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Guinea opened a gold refinery on November 1 built for 733 tonnes a year. The country produced about 70 tonnes in 2025.
Arman Sidhu on West Africa’s refinery wave and where the bars will go:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/refi…
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Under rules both of Taiwan’s main parties wrote, settling the independence question would take roughly 9.8 million yes votes. The only constitutional amendment ever put to voters got 5.6 million.
Meng Kit Tang on the question no ballot has asked:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/alre…
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Fifty shadow tankers flying the Russian flag delivered Russian oil in September, up from 22 a year earlier. Falsely flagged tankers now carry 2% of the fleet’s oil.
Simone Chiusa on why Europe’s boardings are running out of targets:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/russ…
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Georgia’s Anaklia port was to go to a Chinese-led consortium. It sits about 30 km from a planned Russian naval base, and the deal did not go ahead.
@TolgaDemiryol on the bargain between Moscow and Beijing:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/mosc…
Russia arranged Transnistria’s ceasefire in 1992 and recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the 2008 war in Georgia.
Halina Sapeha and Emmanuel Brunet-Jailly on why freezing Ukraine’s front line would repeat the pattern:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/froz…
India approved ₹2.12 trillion ($22.3 billion) in military procurement on October 26, five days after Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar, and Indonesia signed the Badr defence-industrial MoU.
What the post-Sindoor buying spree is meant to achieve:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-…
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Russia’s Africa Corps moved into Niger after US troops left in 2024. Now Washington has lifted sanctions on three Malian officials and is in talks to fly surveillance missions over Mali again.
Can the US outbid Moscow?
geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-…
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Canada’s first national security strategy in over 20 years names no country as a direct threat. The 2024 defense policy update singled out Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
The middle power playbook in action:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/cana…
Putin met Pezeshkian in Moscow on October 27. Trade up 10.4%, Bushehr construction continuing, no new ceasefire proposal.
What Russia wants from the Iran war:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/puti…
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Germany is borrowing to rearm. France, facing a projected 2027 deficit of 6.4% of GDP without corrective action, cannot keep pace.
Who balances a rearmed Germany when France can’t?
geopoliticalmonitor.com/germ…
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Oil through Hormuz fell from 21.6m to 4.9m barrels a day. Flows through Bab el-Mandeb rose from 5.4m to 8.1m.
Bypassing one chokepoint moves the risk to another:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/horm…
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EU ports can inspect only 2–10% of containers. In 68% of the 2,600 drug seizures one global study examined, people working in the cargo supply chain were involved.
How cocaine networks exploit the world’s ports:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/drug…
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Tariff threats got Mexico to send 10,000 troops to the border. They could not build the prosecutors and police that lasting security needs.
The case for a US-Mexico bargain that rewards verified progress with restraint:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/us-m…
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Updated backgrounder: Russia’s gray zone campaign in Europe, now through October 2026, from the drone found at Leipzig airport to Germany ordering Russia’s Bonn consulate closed.
geopoliticalmonitor.com/russ…
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Every Chinese warship bound for the open Pacific must pass the first island chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines.
The US plans to hold it with missiles. China is contesting the waters with its coast guard:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/firs…
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Iran’s central bank has told banks to lend at least half of each province’s deposits inside that province, as US sanctions tighten.
Why Tehran’s wartime banking fixes could backfire — @RoushJackW
geopoliticalmonitor.com/iran…
Vučić resigned Serbia’s presidency to run for prime minister. The Student List, a slate chosen by student protesters, beat his bloc 52.6% to 39.2%.
What comes after the SNS:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/serb…
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India built the airstrip on Mauritius’s Agalega island, 1,100 miles from Diego Garcia, and is training 500 of its senior civil servants.
Arman Sidhu on whether Mauritius is becoming New Delhi’s satellite:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/indi…
Canada is weighing the Gripen to cut its reliance on US fighter software. The Gripen E flies on an American engine that Washington must approve for export.
Meng Kit Tang on the four answers Canada’s fighter review still owes:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/cana…
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Washington is raising tariffs on imported chips just as the 35% tax credit for building US fabs runs out for any project not started by December 31.
Arman Sidhu on a tariff order that is not yet a production order:
geopoliticalmonitor.com/semi…
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