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George Calhoun

@GeoCalhoun520

Director of the Quantitative Finance Program, Stevens Institute of Technology; also Director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Research Center at Stevens

 Washington, DC
forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/?sh=96c340c3483f
Joined May 2020
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The efficient market? It's saying something...
Image from George Calhoun (@GeoCalhoun520)
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The pattern of market behavior around U.S. elections is a well-established market anomaly – the next 3 quarters in the Presidential Election cycle typically concentrate most of the market returns, far outperforming the other 13 quarters in the full cycle. Here's the data... forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
We Just Entered The Financial ‘Sweet Spot’ In The Election Cycle

We Just Entered The Financial ‘Sweet Spot’ In The Election Cycle

If history is a guide, the next three quarters will see a strong stock market.

forbes.com
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Intel is still Too-Strategic-To Fail, and Still a Value Play forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
Intel Is Still ‘Too-Strategic-To-Fail’

Intel Is Still ‘Too-Strategic-To-Fail’

The sell-off is market noise. The fundamental strategic necessity for Intel to be successful, from a national security and a commercial perspective, is still urgent.

forbes.com
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How Binance Is Racing to Cover Losses in the Biggest Heist in Crypto History (WSJ) maybe this will finally kill off this pest – Binance is a joke, and a dangerous one
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The September sell-off in the Treasury market was a “bond massacre” even worse than the famous 1994 episode (the one that impacted Pres. Clinton’s fiscal plans and prompted his aide James Carville to wish he could be reincarnated as the bond market so he could “intimidate everyone”). It was directly triggered by the way in which the Fed maneuvered to defend its inflation-fighting credibility – and the real collateral damage has been enormous.        GC forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
September’s Bond Market Massacre Was Caused By Monetary Policy Malpractice

September’s Bond Market Massacre Was Caused By Monetary Policy Malpractice

The Federal Reserve pays insufficient attention to the non-monetary consequences of its interest rate policies.

forbes.com
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New Fortune Column - The worst month in the Bond Market in over two decades…The Fed is buying “credibility” - and we’re paying for it. fortune.com/2026/10/11/the-h…
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The Federal Reserve raised rates last week for the wrong reason – to show how tough they are. The price trend may be reversing, or may not be, but the prudent move would have been to wait on further information. Posturing is not policy. forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
The Fed Is Making Another Mistake

The Fed Is Making Another Mistake

Inflation may have already started to moderate this summer. The Fed should have held off on rate increases.

forbes.com
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The Federal Reserve’s reliance on “setting interest rates” as an instrument of monetary policy isn’t working. GC forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
The Fed’s Influence Over Interest Rates Is Weakening – As It Should

The Fed’s Influence Over Interest Rates Is Weakening – As It Should

The credit markets have moved in the direction opposite to the Fed's interest rate target adjustments over the past two years. This policy tool may not work anymore.

forbes.com
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This is my inaugural column for Fortune – a combination “critique” and endorsement of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inflation analysis (from the Jackson Hole address this week). fortune.com/2026/08/29/why-t…
Why the Fed is often slow, late… and wrong in reading inflation | Fortune

Why the Fed is often slow, late… and wrong in reading inflation | Fortune

The central bank should pay more attention to the short-term trends that reveal an important "inflation regime  change" may already be underway.

fortune.com
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This week’s “Letter from Beijing” in The New Yorker magazine, describing the recent purge of China’s military being carried out by Xi Jinping, cites the old Chinese saying “Kill the chickens to scare the monkeys” – ie., make a brutal example to get others to fall in line. But the article claims that the purge is so extensive that "now Xi is just killing the monkeys.” This recalls an earlier Forbes column I did in 2021 on the similar campaign waged against the entrepreneurial sector in China (which was also very brutal). That column is still relevant and is redistributed here (with very minor updating). forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
Kill Chicken Scare Monkey (杀鸡儆猴) – Beijing’s Philosophy Of Regulation Won’t Work

Kill Chicken Scare Monkey (杀鸡儆猴) – Beijing’s Philosophy Of Regulation Won’t Work

A "Kill Chicken Scare Monkey" policy is strategically ineffective for achieving China’s larger ambitions. Fear will not inspire the sort of entrepreneurship China needs to cultivate. It will suppress...

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Why the gas shortage panic is misguided... forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
Is The U.S. ‘Gas Tank’ Running On Empty? Are Reported Shortages Real?

Is The U.S. ‘Gas Tank’ Running On Empty? Are Reported Shortages Real?

The latest "oil alarmism" focuses not on the flow of oil – where a glut has developed – but on the possibility that oil and gasoline inventories could run short.

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This is the follow-up to my previous article on gasoline prices. The first installment debunked the "price gouging" theory. This new column provides "the big reveal" ... what the real root cause turns out to be. forbes.com/sites/georgecalho… #IranWar‌ #gasoline
The U.S. Is Awash In Oil And Gasoline. So Why Are Pump Prices So High?

The U.S. Is Awash In Oil And Gasoline. So Why Are Pump Prices So High?

There is a mismatch between the kind of oil the U.S. produces and what our refineries can currently handle. It is the root cause of higher gasoline prices here.

forbes.com
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The Greenspan Legacy forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
Three Ways In Which Greenspan Changed Forever The Way Markets Work

Three Ways In Which Greenspan Changed Forever The Way Markets Work

Greenspan's most important legacy is the impact he had on the behavior of financial markets — e.g. the Greenspan Put which linked Fed policy to stock market performance

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Forbes piece on the Crisis that wasn't... forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
The Oil Market Canceled The Hormuz Crisis Before The Ceasefire

The Oil Market Canceled The Hormuz Crisis Before The Ceasefire

Oil prices eased as ceasefire talks advanced, but markets defused the Hormuz crisis first, rapidly shifting supply and demand and turning a feared shortage into a mini‑glut.

forbes.com
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China vs US -- the hard data, the "unequal footing" – forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
Who ‘Won’ The Xi/Trump Summit?

Who ‘Won’ The Xi/Trump Summit?

China is far behind the US by almost every economic measure. The rivalry is not yet a contest of equals.

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The surge in gas prices is often attributed to “price gouging” – My Forbes column looks at the evidence. forbes.com/sites/georgecalho… #IranWar‌
Is There ‘Price Gouging’ In The Gasoline Market?

Is There ‘Price Gouging’ In The Gasoline Market?

Apparently not. There is no solid evidence of price gouging to explain why America's self-sufficient gasoline market saw prices surge in March.

forbes.com
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My latest Forbes column, on the Hormuz crisis and market risk, driving the volatile moves in the energy markets GC forbes.com/sites/georgecalho… #IranWar‌ #OilTrading
To ‘Price In’ Hormuz, Markets Must Recognize Two Economic Risks

To ‘Price In’ Hormuz, Markets Must Recognize Two Economic Risks

The “game” in the global energy markets right now is about unpacking, understanding and differentiating the diverse components of the risk created by the Hormuz crisis.

forbes.com
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New Forbes column -- on the failure of the hedge funds to "hedge" Epic Fury -- forbes.com/sites/georgecalho…
‘Hedge Funds’ Got Clipped By Epic Fury. They Forgot To ‘Hedge’?

‘Hedge Funds’ Got Clipped By Epic Fury. They Forgot To ‘Hedge’?

“Hedge funds” are supposed to hedge, but nowadays many of them don’t. They were unprepared, and unhedged, when Epic Fury disrupted the markets.

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Here is Part 2 of my Forbes series on the Venezuela situation forbes.com/sites/georgecalho… #VenezuelaLibre #Oil
Venezuela Great Again? Pt 2: The Inevitability Of A Failed Petrostate

Venezuela Great Again? Pt 2: The Inevitability Of A Failed Petrostate

Venezuela's collapse was its fate as a petrostate, with overvalued currency stunting the private sector, and oil volatility undermining the public sector.

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Make Venezuela Great Again? -- But How First of Three Forbes Columns I will publish on this question. forbes.com/sites/georgecalho… #madurodictador #venezuelainvasion
Make Venezuela Great Again? Pt 1: What Happened – The Rise And Fall

Make Venezuela Great Again? Pt 1: What Happened – The Rise And Fall

Venezuela is a failed Petrostate – crippled by inherent distortions of a one-dimensional economy. Rebuilding a "new and improved" Petrostate is destined to fail (again).

forbes.com
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