Elections, Policy, Law, and Maps. https://xitter.cf/t.co/jPBRSAICr4
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This one crosstab from one CNN exit poll nearly ten years ago has done immeasurable damage to people’s perception of Texas politics.
In 2018, Ted Cruz lost native Texans, however transplants broke heavily toward him, saving him.
Since then, Texas has gone from 28 million to 31 million people.
With these new transplant continuing to break hard to the right, the generic congressional vote in Texas has gone from:
🔴+3.5 in 2018
To
🔴+9.7 in 2020
To
🔴+20 2022
To
🔴+18.1 in 2024
If Paxton wins, it's safe to say it's due to the insurance of conservatives moving to the state for political reasons.
These numbers appear to be essentially made up. Iowa has 95k in person early votes, and currently sits at D +20 just for those in person votes.
Fully Reporting retweeted
Was able to use the absentee files in NC to compare same day 18-29 turnout by party reg
% of 2022 / % of 2024 by party
D: 197.3% / 55.3%
R: 83.9% / 12.6%
Oth: 205.8% / 43.8%
In 2024 the reddest day of IPEV in Nevada was the reddest, by a wide margin.
2022 is a bad comparison metric for Rs because if the early vote in GA looked like 2022, that would be apocalyptically bad for the GOP.
Are Dem mail voters switching to in person early voting? Maine, one of the only states with both methods in full swing, suggests the answer may be yes. Compared to the same day in 2024:
Mail: Down 46%
In Person: Up 12%, 21% more heavily Dem.
This is a bit misleading. Dunlap still sided with the plaintiffs on the really hot button stuff, i.e. the actual rules restricting what ballots can be mailed. He just dissented on the citizenship list issue.
Varad's 5,000th final warning in the last 18 months! The federal judiciary is terrified. They whisper in hushed tones about Varad's sheer power. A modern Oracle of Delphi.
This is, frankly, an insane take. The median Michigan voter is in their 50s and lives in a mid-sized city. This is a strange theory of the electorate.
These predictions seem odd especially after hope of Platner being an electoral juggernaut crashed and burned. There are essentially no examples of DSA-type candidates who have been able to consistently outperform expectations based on pure political talent, but people keep hoping.
They're listed in alphabetical order? Do these ragebait accounts even read.
A good example of how Colorado's primaries did not fall on the same fault lines, in Pitkin County, which contains Aspen, Michael Bennet did nearly 50% worse than Hickenlooper despite doing ~22% worse overall. Weiser had an appeal to high-income voters that Gonzales lacked.
There is something uniquely self-centered in thinking that other grown adults who also have jobs and apartments and relationships are "using the city as a playground" while you're living in it "for real" because you're depressed and they seem happy.
"But on the ride home, I noticed a gradual but seemingly inexorable shift: the transplants — college-educated 20- and 30-somethings who use the city as a playground — would get off one stop later each year. And later, and later." @unherd.
A Ridgewood native on what's happened to his neighborhood.
unherd.com/2026/07/how-socia…
As much as people say this, voters actually do seem to love the two party system. Even when given ranked choice voting, minor parties still routinely fail to get more than 5% of the votes.
It's not really plausible to say that you are fighting gerontocracy while cheering on rent control. The policy is explicitly premised on shielding longtime residents (aka older people) by funneling all of the downsides of the housing shortage onto upwardly mobile young people.
This article glosses over the biggest issue here, which is that the Constitution sets the terms for Senators at six years. Kansas can't just set an election for the remainder of Marshall's term at 2028, because Marshall's term expires in January 2027.
In other news, the Kansas GOP is reportedly trying to cancel this year’s senate election because they know Roger Marshall is going to lose to Adam Hamilton kansasreflector.com/2026/06/…
