Team of forensic accountants/analysts on the look out for fraudulent companies. For submissions/tips email [email protected]
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OUR NEW SHORT: $ASTH
We are short Astrana Health, a value-based care company that has grown rapidly through acquisitions and increasingly complex risk-bearing arrangements.
Below is just a summary of some of our opinions about the company; for the full short thesis, including our source work, expert interviews, and important disclaimer regarding our financial interests, please see the GlassHouse Research website.
Our forensic analysis concludes that Astrana’s headline growth dramatically overstates the growth of the underlying combined business. In Q2 2026, reported revenue grew 49% year-over-year, yet revenue declined roughly 1% against the company’s own pro forma combined-company base.
We believe Astrana’s Prospect acquisition created a highly subjective spring-loading reserve setup. In Q2, Astrana recorded approximately $38 million of gross favorable prior-period claims development—more than quarterly pre-tax income. Management says related offsets made the net impact immaterial, but investors are not given the reconciliation needed to independently verify that claim or determine Prospect’s contribution.
Astrana’s earnings depend on a web of estimates and related-party arrangements that we believe deserve far more scrutiny. These include a $545 million insider-linked loan structure, sharply higher expenses with a director-linked hospital system, growing risk-pool receivables, and non-GAAP adjustments that can materially reshape reported profitability.
Management was paid heavily on the same metrics we believe deserve the most scrutiny. In 2025, the CEO received a $2.06 million cash incentive award, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA components paying at 200% of target, even as the company reported a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to acquisition accounting.
We leave many of the more interesting findings, charts, expert commentary, and related-party details for readers of the full report.
Read the full thesis on our website listed on our profile. As always, please read our full disclaimer carefully. GlassHouse Research is short $ASTH and/or related derivatives and stands to benefit if the price declines. The reader should assume GlassHouse covers some or all of its position at time of publication.
Teaching our Catalent short at HBS today!
The question students always ask: how do you hold conviction when the company, the sell-side and the tape are all against you?
Our answer: 🧵
Price action isn't new information. Every time the stock rallied, we asked one question: did anything in the filings change or with the thesis? If not, nothing changed.
GlassHouse Research retweeted
Since our 2022 debate, gold is up 116%. HEX is down 99.6%.
Richard Heart laughed through the whole thing.
Only one of us is still laughing.
So $NVDA gives its customers 60 days to pay their bill, but books the revenue upfront.
$AMZN buys the chips but only books 1/6th of the expense each year as depreciation, even though the chips become worthless in under 3 years.
Nvidia inflates revenue, Amazon understates expenses, and both companies show higher profits, which Wall St uses to increase the forward PE and make the stocks look cheap.
The problem: too many worthless chips accumulating on Amazon's balance sheet.
The solution: SPVs backed by private credit.
Enron didn't hide their Raptors. Amazon is mimicking Enron's playbook, in plain sight of regulators.
Welcome to peak AI mania.
We hope everyone takes a look at our redesigned website and signs up as a subscriber!
Happy Friday!
glasshouseresearch.com
OUR NEW SHORT: $ASTH
We are short Astrana Health, a value-based care company that has grown rapidly through acquisitions and increasingly complex risk-bearing arrangements.
Below is just a summary of some of our opinions about the company; for the full short thesis, including our source work, expert interviews, and important disclaimer regarding our financial interests, please see the GlassHouse Research website.
Our forensic analysis concludes that Astrana’s headline growth dramatically overstates the growth of the underlying combined business. In Q2 2026, reported revenue grew 49% year-over-year, yet revenue declined roughly 1% against the company’s own pro forma combined-company base.
We believe Astrana’s Prospect acquisition created a highly subjective spring-loading reserve setup. In Q2, Astrana recorded approximately $38 million of gross favorable prior-period claims development—more than quarterly pre-tax income. Management says related offsets made the net impact immaterial, but investors are not given the reconciliation needed to independently verify that claim or determine Prospect’s contribution.
Astrana’s earnings depend on a web of estimates and related-party arrangements that we believe deserve far more scrutiny. These include a $545 million insider-linked loan structure, sharply higher expenses with a director-linked hospital system, growing risk-pool receivables, and non-GAAP adjustments that can materially reshape reported profitability.
Management was paid heavily on the same metrics we believe deserve the most scrutiny. In 2025, the CEO received a $2.06 million cash incentive award, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA components paying at 200% of target, even as the company reported a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to acquisition accounting.
We leave many of the more interesting findings, charts, expert commentary, and related-party details for readers of the full report.
Read the full thesis on our website listed on our profile. As always, please read our full disclaimer carefully. GlassHouse Research is short $ASTH and/or related derivatives and stands to benefit if the price declines. The reader should assume GlassHouse covers some or all of its position at time of publication.
We will be publishing a new short idea this morning.
Please sign up for our mailing list on our website if you would like to receive an email notification.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
This is what I’ve experienced for the last couple years now teaching. Colleges need to adapt to heavily proctored tests that make up students whole grades along with attendance.
Everything else will just be cheated on, projects, hw, and group assignments.
arstechnica.com/ai/2026/07/w…
What's going on down under @John_Hempton ???
reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
Prosecutors say Rishi Kapoor allegedly inflated bank balances by millions with single-digit edits — and banks still lent against them.
Crazy to see a “just type a digit in front of the number” fraud in this day and age.
Old-school fraud still hits different. ZZZZ Best vibes.
miaminewtimes.com/news/a-yac…
Exchange Income Corp $EIF.NE $EIF.TO reported record Q1 results: Revenue +30% to $867M, Adj. EBITDA +28% to $166M, Net Earnings +287%, and “record” Free Cash Flow of $120M.
Guidance was also nudged toward the upper end of the 2026 range. Optically very strong. Our structural thesis? Still fully intact. Thread below.
1/8
$600M investment-grade bond issuance and credit facility expansion to $3.5B (now unsecured) provide near-term runway.
Structurally, this reinforces our core point: growth, reinvestment, and the dividend continue to rely on external capital, not durable internal cash surplus.
7/8
Bottom line: EIC printed a record quarter — and in doing so gave investors a cleaner view of the machine.
More aviation concentration, faster inventory build, explicit confirmation of the transfer-to-inventory mechanics, and continued external-financing dependency.
The headline improved. The thesis got sharper.
Full March 2026 report: glasshouseresearch.com/resea…
8/8