Will senior United States and Iranian representatives hold a diplomatic meeting between October 27 and November 30, 2026? Our number: 4% (very unlikely) gameout.ai/runs/36939158-611…

Will the FDA publicly confirm approval of deramiocel for upper limb function in Duchenne muscular dystrophy by November 30, 2026? Our number: 2% (very unlikely) gameout.ai/runs/31dfac8e-e3b…

Who will win the United States Senate election in Illinois on November 3, 2026? Juliana Stratton: 97% gameout.ai/runs/a4b51d51-69b…

Will Anthropic make a Fable model designated version 5.2 or higher publicly available by October 31, 2026? Our number: 1% (very unlikely) gameout.ai/runs/c5c103f1-a71…

The calls we're most sure about right now. Each one is dated, stays up, and gets scored when it settles. Think one of these is wrong? Quote it. All our forecasts: gameout.ai/our-forecasts

Now forecasting: Will California Proposition 40, the billionaire tax measure, pass in the November 3, 2026 election? Our number: 6% (unlikely) Where do you land? Quote this with your number. gameout.ai/runs/c42e9c86-d58…

Now forecasting: Will Jon Ossoff win Georgia's November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff against Mike Collins on December 1, 2026? Our number: 91% (very likely) Where do you land? Quote this with your number. gameout.ai/runs/c2d79b30-801…

Now forecasting: Will Katie Hobbs defeat Andy Biggs by winning Arizona’s gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026? Our number: 84% (likely) Taking the other side? Quote this and tell us why. gameout.ai/runs/8c66664f-d77…

Now forecasting: Which party will hold at least 218 seats in the United States House of Representatives when the new Congress begins on January 3, 2027? Democratic Party: 83% Think we have the wrong favorite? Quote this and say why. gameout.ai/runs/573199e0-c5b…

Updated: Which team will win the 2026 MLB World Series, with a winner declared by December 31… Milwaukee Brewers: now 94%, up from 79% Think we have the wrong favorite? Quote this and say why. gameout.ai/runs/cfdb3b0c-ba2…

What should we forecast next? Reply with a question about a real event: something with a date, and a public source that will settle it. We'll game out some of the best ones in public.

In GameOut, you create forecasts by chatting with an AI agent. Its job is to define the scope and question of the forecast job with surgical precision. As you chat, it proposes structured "Forecast Cards" that you can refine through conversation. Once you're satisfied, click "Game it out" to launch the forecast. That's it. Your participation ends there. The rest is automated. About 1-3 hours and 3-4 million tokens later, your forecast is delivered. Check out our public predictions: gameout.ai/our-forecasts

Now forecasting: Who will win the Ohio gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026? Amy Acton: 66% Who's your pick? Quote this and tell us why. gameout.ai/runs/c63c8b4c-935…

New forecast: Will Apple announce a MacBook Pro with a touchscreen by October 31, 2026? Our number: 84% (likely) Where do you land? Quote this with your number. gameout.ai/runs/6b606c07-f6d…

Now forecasting: Which team will win the 2026 MLB World Series, with a winner declared by December 31, 2026? Milwaukee Brewers: 79% Different pick? Quote this with yours. gameout.ai/runs/cfdb3b0c-ba2…

New forecast: Will the Strait of Hormuz reach a seven-day average of at least 60 ship transits on any date from October 27 through November 30, 2026? Our number: 1% (very unlikely) gameout.ai/runs/d8145557-e3d…

Now forecasting: Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel at any time by December 31, 2026? Our number: 31% (not likely) gameout.ai/runs/fc348e29-331…

Thank you for reading. * GameOut is a @SitDeck project. If you're interested in monitoring the situation, be sure to check Sitdeck.com out (it's free!)

FAQs How is it different than prediction markets? We use prediction markets as one factor in our forecasts, but prediction markets are not forecasts. They are bets. We apply a scientific method to predict the future using a structured process. We believe our tools are useful for prediction market betters. But very different things, fundamentally. How accurate is it? We'll see. In our testing, surprisingly accurate. But this is a live, public test. So we'll have to see how it does. We are intentionally launching now with a range of 2026-settle events, including elections, as a test. Should I gamble with GameOut forecasts? Probably not. Why does GameOut use multiple models? Models are selected largely based on the goal of trying to get a diverse set of perspectives. Training data varies model-to-model and offers one way to get different perspectives. We also utilize each model in multiple ways. The theory goes: the sum of all AI might be more predictive than any one AI. How many tokens does GameOut burn per prediction? Around 4 million across models. What if GameOut is wrong? It will be honest about it, and we will use incorrect forecasts to adjust and improve our process automatically. How do I suggest a forecast topic? Reply to our threads on X, or when you create an account, you can suggest one in the app itself. What are GameOut's future plans? We believe forecasting is important, and everyone should have access to forecasting tools. We will validate our technology first and refine it. When we are confident it is reliable, we will open it up to the public to run forecasts yourself on any question you have. Will GameOut be free once users can use it? Probably not. Because tokens are expensive, we doubt we will be able to offer it for free. We also worry that if it is free, it will be flooded with unserious requests. We will keep it cheap and affordable and post here once it is available for use. Why is it different than just asking an LLM? We tried that too, and realized that LLMs cannot forecast. They can only guess. Forecasting requires a significant amount of looping and a custom logic. We built our own harness to make this possible. Additionally, a single LLM is biased to its own training data. Multiple models can provide perspectives that one will never be able to.

Oh, and if you'd like us to forecast an event we haven't yet, just reply here and we will! website -> gameout.ai methods -> gameout.ai/models models -> gameout.ai/methods how it works -> gameout.ai/how-it-works live forecasts -> gameout.ai/our-forecasts