🇦🇷 | Swing trader since 2010 | Charts-focused TA (some macro) | Market psychology | Trading - Bitcoin, Gold, Stock Indices & DeFi | NFA - I don't have a TG!
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Joined November 2015
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$BTC - Roadmap Update
I’ve made some slight adjustments to my roadmap to make it more precise through the next halving in 2028.
I’ve lowered the projected cycle/macro bottom. Initially, I was targeting the mid-50s, but after reassessing recent macro and monetary developments, combined with this violent price action brushing the 60k zone, I now believe it’s highly probable we see a macro bottom in the 40s between August - October.
As shown on the chart, I’m projecting a possible new ATH in the first half of 2027.
As I’ve explained before, the permabulls claiming that “this cycle is different” were completely wrong since they expected the bull market to continue into 2026, while I warned about a bear market this year, but also about a structural shift in Bitcoin’s cycle timing toward 2027/28.
We’re going through a period of structural change in monetary policy and liquidity flows.
After a decades-long downtrend in interest rates, the Federal Reserve broke that trend in 2022 with the fastest and most aggressive hiking cycle in history.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury is shifting toward issuing more short-term debt and less long-term debt.
We also know that the Fed’s balance sheet is undergoing a structural transformation, increasingly composed of short-duration assets.
That said, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Fed implements some form of policy to control long-term yields (10Y) , likely in H2 2026, or possibly toward year-end.
Since the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Powell, markets have reacted negatively, given his reputation as a more orthodox, anti-QE economist.
However, I’m convinced that if liquidity conditions deteriorate or bank reserves approach critical levels, political pressure would eventually force even someone like Warsh to take decisive action.
Just as we saw an ATH in 2024 before the halving, I believe Bitcoin cycles may begin to follow a new dynamic, where investors front-run the halving, rather than waiting for it to happen before accumulating BTC.
#Bitcoin
I created this #Bitcoin roadmap in early December, and so far my view hasn’t changed.
Since mid-October, after the 10/10 crash, I started warning about the possibility that 126k was the cycle top and that we were entering a corrective phase toward 80k (pinned post).
While I was convinced of this scenario, I didn’t expect it to unfold so fast.
That sharp and violent drop was, in my opinion, a signal to broader markets.
$BTC often front-runs most assets.
This is my third Bitcoin cycle, and over the years I’ve studied the asset deeply and the fundamental drivers behind its price appreciation. I’ve come to understand that Bitcoin is essentially a pure liquidity asset, almost a perfect barometer of global liquidity.
It’s important to clarify that M2 and liquidity are not the same thing. Just because M2 keeps rising doesn’t mean that money supply is truly liquid. And even when liquidity exists, it doesn’t necessarily flow directly into Bitcoin or financial markets.
That’s why understanding liquidity cycles, driven by debt and sovereign bond restructuring, is crucial.
For those claiming that Bitcoin 4-year cycle no longer exists or makes no sense, I’d suggest studying liquidity cycles.
Maybe.. just maybe.. you’d understand why Satoshi Nakamoto hardcoded a halving every four years. It does make sense, doesn’t it?
Why does all of this people fade miners aswell?...
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin will follow the exact same 4-year pattern forever, but right now from a technical + macro + liquidity perspective, it does seem to repeat the cycle top behaviour.
But we might see a different bull market cycle from now on, especially now that the Fed is starting to reshape its balance sheet toward shorter-duration assets.
That’s why my roadmap from here points to a new ATH well before the next halving.
I wrote about this in my article from late November.
You can read it here 👉 gmartind.substack.com/p/bitc…
That said, Bitcoin is still a young and speculative asset, especially when considering it as a safe haven. I strongly believe it has all the characteristics needed to become digital gold, but it still needs time.
This is why another key driver of Bitcoin’s price has always been strong narratives that form during each bull market.
When the liquidity cycle reaches its peak, those bullish narratives lose their effectiveness.
So far, everything I’ve been warning about since October has played out. At this stage, Bitcoin appears to have set a local top during this relief rally, which I’ve been talking about since November.
I still see a small chance of a push back toward 100k, and I believe that would trigger peak FOMO, likely followed by a much more violent selloff, similar to what we saw in November.
Altho, for now, Bitcoin’s price action doesn’t look very bullish. Part of this may be explained by the chaos generated by Trump and the historic structural changes in global trade that are unfolding.
This also helps explain the secular move we’re seeing in #Gold and #Silver.
"Bears" are expecting another -10% from here..
Max bearishness on my feed while $BTC is almost -10% from the local top, attempting to break a support level that has shown to hold over and over again for the past 5 weeks...
Do you think they are bearish because they don't believe in #Bitcoin?
Or is it because they are completely sidelined and they are desperate to buy?
$BTC: Multi-timeframe analysis
Even a deviation into $78K would still be normal within the bullish structure.
The fast 12-Week EMA is catching up with price, while the 50-Week EMA is already turning up and working as structural support.
Weekly MACD is above 0 and RSI is above 50, looking for support, both showing strong bullish momentum.
The 3-Day Stochastic is already oversold, while volume is increasing during a very slow-paced retracement. Not much strength from bears, imo.
So far, this looks like a typical uptrend structure of elevator up and stairs down.
I don’t see any reason to think the $75K lows are at risk. In fact, I am still aiming for the low $90ks
#Bitcoin
Might be hard to believe, but what if we start seeing a major decoupling of #Bitcoin / Crypto from tech stocks?
Now, I am NOT calling for a stock bear market. In fact, there are certain sectors that are skyrocketing, like energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, financial services/global payment networks, etc.
But lately I’ve been reading a lot of things about AI that remind me a lot of the “complacency” phase of the psychological cycle.
After the bounce during August/September, the whole narrative was that we might need a period to cool off before the next rally...
Now it starts to feel like many are getting a bit anxious.
Meanwhile, in Crypto, it feels like disbelief... doesn’t it?
Many people are still expecting huge sell-offs after prices go up.
Those are the scars of a bear market talking, where the fear of massive drops shows up on every small pullback, the fear of getting fooled by another “sucker’s rally.”
But I believe we are in a market where capital rotation seems to be the meta for investors.
And considering the tailwinds coming for Crypto, combined with the reflexivity of Bitcoin price action shifting toward a bullish structure...
I definitely think most are still in Disbelief.
Add $ENA into that list of Altcoins looking ready to continue higher.
$ZEC
$HYPE
$VVV
$LIT
$BNB
$UNI
For now this are the ones I like the most.
But I am paying attention to many others that might need a bit more time.
Of course, it all depends on $BTC and $ETH ..
But some of this I mentioned have been in a bull market for a while regardless of what Bitcoin was doing.
I am going to share some trending Altcoins setups for a swing high.
It's simple, as long as #Bitcoin makes a higher high, this alts will also rally higher.
base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf
#GOLD update
There has been a lot of bearishness around Gold lately, interestingly, right at a Monthly support.
The “news” about that startup supposedly being able to create pure Gold through a mercury fusion method triggered a panic sell last week.
If you go through all the Gold posts quoted below, you will find how I’ve been expecting price to reach these support levels, including a bounce from $4,000, where I bought during June/July, all published here. (Physical Gold btw.)
You can even search further back and find older posts from Q1 where I was already expecting this type of pullback and PA.
I also expected this current retracement after the bounce back to $4,500, in order to start forming a higher low, BUT I wasn’t ruling out a lower low and a continuation of a prolonged bottom formation.
What’s interesting to me, is how narratives form at the extremes.
During late Q4 ’25, the narrative was extremely bullish. But as soon as Gold started falling, especially after the conflict with Iran started, everyone began wondering why that was happening if Gold was supposedly a safe haven asset.
Personally, I believe asset prices tend to front-run news/events.
And after such a parabolic rally since 2024, it only makes sense to expect this kind of drawdown and sideways PA.
Which takes us to the current support.
Right now, everyone seems to agree that Gold should fall into the $3,000–$3,500 support area.
I have charts pointing to this zone as “Long-Term Accumulation Zone 2.”
But I always prefer to go step by step, and I don’t think this current support will be as easy to break as everyone expects.
We still have one more week before October closes, and if we can see a bounce with a small wick on the Monthly candle, I believe this support could hold.
If not, there is still a Monthly FVG zone to be tested around $3,850 (a sweep below current lows)
Considering the extreme bearishness, bad sentiment, and narratives around the $4,000 support, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce soon.
As I said before, asset prices tend to front-run the news/data...
So I wonder:
How much of all the current bad news is already priced in?
A lot of #GOLD posts lately claiming that a lower low is inevitable...
Let’s not jump to that conclusion so fast.
After such a parabolic run, we all knew that Gold would take its time to prepare for the next leg up.
While a lower low has definitely been in my plans for a long time, this new demand zone between $3,950–$4,100, created after such a parabolic move, will be hard to break.
I think how this Weekly candle and the next one react inside this zone will tell us a lot.
We will probably see price range between $4,000 and $4,300 before any strong breakout lower.
In case price keeps trending lower, then I expect a quick sweep into the Monthly area of $3,800–$3,900 and back up inside the 1-year range.
If you cannot endure a bit of a drawdown during bull market pullbacks, how do you expect to make money?
My 81.8K $BTC long is in a small loss for now.
Originally, my order was at 81.5K. But when I see price getting close enough to my orders and I’m paying attention to the market, I usually try to execute them manually.
Might have been a bit early, but directionally, I think I’m right.
The stop loss is at 72K, so I’m not worried. Even if price somehow sweeps below the 75K lows, I believe it won’t reach my SL.
In fact, I have additional orders at 78K and 74.5K.
My $BTC buy orders for the long-term position are already sitting between 75K–79K.
I’m also still holding the 81.8K long with SL at 72K.
That one is only a short-term swing, targeting the 90K+ zone.
My strategy from here is very simple:
I already have a good chunk of capital allocated to #Bitcoin at 74.9k average.
The remaining cash will be deployed strategically at strong support.
And if BTC refuses to give me those lower entries and the uptrend keeps developing?
I’ll wait for the right opportunity to open a 3x long.
I will share it here when it comes.
Now, a LOT can still happen before the Weekly close.
But if this candle closes like this, I think there is a high chance we get another deviation / sweep of the lows next week.
There is A LOT of bullish confluence supporting this zone:
Momentum indicators.
Price testing key short-term moving averages for the first time.
And most importantly, the trend/price structure remains bullish.
Personally, I don’t think BTC goes as deep as 75K.
Every small pullback keeps getting bought almost instantly.
Meanwhile, the “bears” waiting for the BIG sell-off so they can finally buy may end up doing what they’ve been doing for weeks...
Chasing price higher...
That’s exactly why my orders are spread across a wide range starting from 79k.
The STUBBORN support does it again lol
The 50-Day EMA does not give up!
Stubborn support: 8
Bears: 0
$BTC
#Bitcoin is hitting all the support areas that I mentioned in early October.
Price and trend structure remain bullish... I still can’t see any signs of weakness.
Perhaps a weak Weekly candle that might trigger another sweep of the lows next week into 78K?
Besides that, I don’t understand why there is so much bear porn on CT right now.
A lot of celebration thinking $BTC is breaking below 75K soon, instead of taking this opportunity to buy.
bitcoin:native
Waiting for the quoted post idea to play out.
The reason is simple. I still believe this current range has more supports that can hold.
The 81k-82k range..
Or a quick sweep below, into 79k, but needs to reject fast and hold above 81k
#Bitcoin
This shows only $BTC Fear & Greed sentiment.
Yesterday, Bitcoin hit the same level as the September lows, right before the rally to new highs.
Pretty sure we will get an even lower print after today’s move.
That’s a clear divergence from price if traders are more fearful at these lows than they were in September.
It also shows how most people were probably overleveraged at the 87K top and are now capitulating, or close to it.
$ETH:
I am liking what I see right now.
Only traders who bought the top with high leverage are panicking.
I first bought at $2350 with 3x leverage.
My next order remains at $2250 and depending on how price action develops I might have to execute manually.
Step by step.
$BTC:
I didn't wait for price to hit my order at 79k so I executed manually.
The rest of the orders are still the same.
All I can see right now is #Bitcoin ranging to the downside, preparing for a face melting move to the upside.
My buying average is now 75.3k
My $BTC buy orders for the long-term position are already sitting between 75K–79K.
I’m also still holding the 81.8K long with SL at 72K.
That one is only a short-term swing, targeting the 90K+ zone.
My strategy from here is very simple:
I already have a good chunk of capital allocated to #Bitcoin at 74.9k average.
The remaining cash will be deployed strategically at strong support.
And if BTC refuses to give me those lower entries and the uptrend keeps developing?
I’ll wait for the right opportunity to open a 3x long.
I will share it here when it comes.
Now, a LOT can still happen before the Weekly close.
But if this candle closes like this, I think there is a high chance we get another deviation / sweep of the lows next week.
There is A LOT of bullish confluence supporting this zone:
Momentum indicators.
Price testing key short-term moving averages for the first time.
And most importantly, the trend/price structure remains bullish.
Personally, I don’t think BTC goes as deep as 75K.
Every small pullback keeps getting bought almost instantly.
Meanwhile, the “bears” waiting for the BIG sell-off so they can finally buy may end up doing what they’ve been doing for weeks...
Chasing price higher...
That’s exactly why my orders are spread across a wide range starting from 79k.
My $BTC buy orders for the long-term position are already sitting between 75K–79K.
I’m also still holding the 81.8K long with SL at 72K.
That one is only a short-term swing, targeting the 90K+ zone.
My strategy from here is very simple:
I already have a good chunk of capital allocated to #Bitcoin at 74.9k average.
The remaining cash will be deployed strategically at strong support.
And if BTC refuses to give me those lower entries and the uptrend keeps developing?
I’ll wait for the right opportunity to open a 3x long.
I will share it here when it comes.
Now, a LOT can still happen before the Weekly close.
But if this candle closes like this, I think there is a high chance we get another deviation / sweep of the lows next week.
There is A LOT of bullish confluence supporting this zone:
Momentum indicators.
Price testing key short-term moving averages for the first time.
And most importantly, the trend/price structure remains bullish.
Personally, I don’t think BTC goes as deep as 75K.
Every small pullback keeps getting bought almost instantly.
Meanwhile, the “bears” waiting for the BIG sell-off so they can finally buy may end up doing what they’ve been doing for weeks...
Chasing price higher...
That’s exactly why my orders are spread across a wide range starting from 79k.
$BTC: Multi-timeframe analysis
Even a deviation into $78K would still be normal within the bullish structure.
The fast 12-Week EMA is catching up with price, while the 50-Week EMA is already turning up and working as structural support.
Weekly MACD is above 0 and RSI is above 50, looking for support, both showing strong bullish momentum.
The 3-Day Stochastic is already oversold, while volume is increasing during a very slow-paced retracement. Not much strength from bears, imo.
So far, this looks like a typical uptrend structure of elevator up and stairs down.
I don’t see any reason to think the $75K lows are at risk. In fact, I am still aiming for the low $90ks
#Bitcoin
“We could still see shallow higher highs.”
Weekly MACD was still printing red while $SPX kept making new highs.
Looks like the S&P500 needs a healthy reset, at least back to the 50-Week EMA.
Considering how long sentiment has been in “fear / extreme fear” territory, I think the 50W EMA around $7,200–$7,400 should be a bid.
Something to consider about the S&P500 is that the current trend tends to extend exhaustion moves for much longer than people expect.
Even with rate hikes, we could still see these very weak and shallow higher highs. In fact, that would be a perfect recipe for a bull trap.
Pay close attention to the Weekly MACD. If it keeps printing bearish momentum while price attempts to move higher but keeps getting rejected, then it’s very likely we eventually see a strong pullback, like the last two times.
The Weekly RSI crossing below 50 seems to be the perfect signal so far.
While I’m still relatively bullish, the HTF trend still looks okayish after all, so I’ll be looking to buy the dip.
But these are just warnings not to fall for a bull trap.
Also, the Monthly chart looks weak. The whole move from April until now is starting to look like typical exhaustion PA.
I am still thinking there is a high chance of testing $7000 again in the coming 2 months.
$SPX
If this is true then I'll become a full Bitcoin maxi
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
I am still holding my $ETH long from $2350.
Next order is still at $2250
#Bitcoin is up +25% since the war with Iran started.
Yesterday, BTC instantly dropped again on the re-escalation with Iran, right before the Daily close.
I’ve honestly lost count of how many times we’ve seen this happen.
Now?.. Fear about AI taking over the internet is EVERYWHERE.
Bad headlines get SPAMMED all at once.
Asset prices drop.
People panic-sell.
And the selling starts feeding on itself.
Meanwhile, the underlying trend structure remains completely intact.
That’s why, during a bullish structure, I would MUCH rather buy the fearful dip than chase the euphoric rip.
And don’t ruin a good setup by getting greedy with high leverage.
If you use it, 2x or 3x with proper risk management should be more than fine.
This range is really testing our patience.
Nothing has changed so far. #Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure.
Price got rejected at 85K yesterday and closed below the previous range POC.
I was expecting a dip, but this is a bit more violent than I thought... it’s making everyone panic.
As long as $BTC keeps rejecting the 80K–81.5K area, there is nothing to worry about.
Ideally, we want to see today’s candle close above 82.5K if we expect a quick continuation higher.
Otherwise, I expect more chop, even another sweep of the lows where I have buy orders waiting.
