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26 October 2026, Volume 3, Issue 207 (Euro)
Almost all quiet on the North Sea front... The prompt spread balloons leading up to expiry while the jet market gets stressed again!
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C3 FEI: PDH demand returns
🧪 PDH operating rates in China have rebounded over the past couple of weeks, suggesting these plants are returning from scheduled maintenance. This could support FEI prices.
🧪 PDH margins were positive last week, although propane continues to get more expensive as a feedstock, with M1 FEI/MOPJ briefly positive today. This may eat into PDH margins as well going forward (making it important to monitor resistance in FEI) ⚠️
💡 Still, flow-wise, FEI spreads remain net long, despite some liquidation w/w. Momentum is positive in the front spread, although we now inch closer to key resistance at around $58/mt with $60/mt above it.
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The Officials MOC: Date 26/10/2026
Dated Brent Assessment: $129.835/bbl
Physical differential: $8.01/bbl
Key events: BP offers JS
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26 October 2026, Volume 3, Issue 205 (Asia)
Election madness begins in Brazil, while Middle Eastern prices soften and there are no major weekend bombings. Freight is still causing friction, spreading into the clean market...
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A morning round-up from the intelligence feed... A source told The Officials their vessel is loading at Yanbu today despite the Houthis’ claimed attacks on Yanbu infrastructure. Basrah is the flavour of the day! IOC took 3 mil bbl from Totsa and Trafigura for mid-Dec delivery and Asian bunkers are still extremely tight.
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1. Vessel loading at Yanbu now, despite Houthi claimed attacks, indicating no operational damage to facilities. Satellite imagery from 25 Oct corroborates this.
2. IOC takes 3 mil bbl of Basrah, priced against Nov Dubai for Mid-Dec delivery:
Basrah Medium 2 mil bbl from Totsa at Nov Dubai -$2.25/bbl, DAP Paradip
Basrah Heavy 1 mil bbl from Trafigura at Nov Dubai -$7.20/bbl, DAP Mundra
3. Daily Bunkers:
Singapore: HSFO $880-890/mt (edd 6 Nov), VLSFO $960-975/mt (edd 8 Nov), LSMGO $1,335-1,338/mt (edd 6 Nov)
Port Klang: VLSFO $920-955/mt (edd 4 Nov); HSFO and LSMGO on firm enquiry only
Pasir Gudang: no HSFO availability; VLSFO $940-965/mt (edd 2 Nov); LSMGO on firm enquiry only
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The Officials MOC: Date 26/10/2026
Dubai Assessment: $115.74/bbl
Physical premium: $6.87/bbl
Key events: Mitsui, Vitol and Unipec declare Oman, BP declares Murban - all 4 to Trafi
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📈📉 M1 Brent is correcting in overbought stochastics today, finding resistance at the upper boundary of the channel
🐄 The wider bullish trend is strong; ADX> 37
👀 Watch Q2'22 resistance at $113.75/bbl for possible support
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23 October 2026, Volume 3, Issue 206 (Euro)
A nervous market rallies ahead of the weekend with elections looming... Brent breaks towards $120 but the North Sea goes quiet.
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The Officials MOC: Date 23/10/2026
Dated Brent Assessment: $128.67/bbl
Physical differential: $7.885/bbl
Key events: BP offers JS
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M1 NWE Naphtha Crk: support expected @ -$6.00/bbl
Price declines have been floored by the -$6.00/bbl level, which was last a support level in early Oct'26.
The past 2 sessions' daily candles have printed longer lower shadows below this level, reinforcing support here.
Despite growing negative momentum, we are in a trendless market (see weak ADX).
🚨 While support is expected today @ -$6/bbl, a daily close below will open room to -$7/bbl.
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📉 Sing regrade (kero-Sing gasoil) prices slumping with buying likely profit-taking, and the market remaining short, overall...
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🧸 Shorts are taking profit, but prices are still falling , with bearish momentum increasing.
🧸 No fresh length added leaves regrade with little support, with prices softening and no reversal signals
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The Peering Eye, The Shipping Publication: 23 October 2026
Lots of turnover at Fujairah, while Yanbu gets busier! But the Strait of Hormuz is still rather quiet...
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23 October 2026, Volume 3, Issue 204 (Asia)
The Saudis keep selling through tenders - some interesting prices... The US pulling out all the stops to get prices down but it's too late. Russian cargoes en route!
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📉Buying the drop-J
🐮 Strong buying in the ‘27 Asian naphtha spreads this week with the front spreads pretty rangebound
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🐮 There was also strong buying in the Dec and Jan’27 E/W
The E/W forward curve shifted down this week as weaker freight pushed weak length out of the front and MOPJ was sold outright
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The Officials MOC: Date 23/10/2026
Dubai Assessment: $116.90/bbl
Physical premium: $8.12/bbl - unchanged
Key events: Unipec declares Oman to Trafi, Glencore declares Murban to Trafi
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