Deputy Garry Collins 🇬🇬

I agree with Deputy Burford on one thing: this debate should be based on facts, and people should consider the evidence in full. Having now had the opportunity to review the evidence, accompanied by Deputies Haley Camp and Garry Collins, I left with even greater concerns than I had before. Without pre-empting a more detailed analysis, I was surprised to learn that key household expenditure data is still based on 2018/19 spending patterns, with no adjustments having been made to reflect changes in consumer behaviour since then. I was equally surprised to see that one of the two principal models being relied upon was built in 2017/18, uses 2019 data, and is an Excel spreadsheet that can take around half an hour to process a single change to the assumptions. For one of the biggest changes to Guernsey’s tax system in decades, I do not believe it is unreasonable to ask whether the underlying data and modelling are sufficiently current and robust. If P&R believes the evidence supports its case, then publish it in full. Let Islanders, businesses and independent experts examine it and reach their own conclusions. If the evidence is robust, it should withstand public scrutiny.