Merchandise trade deficit widens in August Spain: In August, the trade balance was EUR -7.8 billion, following a EUR -5.2 billion figure in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to EUR -67.8 billion. Merchandise exports were down 1.2% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in August, following 2.0% growth in the previous month. Merchandise imports were up 3.1% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in August, following a 4.0% drop in the prior month.

Student List scores decisive victory, likely spelling an end to 14 years of SNS rule Serbia: On 25 October, Serbia’s anti-corruption Student List (SL) secured a pivotal landslide victory in the snap parliamentary elections, effectively ending 14 years of rule by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The result came amid the highest voter turnout since 1992, reflecting widespread demand for political change following nearly two years of student-led protests. Preliminary results gave the student movement over 50% of the votes, securing an outright parliamentary majority. Aleksandar Vucic, the SNS’s leading figure, conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, easing concerns over a contested outcome.

Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in October Israel: At its meeting on 21 October, the Central Bank decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.25%, following the 25-basis-point cut in September.

Industrial production shrinks in August Slovakia: Industrial production fell 0.1% on a year-on-year basis in August, following a 2.5% increase in the previous month. Relative to the prior month's data, readings in August worsened for manufacturing (-0.8% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.1% in July) and mining and quarrying (-17.7% vs +1.6% in July). In contrast, the reading for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply improved in August (+7.2% vs +5.3% in July). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production declined by 0.8% in August, following a 2.1% increase in July.

Inflation picks up in September from the prior month Poland: Consumer prices rose 4.1% in annual terms in September, following a 3.4% rise in the prior month. September's reading was the strongest since June 2025 and exceeded the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target range. Relative to the previous month's data, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.4% on a year-on-year basis vs -0.9% in August), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+5.0% vs +4.1% in August) and transportation (+36.1% vs +24.2% in August). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 3.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 3.3% rise in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices were up 0.70% in September in month-on-month terms, following a 0.30% rise in the previous month.

Inflation decelerates in September from the prior month Egypt: Consumer prices were up 14.0% in annual terms in September, following a 14.5% increase in the previous month. September's reading was the weakest since February 2026. Relative to the previous month's data, there were reduced price pressures for transportation (+24.2% on a year-on-year basis vs +24.4% in August) and housing and utilities (+35.3% vs +42.8% in August). In contrast, price pressures were higher for food and non-alcoholic beverages—the largest component in the consumer price index basket—in September (+7.2% vs +6.3% in August). Meanwhile, core consumer prices increased 14.1% in annual terms in September, following a 14.9% rise in the previous month. Finally, consumer prices increased 1.31% in September in month-on-month terms, following a 0.07% increase in the previous month.

Inflation eases in September from August Slovakia: Harmonized consumer prices were up 3.0% in annual terms in September, following a 3.1% increase in the previous month. September's reading was the weakest since September 2024. Relative to the previous month's data, there were reduced price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (-3.2% on a year-on-year basis vs -2.5% in August), recreation (+4.2% vs +4.7% in August) and restaurants and hotels (+4.4% vs +4.7% in August). In contrast, there were higher price pressures for transportation (+9.1% vs +6.5% in August) and housing and utilities (+9.6% vs +9.5% in August). Meanwhile, consumer prices increased 3.1% in September, stable from the previous month's reading. Lastly, harmonized consumer prices were up 0.11% in September on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.04% decline in the previous month.

Oil output falls at a softer year-on-year rate in September Saudi Arabia: Saudi oil output was 8.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September, decreasing 19.7% year on year (August: 7.26 mbpd; down 25.3% yoy). Output remains roughly 20% below pre-Middle East conflict levels. Double-digit year-on-year contractions have persisted since March, with April seeing the lowest production level since the 1991 Gulf War.

Economic contraction deepens in the second quarter of 2026 Qatar: Qatar's GDP was down 15.7% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following a 7.0% contraction in the prior quarter. Q2's reading was the weakest since the National Planning Council started releasing the current series in 2012.

Economic sentiment rises in September Turkey: Economic sentiment rose to 101.5 in September, following August's 100.3. The latest reading was above the long-term average of 100 and the highest since May 2023, pointing to a positive near-term outlook for the economy. In September, sentiment improved in the industrial sector (+1.1 vs +0.3 in August), the construction sector (-16.8 vs -17.7 in August), the services sector (+20.8 vs +20.7 in August), the retail sector (+13.9 vs +12.8 in August) and among consumers (-8.5 vs -9.3 in August).