FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings

* Dosage Updates * This week Steve Roman and Ken Kush updated the Chefs-de-Race list with the following sires: Dark Angel(IRE) Exceed And Excel(AUS) Frankel Night of Thunder(IRE) No Nay Never(USA) Sea The Stars(IRE) Too Darn Hot Wootton Bassett FlatStats is using the updated list. All our horse profiles have been updated.

Have you heard of the Pareto Principle aka the 80/20 rule? It's a cool phenomenon that states 80% of consequences come from 20% of the causes. This works in horseracing! If you check results for a particular timeframe (such as one full year) you will see that 80% of the races were won by the same 20% of jockeys. We have a special free to view Pareto List page that is updated daily. You can instantly see the jockeys, trainers, sires, dam sires that have Pareto Status, and are thus part of the elite that win the majority of races. So if you are stuck choosing between two horses in a race then just ensure the jockey, trainer, sire has Pareto Status and back the one that has. The image shows the Pareto List for today, filtered for today's runners and riders. You can instantly see that Jason Hart, Hector Crouch ... Kaiya Fraser have Pareto status whilst jockeys not listed do not.

Trainer Form is one of the hardest things to master. It is like trying to nail jelly to a wall using a chocolate hammer and a nail made out of cooked spaghetti. All joking aside, only the trainer knows which of their runners is likely to run well today or tomorrow. All punters know is how well a trainer has done previously. In order to guess if a trainer is likely to do well punters can look at some stats. There are various stats to look at such as the 28 day stats, or the last 50 runs stats. You can find these figures everywhere. On the FlatStats site we have a special page that shows these stats and few stats more. Here's an explanation of each one: Rtg - The FlatStats rating TFI - The Trainer Form Index. It's our own calculation of trainer form where blue is good, red is bad A/E A - This is the All Time A/E; the A/E figure the trainer has produced from all runs for the past 10 years A/E 50 - This is the A/E figure for the past 50 runs A/E 28 - This is the A/E for the past 28 days ROI A - The Return on Investment % for all time ROI 50 - The ROI% for the past 50 runs ROI 28 - The ROI% for the past 28 days R A - The total all time runs; the number of runners the trainer has had in the past 10 years R 28 - The number of runners in the past 28 days P A - The number of all time places P 50 - The number of places from the past 50 runners P 28 - The number of places in the past 28 days RSW - The number of runners since the trainer last had a winner DSW - The number of days since the trainer last had a winner 365 D - This is the TF2 figure for the past one year. TF2 was our older metric for calculating trainer form 84 D - The TF2 figure for the past 84 days 28 D - The TF2 figure for the past 28 days 14 D - The TF2 figure for the past 14 days 7 D - The TF2 figure for the past 7 days So what can you make from all that? I would suggest looking at the TFI first as this is fair (but far from perfect) indicator of which trainer is currently in or out of form. Basically this figure is calculated from looking at the all time A/E figure and a more recent A/E figure. There is also an element of runs since win added to the mix. Any figure that is high and blue indicates a trainer is currently doing much better than they usually do, and any low figure that is red indicates they are out of form. As for the other figures I think these are great for those of you who want a source of figures to feed into AI and see what it comes up with. All our figures are available in table or CSV form so if you want to look at the figures and make your own assessment, or if you want to feed your AI bot then try our Daily Trainer Form page.

Both flat turf meetings are soft / heavy today so here's the FlatStats Sire Stats Table for such ground. Note the standout sire Teofilo. The stats are blue (good value), the sample size is very sufficient and it passes the Archie test at the medium threshold. Teofilo has one runner today with Luminous Approach in the 2:39 at Leicester. The horse is lightly raced on the turf with just one run - a 4.4L 5th of 11 over course and distance. That run was on Good to Firm, so form-meisters may overlook this horse. But statters will see the sire's record on this ground and would expect this horse to improve on it. 2:39L Luminous Approach

Clearing out some of my mother's stuff I found these photos of myself at my first ever protest event. It's 1971 and I am aged five. I am the shortest kid in the middle of the first picture; looking smart with a tie on. The event was to protest the Carbon Black factory, which blighted Port Tennant on the east side of Swansea. My nan and uncle lived there and when I went to visit them as a child I remember the awful soot pollution in the air that permeated into the houses. It was really nasty stuff. The London protests (as well as early one's at Swansea) were unsuccessful which then led to the complete blockade of the factory. 50 "housewives" blockaded the site round the clock. Eventually Port Tennant residents won but it was a long battle that shook Swansea council, and parliament. I may have been only five at the time but I think it instilled in me the passion to try and put things right what I believe are totally wrong. It's why I took on BT over the Phorm snooping scandal, and it's why I feel so strongly about 48 hour declarations, the going and watering fiasco, that are detrimental to racing.

Here's some FlatStats resources that could help you find winners at Doncaster. Jockeys on Soft / Heavy Ground Tables This ranks jockeys by the A/E value stat with the best value jockeys listed at the top. Today the best jockeys for this ground are: Rhys Clutterbuck (Egoli, Seagoing) George Wood (Goldmoyne, Harlequin Dream) Clutterbuck passes the Archie test, Wood, is just slightly under the threshold. Look at the bottom of the table and you will see jockeys who do not perform so well on soft ground. Colin Keane is near the bottom. Sires on Soft / Heavy Ground Tables If a horse has had no or only a few runs on soft ground then you need to check their sire stats. At the top end of the table (thus good value) are: Galileo Gold, Fast Company They don't quite pass the Archie test and there are others with higher A/Es but have lower (unreliable samples). At the other end of the table there are negatives for: Starspangledbanner, Dutch Art, Dark Angel, Sea The Stars, Havana Grey They do pass the Archie test so the stats should be reliable. But remember! If a horse has shown it can handle the mud that fact should over ride the sire stats. Horse / Going Combo Stats This is a resource that shows horses' records on the going, at the course, over the distance. So if you want to find out how many times Under The Sun has run on soft ground this table will show you "8 times and 1 win". Of course this is going to be low sample, but if you want to quickly see which horses have run many times (and won or not) on soft ground then this resource is for you. All pages have free samples so you can try them out. If you like the pages then join today and have full access for the rest of the flat turf season and into the new AW season. 1/2

Dosage Selections for Thursday 1:45N Happy Love 7:00S Diamond Blue Point 7:30S Beatrice Brianne Selections made from using the FlatStats Dosage / Pedigree resources.