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Joined April 2009
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The hottest inflation print in months, and the prediction markets got LESS hawkish. Make it make sense.
December Fed hike: Kalshi went from 77-78¢ before Thursday's PCE print to 69-70¢ now. Polymarket went from 76.5% to 70%. FedWatch snapshots after PCE (3.6%) and GDP (3.4%) were showing 82-86%.
That's a 12-15 point gap. I think the prediction markets are the ones that are wrong. Who's taking the other side?
Without Anthony Edwards last season, Jaden McDaniels:
• 18.7 PPG (13.8 with him)
• 33.4 min (31.3)
• 7/16 over 17.5 pts
• MIN 10-6
This season: 15.0 PPG, 0/4 over 17.5.
Polymarket's 17.5 line is thin. The question is how much of Ant's 33 PPG he absorbs.
I don’t think he can pick up the slack
Ernie Johnson says this will be his last season hosting Inside the NBA after 37 years: "Totally my decision. It's just time." He says he's not retiring, just cutting back.
🎥 @turnersportsej
teapawt.net/turnersportsej/status/…
The Bears are priced like an NFC contender and a division underdog at the same time, and one of those is wrong.
Polymarket has Chicago at 14.5% to win the NFC (up 2 points this week), second only to the 49ers at 25%. Kalshi's NFC market has them at 12–13¢. But Kalshi's NFC North market has the Bears at just 25–26¢, behind Minnesota at 40–42¢, even though the Vikings are only about 10% to win the conference.
They're 5-2, just added Jeffery Simmons, and are reportedly talking to the Chargers about Khalil Mack. What's your number for Chicago winning the North?
Kalshi is too high on PSG, and I think Polymarket has it right.
Kalshi has PSG at 19–20¢ to win the Champions League, while Polymarket has 16.5%. That's about a 3-point gap on the same team, and Barcelona sits at 22–23 on both.
Kvaratskhelia is out after ACL surgery, and Dembélé and Marquinhos are hurt. Yes, they just beat Barça 4-2. So which venue is wrong?
The market is overreacting to OKC's injury report, and I'm buying the dip.
Polymarket cut the Thunder's 2027 title odds from about 23.5% to 17.5% in one week. Kalshi has them at 15–16¢, down from 18¢. They're 4-1 while playing without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace.
The Spurs are about 22% on both venues. Is a healthy OKC really a 5-point dog to San Antonio? Tell me I'm wrong.
Four games in, some prop lines are still priced off last season:
• Sabonis o13.5 reb: 4/4 (was 5/19 last year)
• LaVine o21.5 pts: 4/4 (was 13/39)
• Ty Jerome o23.5 pts: 3/4 (was 2/15)
• Harden o17.5 pts: 1/4 (was 58/70)
Small samples, but which ones are real?
Time will tell!
Three NBA games tonight. I lined up DraftKings (no-vig), Kalshi, and Polymarket on every one:
CLE-ATL: 51.1 / 50.5 / 50.5
SAC-NO: 66.9 / 67 / 67.5
MEM-POR: 70.5 / 71.5 / 71.5
All within about a point. On quiet nights the exchanges and the books are basically one market.
Love when things are in sync!
This week the NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction-market partners. A couple of days later, Saquon Barkley said the NFL made him sell his Polymarket stake.
Two leagues looking at the same markets and landing in opposite places.
Seems like the NFL is lagging behind!
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley said he was forced to divest his equity stake in Polymarket to comply with NFL rules.
Barkley told Front Office Sports that the league told players that being involved with prediction markets is no longer allowed. spr.ly/6012BHltU6
Kalshi repriced Anthony Edwards' knee news in real time.
MIN to beat GSW tonight:
• Kalshi before: ~78¢
• Kalshi now: ~60¢
• DK no-vig (MIN -162): 59.3%
An ~18-pt haircut for a guy averaging 33.3 PPG. Exchange and book now agree within a point.
Crazy how fast the odds change, gotta love it!
Kalshi/Polymarket vs DraftKings no-vig, all 12 NBA games tonight:
10 of 12 within 1 pt.
The 2 outliers are both Kalshi:
• ATL 57.5¢ vs DK 59.3% (Poly 59.5¢)
• CLE 78.5¢ vs DK 76.6% (Poly 77.5¢)
Kalshi's Heat side has ~86k contracts traded vs ~18k on ATL.
Let’s see which one ends up right this time!
The market has Warsh holding today and hiking in six weeks. I'm not buying the second half yet.
Hold at 2 PM: Kalshi 95¢, Polymarket 94.85%. A 25 bp hike in December: Kalshi 75¢, Polymarket 76.5%.
That's a lot of conviction for a chair who likes light forward guidance. If he doesn't lean into December at 2:30, that 75 is the most mispriced number on the board.
Where would you set it?
Kalshi and Polymarket can't agree on the East, and I think Kalshi is wrong about Philly.
2027 NBA title: Sixers 12¢ on Kalshi, 10.25% on Polymarket. Pistons 3¢ on Kalshi, 4.4% on Polymarket.
Detroit just beat Philly 106-93 and outrebounded them 54-37. Kalshi still prices the Sixers at 4x the Pistons. Polymarket says closer to 2.3x.
One of these books is asleep. Which one?
The Rays are overpriced to win the World Series, and the market's own Game 5 line says so.
Kalshi has Tampa at 9.7¢ to win it all (4.2¢ before last night's 12th-inning walk-off), Polymarket 9.25%. But Kalshi has the Rays at 42¢ tonight, and FanDuel's +126 works out to about 44%.
Win three straight at 42% and you get 7.4%. Even at 44% it's 8.5%. And Games 6 and 7 are in Milwaukee.
So who's paying 9.7 for this, and what do you know that the game line doesn't?
The NFL is the only major league without a prediction-market deal, and its markets already line up with the books anyway.
Falcons at Bucs on Sunday:
DraftKings TB -135, about 55% once you strip the vig
Kalshi 54–55¢
Polymarket 55¢
No league deal, and the same price everywhere.
When will the NFL align with the other leagues?
teapawt.net/FOS/status/21147216162…
The NBA has named Kalshi and Polymarket as its “preferred prediction market partners."
The NFL is now the biggest remaining U.S. men's league without a prediction market deal, as MLB, NHL, and MLS are all partnered with at least one.
Story: frontofficesports.com/articl…
Here's how tonight's NBA favorites price across the three venues (DraftKings with the vig stripped, then Kalshi, then Polymarket):
Celtics 81.7 / 83.5 / 82.5
Knicks 58.3 / 60.5 / 60.5
Spurs 91.2 / 92.5 / 91.5
Lakers 56.3 / 57.5 / 57.5
Both exchanges have every favorite a point or two higher than the book.
Let’s see which exchange got it right
teapawt.net/DavidPurdum/status/211…
Hot take: the Rays at 3% are too cheap.
Polymarket has Tampa winning the World Series at 3.35%, Kalshi at 4.4¢. If every game were a coin flip, winning 4 straight is 6.25%, and books still only have the Brewers at -134 to -140 for Game 4.
History says I'm wrong: 1 of 43 teams down 0-3 in a best-of-seven came back, and none in a World Series. Do you trust the coin, the history, or the price? ?? Time will tell
Prediction markets are underpricing a Fed hike tomorrow.
Kalshi has a 25 bp hike at 6-7¢. Polymarket has it at 7.5%. Fed funds futures (CME FedWatch) say 12%.
Same meeting, nearly double the odds. The futures crowd has real rate exposure on the line. So who's wrong here, the prediction markets or the bond pit? Let’s see
Polymarket can't even agree with itself on the Senate, 8 days out.
Its Senate market has Dems at 64.5%. Its own balance-of-power board adds up to 66.4% (65.5% D sweep + 0.85% D Senate/R House). Kalshi: 63–64¢.
House is the same story: Polymarket 92% D, Kalshi 90.2–90.4¢.
Two points is free money or a liquidity mirage. Which number are you trusting on Nov 3?
The Ballon d'Or market stopped forecasting and started trading rumors.
Mbappé is 21.7% on Polymarket this morning. A week ago he was about 3%. The voting is done and the result is sitting in an envelope, yet the price jumped 18 points.
Kalshi agrees almost to the cent: Mbappé 22–24¢, Kane 68–69¢ (Polymarket 68¢), Yamal 9–11¢ (Polymarket 9.9¢).
Either somebody has seen the envelope, or $70M is chasing gossip. Which is it?