A dummy that's learning
Joined July 2023
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Vix visited high 20s again today.
I called out AI trade getting rekt short term from dems winning beforehand youtube.com/watch?v=x8uZQTT8…
You already know what I did today 🫡
Times like these, margin is OP
(I don't expect to time the bottom)
So much noise around the Iran conflict. Debate on bull vs bear outlook. Here's the kicker, both sides have merit. Just like the Covid crash, just like the Tariff dump.
Everyone's suddenly an oil and middle east geopolitical expert, just like how they were tariff experts in 2025 🤔
Remember the price we pay for outperformance in equities vs fixed income is handling and stomaching volatility.
Sometimes it's easy to get lost in the noise. Whether it's the hype (when things are going up), or the FUD (when things are going down).
A big portion of the game is not fomoing on the way up and paper handing on the way down. It sounds so stupid and simple, but I think it's easier said than done given the emotions due to capital at stake.
One of my fav quotes all time is "chaos is a ladder".
If you're young, you should be praying for the dump. Getting discounts early on in life and letting it compound is str8 up hax. NO CAP!
It may not feel great going through it, but that's literally the alpha. When I personally feel the pain, I know others are feeling it as well, and you can bet a decent amount of them are puking out of their positions. Whether to margin call, delever, or stop the bleeding.
It's not a coincidence that every time I feel this, it's when the vix is elevated.
In times of uncertainty and fear like currently, I find for me it's helpful to zoom out and focus on the core fundamentals. It may be different from person to person. For me it's the following:
1. Vix elevated -> Buy the dip. Don't overthink it. Don't over-analyze it. Don't over-complicate it. I won't time the bottom and that's okay!
2. It always feels like the end of the world going through it in real time. The kicker is that it's always been like this throughout history. The world has always experienced these uncertain unfortunate events. It's a feature of the game, not a bug.
What's indisputable is that if you got scared and sold in the past "scares", you missed out on huge gains.
3. Eventually the market will bounce back. Especially because...
4. AI is a game changer. I don't believe it's "hype". The applications and efficiency improvements (agentic, humanoid, video generation are just a few examples) will be such a step function leap we cannot wrap our primitive minds around it. It will not allow us to accept or believe these sorts of super anomalies.
I missed out on real estate, tech stock, and crypto boom in the 2010s because I was still a student.
I am NOT going to miss out on AI.
Avoid this in real time.
Sold my data center names exposed to Texas afterhours yesterday like $HUT / $CIFR
Did a total reversal from bol to ber and went short $CIFR afterhours yesterday. Covered today for over 10% gain.
I think the dump is reasonable.
Market was pricing in about 1/3 to 1/4 chance of red senate. Texas outcome definitely wasn't priced in.
I've lightened my AI exposure afterhours. If I sold the bottom it is what it is. I think there's going to be more volatility ahead short term for AI given the widespread opposition to data centers. We are in our own bubble sometimes on X, normal everyday folks hate it.
1 side is obviously very pro AI and they just suffered a huge defeat.
Midterm Elections Trade - Final Update & Thoughts:
-Exited my final calls today. Multi Bagger called in real time $FSLR $ENPH $MSOS $CSIQ 🥳
-The preceding GIGA dump on $RDDT and AI names really f**ked with my confidence. I'd be lying if I said it didn't impact me going into this trade. So sizing wasn't as big as I would have liked given the opportunity. I kept thinking in the back of my mind, surely it can't be this easy? surely a lot of it is priced in? That said, it wasn't small sizing either, considering they were weeklies and I was risking like a good handful % points of my total port.
-I messed up thinking crypto would dump on a Trump L. I think because it's been in a bear already. So shorting it r/r wasn't great. Took 60% L on $MSTR weeklies.
-I eeked out a small profit on $PLTR short
-Thinking & reflecting back, $PLTR and $MSTR shorts were too complicated and too many connections. Subpar.
-In the future I need to dumb it down a lot more. Less complicated the better. Need to adjust to the market. In retrospect, going short $DJT would have been the more optimal short (highest EV in this market), to pair with Solar and Cannabis longs.
All in all, I'm proud of myself in pulling the trigger on this trade. 🥰
I was in a pretty brutal mental place prior to this. Suffered my largest $$$ drawdown by far because I was literally being regarded. I'm proud to have been able to put that baggage aside to focus on research and getting the video out, even though I just kinda wanted to ball up in a corner and be sad.
Step by step, we progressing 🫡
youtube.com/watch?v=x8uZQTT8…
Midterm Elections Trade - Video published yesterday.
Called for long solar/cannabis and short palantir.
1 Day Later:
$TAN up 6% 🔺
$MSOS up 8% 🔺
$PLTR down 6% 🔻
Election Trade Update
Took profits on Solar and Cannabis names.
$ENPH +130%
$MSOS +80%
$FSLR +30%
$CSIQ +35%
Currently still short $PLTR and $MSTR via weekly puts. Feel both of these are sleeper names that's not as talked about as solar/weed. I like the potential r/r here.
Directionally I'm still super long AI, so these shorts will act as a hedge (hopefully) in the most bearish election outcome scenario, and give me dry powder to buy the dip tmrw.
Side Note:
Mainstream like Reuters published news on Monday morning on election trades like Solar and Cannabis. I front ran them and the algos!! 😂
That said, I feel a lot is priced in on weed/solar at this point given the news spreading and algos feeding on it already. Therefore, I don't like r/r holding weeklies overnight on these. Can see a sell the news scenario playing out tmrw.
Example: MSOS up over 15%. ENPH up over 20%. Since yesterday!
youtube.com/watch?v=x8uZQTT8…
Midterm Elections Trade - Video published yesterday.
Called for long solar/cannabis and short palantir.
1 Day Later:
$TAN up 6% 🔺
$MSOS up 8% 🔺
$PLTR down 6% 🔻
youtube.com/watch?v=x8uZQTT8…
Midterm Elections Trade - Video published yesterday.
Called for long solar/cannabis and short palantir.
1 Day Later:
$TAN up 6% 🔺
$MSOS up 8% 🔺
$PLTR down 6% 🔻
98% of posts on r/wallstreetbets are noise.
This =/= noise
Solar is also interesting.
I need to do more DD over the weekend 🤓
Today:
The other side to swinging big with size and concentration.
My worst drawdown in $ terms, feels SOOOO gross 🤮🤮 🤮🤮🤮🤮
Mostly $RDDT but combination of other AI/high beta names that got crushed recently as well.
I deserve it for getting overconfident. Humbled 🫡🫡
I'd be a hypocrite if I only showed off the gains and not losses.
Yeeeeah this is 🤮🤮🤮🤮
Will be even more red tmrw as my calls will be worthless.
Humbled big time.
This shit Fkn hurts.
NO CRYING IN THE CASINO
-cries
😂😭😭
No one to blame but myself. Totally deserved
