Kimi K3.1 Pro 5 weeks behind the frontier. And 5 weeks in late 2026 is not the same as five weeks in 2023.
Combine with this…
apollo.com/wealth/insights-n…
…and you can only applaud @elonmusk for racing to the SpaceX IPO. Anthropic and OpenAI may well have missed their window.
Do328 was a good-looking aircraft. You mileage on the Baade 152 may vary.
My fundamental question: looking at ATR sales numbers, is launching a turboprop regional aircraft, no matter how modern, a sound business decision?
60 years on from the failed Baade 152 airliner - can Deutsche Aircraft return aircraft manufacturing to eastern Germany with the D238eco? aerosociety.com/news/regiona…
Another good read on the status of PATMAR FUTUR. Summary: pay-up, or compromise, i.e., just 10X as basis/Swordfish philosophy. Net net: it will get expensive and take longer than planned.
The 4th P-8 has just been delivered to Marineflieger. Leaving MAWS was the right call.
A321 MPA, vamos a aclarar una cosa:
No, nadie en @MarineNationale 🇫🇷, ni @Armees_Gouv 🇫🇷 ni en @AssembleeNat 🇫🇷 ha pensado ni ha dicho nada sobre comprar P-8A Poseidón 🇺🇸
Quien esté interesado lo puede leer por si mismo. Lo siento, amantes del P-8.
1/8🧵⬇️ va un hilo didáctico
Sollten diejenigen, die glauben, eine „antifaschistische Wirtschaftspolitik“ reduziert den Stimmanteil, vielleicht mal lesen. ⬇️
Spoiler: Klappt vermutlich nicht.
Aber an Empirie scheint man ja weder bei der Urheberin noch den Anhängern besonders interessiert zu sein.
Trappier on ACF: „Although few details of the ACF have so far been disclosed, Trappier says it “will be smaller than we expected with the NGF. […] Power will likely come from a further evolution of the Safran Aircraft Engines M88, beyond the T-Rex variant.”
H/t to @fg_domperry
Service tweet - here is the link:
apollo.com/wealth/insights-n…
Torsten Slok from @apolloglobal shows in his Daily Spark Newsletter that there is no AI payoff, no productivity change outside the tech sector.
Confirmation by Saab CEO today: no 🇸🇪🇩🇪 AF alignment on requirements.
"If the air forces of Sweden and Germany share the same view regarding the capabilities required for the future, there might be a foundation for industrial cooperation. However, we are not quite there yet.”
⬇️
H/t to @GripenNews:
Saab CEO: Open to industrial cooperation if 🇸🇪🇩🇪 Air Forces align requirements.
(Remember "System of Systems" approach. Requirements could align on unmanned systems but still remain too different on manned systems (For ops and exports).)
Pic: G-T via TV4 tv4.se/artikel/4oRTQRv3VZLpK…
Great read. 3 notes:
1) Falcon 10X, the alternative PATMAR FUTUR platform, had a planned service entry of 2025 when launched in 2021. It is now 2029. It is there, but late.
2) P-8 can be maintained by MROs, like AFI KLM E&M.
3) 4th P-8 was delivered to Marineflieger today.
🔴 ON A ÉCARTÉ DASSAULT POUR AIRBUS. LA FACTURE BLOQUE TOUT, ET L'AVION POURRAIT ÊTRE AMÉRICAIN.
Chaque fois qu'un sous-marin nucléaire lanceur d'engins quitte l'Île Longue, un Atlantique 2 de la Marine nationale le précède. Sa mission : s'assurer qu'aucun sous-marin étranger ne le suit. La dissuasion française commence là.
Les 18 Atlantique 2 doivent quitter le service en 2040 au plus tard. Leur successeur était choisi : en 2025, la DGA a retenu l'A321 d'Airbus, transformé en avion de patrouille maritime avec Thales, contre le Falcon 10X de Dassault. Budget prévu : environ 3 milliards d'euros. Premier avion : 2034.
En septembre, le lancement a été repoussé. Les offres dépassaient l'enveloppe.
Le rapporteur de la Marine à l'Assemblée, Yannick Chenevard, va plus loin. Il parle d'un « abandon » du lancement, « malgré le succès de l'étude de levée de risque ». La facture aurait augmenté de 65 %. Et il donne la raison : les négociations auraient « achoppé sur une estimation du coût du risque très élevée de la part d'Airbus, conséquence de ses déboires sur l'A400M ».
Autrement dit, Airbus fait payer à l'État français le prix de ses erreurs passées. Il a remporté le marché contre Dassault, puis présenté une facture alourdie par un programme qu'il a lui-même mal maîtrisé.
Le plan B évoqué dans la presse existe déjà : le P-8A Poseidon de Boeing.
Cet avion a déjà croisé ce dossier. À l'origine, le successeur de l'Atlantique 2 devait être franco-allemand : le programme MAWS. Il s'est arrêté quand Berlin a choisi le P-8 pour remplacer ses avions de patrouille. La France a poursuivi seule.
Si Paris se rabat à son tour sur l'avion américain, la protection de la dissuasion française reposera sur un appareil dont la maintenance, les mises à jour et une partie des systèmes dépendent de Washington.
Le chef d'état-major de la Marine prévenait en mai : « Nous n'avons pas le droit à l'erreur. » Entre 2034 et 2040, la marge est déjà mince. Chaque année de report la réduit.
La préférence européenne se décide aussi sur ce genre de dossier, loin des sommets et des grands discours : un avion de patrouille, un budget, une signature qui tarde.
Et le Falcon 10X écarté en 2025 n'a pas disparu.
In the context of only 604 combat-coded F-35 for USAF by 2035, does this spell the end for plans to upgrade older F-35 to TR3/Block 4?
Where does this leave early buyers, like the UK and Italy?
Background on the 604 F-35/40% of total combat-coded fleet:
xitter.cf/foxtwo2022/status/2112…
FWIW, Sweden has launched a study about how to approach replacing Gripen in June 2026:
regeringen.se/pressmeddeland…
Three options in the table: go alone; go with others; buy a foreign aircraft.
Results due no later than 15 Sep 2027.
BMVg Airbus Defence fraction hard at work?
Worthwhile noting that there is no commitment so far from Sweden nor Spain on working with Germany. And looking at how long aligning military requirements usually takes, maybe one should say that “in German MoD’s estimation”, requirements are strongly aligned between 🇸🇪🇪🇸🇩🇪.
For those with German language skills or trust in machine translation, here is a more extensive piece on this subject by @AlexLuck9 for @hartpunkt:
hartpunkt.de/30mm-geschuetz-…
@Leopard24theWin has previously written about the effort to replace MLG (qNFMLG):
suv.report/neue-marineleicht…
May we have found the new Marineleichtgeschütz (querschnittlich)?
Replacement for 27 mm MLG currently used. Requirement is for a weapon in use with NATO allies. 30 mm ABM required.
MSI is also set for F127, in its Mk38 Mod 4 guise.
Germany is purchasing Seahawk DS 30 mm weapon stations by British manufacturer MSI Defence Systems for installation on future F128 frigates. The move follows a previous order for upgrading F123B frigates. My coverage for @navalnewscom:
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
Great read.
To add one numerical point: difference in (observed) sortie rates between a 40k ton CVN (CdG) and a 100k ton CVN (Nimitz class) is 5 - 6x, vs. the 2.5x difference in tonnage. 20 - 25 sorties on CdG vs. ~120 on Nimitz class. Ford supposedly takes this to 160 sorties.
Just imagine how many lives Churchill could have saved - at the price of just a little fascism in Europe.
German Reich and German-occupied territories, 1942:
1,509 combat-coded aircraft by 2035, of which 40% F-35 - 604 aircraft.
F-35 program-of-record for USAF is 1,763.
One wonders if this is of a similar quality now as the UK commitment of 138 “over the life of the program”.
1/ "About 40 percent of the fleet could be F-35s, [Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs] said. Another 20 percent would be a combination of F-22 Raptors and F-47s as the sixth-generation fighter replaces the Raptor. The Air Force built 186 operational F-22s, and Tabor said the Air Force still plans to replace them with roughly an equivalent number of F-47s. The remaining 40 percent of the fleet would likely be split evenly between F-15 Eagle variants and F-16 Fighting." Falcons."
airandspaceforces.com/air-fo…
