy , Halloween is cancelled and you're freezing on November 1st. #natgas

it's a total game of chicken right now. We are going to need a ton of HDDs to kickstart a real rally. #natgas

Back in my day, we needed a polar vortex or an LNG terminal explosion to move the needle 20 cents. Now? Someone forgets to grease a valve on Line-100 and the whole board goes parabolic. #natgas

Running 23 HDDs below last year's forecast for the next 14 days. We definitely need some real cold—above last year AND above normal—to get this thing rallying #natgas

Still bullish. That triple bottom bounce was beautiful. #natgas

This is the final sequence looking ahead to Sunday. If we get bullish news, 328 is the key level for trend continuation. #natgas

The bullish trend is still intact. That recent drop was just people taking profits off the channels. We hit a 50% pullback on the last move up, so everything is still looking good. If we can get back above the 50 EMA, it will confirm exactly what I said. #natgas

Is this true? The initial impact reports released by the (MMA) confirm that energy companies have proactively halted 3.36% of natural gas production and 9.24% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico as of late yesterday and early today. #natgas

Zoom out. 3.31 is not the double top—the true double top sits at 3.396. If we break through, the continuation sequence targets 3.60 and 3.81. Major 1st resistance after that locks in at 4.384. #natgas

We have 2-3 weeks before seasonality fully kicks in—if it hasn't already. The 5-yr avg peak is $4.75, but NGF27 is only $3.71 today. If an early winter hits and it starts getting bid, this contract looks cheap fast. Specs are heavily short—the squeeze will be violent. #natgas