Researcher at Magna Graecia University | Active research interests: multiverse-based statistical analysis, measuring similarity, KPI monitoring and synthesis.

Tenure-tracked Researcher
Joined August 2012
nature.com/articles/s41586-0… Are we past Replication Crisis? I co-authored this study where Economics and Political Science, against original predictions, got convincing scores in terms of credibility of their scientific results. I have a theory for this.
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Sleeping Mantis (it may be dead)
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Many of you don't understand how serious this is, so let me break it down. In computer science there is a famous kind of puzzle called 3-SAT. You are given a long list of yes-or-no switches and a set of rules about how they must be arranged, and you have to find a combination that satisfies every rule. The obvious way to solve it is to try every combination, but each new switch doubles the number of possibilities, so a puzzle with a few hundred switches would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force. For decades, the smartest people in the field found clever tricks that made this a little faster, but every trick still hit the same wall: the time required kept exploding as the puzzle grew. About 25 years ago, two computer scientists, Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi, working with Francis Zane, turned that wall into a formal idea. They proposed the Exponential Time Hypothesis, which says this explosion is not a failure of human cleverness but a law of nature. No algorithm, however brilliant, will ever solve 3-SAT without the time blowing up exponentially. Nobody could prove it, but almost everyone believed it, and it became one of the foundations of modern computer science. Researchers used it as a measuring stick. If you could show that solving some other problem quickly would also crack 3-SAT quickly, you had shown that problem was hopelessly hard too. Hundreds of papers, across scheduling, graphs, logic and much more, rest on this one assumption. Now an internal AI model at OpenAI claims to have broken it. It says it found an algorithm that solves these puzzles meaningfully faster than the hypothesis allows, and it has checked the proof in a computer verification system called Lean. And here is the remarkable part: the very people who proposed the hypothesis, Impagliazzo and Paturi, along with MIT's Ryan Williams, are now leading the public review of whether a machine has disproved their own idea. So what happens next? If the disproof holds, a large part of theoretical computer science has to be revisited. Every result that said "this problem cannot be solved faster, assuming ETH" loses its foundation, and researchers will have to work out which of those walls were real and which were simply where we stopped looking. It does not mean everything becomes easy. The new algorithm is still slow in absolute terms and this is not the famous P versus NP problem being solved. But it means our map of what is possible was wrong in a place we were very confident about, and it was an AI that redrew it. If the disproof fails, the hypothesis survives and the field breathes out, but we will still have watched an AI produce serious, checkable work on one of the deepest questions in the discipline, closely enough that the founders of the idea had to take it seriously. Either way, something has shifted.
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
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"openai just proved pure Yang-Mills existence! which means they proved quantum chromodynamics existence!!" "incredible this changes everything" "do you know what quantum chromodynamics is?" "no, do you?" "no."
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a beggar has no letters
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Serbia's must be the most well-read parliament ever, by the way: 160 PhDs in 250 candidates
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Philip K. Dick never wrote a word of fiction
JUST IN: California rehab operators accused of supplying illegal drugs to recovering addicts to keep them hooked & collect over $210 million from insurers.
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5th October, I predicted Lula could have won with around 50,7% of votes. Let s see how close I got this.
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"An ant can lift fifty times its body weight" sounds impressive unless you understand the square-cube law and realize a human shrunk down to the same size would be able to lift over a hundred and fifty times his body weight.
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This paper is what I have been yelling about for a few years now: the true danger in empirical social sciences is more often "researchers degrees of freedom" in design, data curation, measurement, choice of method. The big threat is not outright fraud or p-hacking (although these are problems) or even biases against publishing null results. Its those hundreds of small choices researchers make when preparing their papers -- none of which are sins of omission or commission. They're good faith human decisions with no malice. Yet, two equally good faith moves can generate different results. This apparently forthcoming paper in Journal of Economic Literature asked 146 research teams to estimate the same causal effect using the same underlying data. In unconstrained setups, they arrived at massively different results. Even in more constrained setups (with more directives), they showed differences. All of which came from picking the design and curating the data (cleaning). Huge! I would reformulate the problem as unexamined researcher degrees of freedom, rather than methodological freedom itself! Indeed, what we need is a strong contestability (and good faith) to point out what could be happening.
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guy at the pumpkin patch lowkey informed me that when the patch runs out of pumpkins they just go to walmart and get more. i got my other pumpkins at walmart. so im standing in a field getting the same exact pumpkins i have at home. and they all came from walmart.
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IMHO, when humans looks back at developments in the western world during the 20th c a few centuries from now, American racism and its consequences will be a historical footnote. The big stories will be:
Am I supposed to believe that in this epoch, one of the most consequential in humanity’s long history, the most important developments circled around anti-colonialism and conceptions of race in the United States?
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What remains of the Christian Democracy is "lending" votes towards an ex Communist leader to help him to participate to next elections. Boomers have a sense of solidariety for their boomer peers that trascends any other personal principle.
Il centrodestra presta soccorso a Marco #Rizzo: il senatore Antonio #Guidi, già ministro per la Famiglia nel 1994-95, lascia il gruppo Civici d’Italia (dove era già in prestito da #FdI per consentire a Noi Moderati e UDC di formare un gruppo autonomo) e passa al Misto, creando la componente "Italia Domani – Marco Rizzo". Il partito dell’ex leader comunista può così presentarsi alle elezioni senza l’obbligo di raccogliere tante firme.
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If a paper is written by multiple authors, and one is more famous than the rest, it is so insulting to act as if all the ideas in the paper come from the famous researcher. It is an important tell if you see a scientist do this.
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Tl;de: wisdom of crowds. Prediction markets are well calibrated. Using 1 million predictions, stuff that is bet to happen with a 0.7 probability happens 70% of the time.
🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it? Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years. The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons. But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections). For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future. That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is. This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses. 📄 Read the paper: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26… #Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS
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What a wide array.
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I agree with @drmichaellevin: “emergence” is not an explanation but something to explain. In our recent perspective, persistence is emergent when it resides in relationships rather than components. We ask how higher-order constraints and timescale separation can produce it.
“One of the worst things that slows down progress is the concept of 'emergence.'” This week on 632nm, @drmichaellevin (@TuftsUniversity) argues that the concept of emergence can hold science back by treating unexpected biological behavior as an explanation rather than something to investigate. “Emergence just means surprise... You didn’t see it coming.” If we call something “emergent,” we still need to explain why this behavior emerged instead of another. The goal should be to understand the underlying patterns well enough to predict and control them. We discuss how this perspective could reshape biology, our understanding of intelligence, and AI. Full episode on X and YouTube (see comment). Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:16 - Platonic Space 03:55 - Biology in the Absence of Evolution 21:11 - Extracting Knowledge from Platonic Space 37:04 - Development and Loss Functions 50:09 - Investigating Layers of Control 55:35 - Is Computer Science Misleading Our Understanding of Minds? 58:14 - Bioelectric Patterns and Drug Discovery 1:04:07 - How to Build a Predictive Developmental Model 1:13:20 - Levin’s Top Books, Thoughts on Collective Existence 1:18:00 - Questions that Keep Michael Up at Night 1:22:32 - How Does Levin Interact with AI?
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Wow, can't believe I'm seeing a Simpsons paradox in the wild! Having a blessed day
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Nel 2026 il Fisco italiano usa intelligenza artificiale, immagini satellitari e banche dati incrociate per individuare immobili non dichiarati. Ma continua a calcolare le imposte su rendite catastali costruite con tariffe del 1988-89. Un esempio concreto, con numeri ipotetici. Due seconde case nello stesso Comune, entrambe soggette a IMU con aliquota dello 0,86%. Immobile A Valore di mercato: 450.000 € Rendita catastale: 800 € Base imponibile IMU: 134.400 € IMU annua: 1.155,84 € Immobile B Valore di mercato: 180.000 € Rendita catastale: 900 € Base imponibile IMU: 151.200 € IMU annua: 1.300,32 € Risultato: il proprietario dell'immobile che vale 270.000 € in più paga 144,48 € di IMU in meno ogni anno. È una distorsione possibile in un sistema in cui i valori catastali non seguono necessariamente l'evoluzione del mercato immobiliare. Nel frattempo, lo Stato investe in algoritmi per individuare abusi, ampliamenti e immobili fantasma, ma non affronta una revisione generale degli estimi catastali. Bisogna quindi modernizzare gli strumenti di controllo lasciando sostanzialmente fermo il criterio con cui si decide quanto ciascuno debba pagare. Il Fisco può diventare tecnologicamente più efficiente senza diventare fiscalmente più equo!
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