Mapping the changing global order. Incompetent leaders. Competing interests. Sleepwalking toward a global war by 2029-30. Uncomfortable truths | Independent
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The US-Iran war looks set to demolish far more than it appears to.
The longer the US stays in this, the higher the odds this stops being a US-Iran war and becomes a Gulf-wide one. Not escalation that threatens Washington or Tehran. Escalation that consumes the entire region.
The GCC economies are already projected to contract by as much as 8.5% this year and that's before this war spreads to the other members of the region.
Wars that don't end on schedule rarely stay the same size. They occupy more geography and more actors, not less. Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Oman - every one of them sits close enough to be pulled in, and none of them are large enough to absorb it without breaking.
It may not be in the very near future but if this drags on, the endgame won't be as simple as US or Iran losing. It's the entire Gulf burning down, taking the global economy with it.
That may sound like overthinking or worst-case scenario building. Right now, it's reading closer to a forecast.
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The headlines say Trump is weighing a ground operation.
I don't think he would commit US troops to it. Not for lack of will. The math is brutal either way. American casualties on Iranian soil would be politically unrecoverable. Four months from midterms, with his approval near the lowest point, a ground war is the one move Republicans can't absorb.
Listen to what he actually said: "We have other people who will do the ground campaign for us".
The Kurdish option was floated back in March, but it never materialized. Turkey killed it before it started. Arming and activating the Kurds is still on the table as a way to tie up IRGC forces at the border. But if not Kurds, it's more likely intelligence assets already inside Iran.
Iran's own supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn't shown his face or used his voice once since March. CIA and Mossad have reportedly been trying to confirm if he's even functionally in charge.
The US was aiming for full regime change as part of the initial plan - partially achieved. Now, with negotiations stalled and Iran showing no sign of folding, the US may aim to dismantle more of the IRGC's command layer through these same assets. That may be the only path left for the US to save face and renegotiate from a position of authority.
That's a quieter war than the one making headlines. It's also the only one that fits the timeline Trump is actually running against.
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: “We will NOT be intimidated, and we are fully prepared to deliver a response BEYOND THEIR IMAGINATION.”
“It was US that, through its own miscalculations, entered this quagmire. Now it is they who must take the steps to SAVE THEMSELVES.”
Qatari negotiators have just landed in Tehran in what appears to be last attempt in avoiding massive escalation in the region.
It seems Pakistan has failed. Even this is a waste of effort.
Iran WILL NOT & US CANNOT cede anything. Maybe a final attempt by Trump to sway midterms.
France’s PM Lecornu has reportedly asked telecom operators to prepare to block TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat & X during riots.
According to a letter dated Oct 22 & obtained by Blast, the block would use DNS filtering & last “a few hours.”
France is losing control of the streets.
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Belgian PM Bart De Wever:
"Even a country like Germany said 'We do not have money to keep funding all new ambitions.' And if Germany doesn’t have money, I can assure you Belgium surely doesn’t have money to fund all new priorities."
Surely, Europe has misplaced its priorities.
Spain’s cybersecurity office has flagged a reportedly ISIS-LINKED WEBSITE urging attacks on police & protesters across Europe.
It names France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, and suggests knives, bombs & vehicles. It calls police easy targets.
Are jihadists planning something?
Google ordered to halt work on 2 AI data centres in Finland.
Reason: it cleared forest before completing the mandatory environmental impact assessments.
Muhos: ~250,000 trees, 330 hectares
Otanmäki: ~150,000 more
How can authorities not be aware of such large deforestation?
Scientists in Japan have found a way to make cancer cells destroy themselves.
They developed a toxin that activates in the presence of carbon monoxide, selectively targeting cancer cells while leaving normal cells unharmed.
The research is still at the lab stage.
Brazilians head to polls in a tight runoff that could shift Brazil to the right & closer to US.
The runoff pits leftist President Lula against right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio defied pollsters in first round. Change coming?
Pentagon has designated Confucius Institutes, China-funded campus cultural centers, a US national security threat.
Hegseth claims 80 “propaganda cells” appeared across 30 universities using different names, & says they’ve been dismantled.
If they rebrand, is designation enough?
Sweden’s government is blocking ChatGPT & Claude on staff computers.
Microsoft Copilot is the only allowed AI. Reason: AI used without an agreement can have “consequences for our information security.”
The line isn’t drawn around the model. It’s drawn around the contract.
Iran's Ebrahim Azizi is threatening to paralyze Israel's water, power, fuel, and mobilization routes in one blow, if Israel & US launch another attack on Iran.
It is a signal that a war, this time, may extend far beyond the battlefield.
Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport announced that its Terminals 1 and 2 will reopen on Sunday.
Terminal 1 will be dedicated to domestic flights, according to Al Hadath.
Well, I’d say avoid the airport, as the Houthis are still striking targets in Saudi Arabia at will.
Houthi missiles intercepted near Mecca.
Saudi Arabia says civil defense teams are “responding” to falling debris after intercepting two Houthi ballistic missiles.
Shrapnel reportedly fell in Wadi al-Mughamas, 21 kms outside Mecca.
Zelensky expects Europeans to keep financing Ukraine's war effort while dealing with freezing winters and exorbitant energy and fuel prices.
He complains that European governments keep making exceptions for oil, gas, diesel, & fertilizers.
Is Europe paying attention?
Merz: We face a massive threat in east of our continent. Russia is trying to destabilize Germany every day. I do not want a return to the darkest periods in the history of our continent.
Someone should remind him that Europe’s darkest chapter was written by Germany, not Russia.
Iran has cut off LPG exports to Pakistan following Islamabad's Border Closure with Iran due to US Pressure.
Almost half of its total LPG imports comes from Iran.
The price of LPG cylinder has doubled within days & could climb further.
Internal tensions are already high, next?
Ursula von der Leyen fled during speech by Slovak MEP @MilanUhrik
"You should be ashamed that, together with Zelensky, you are trying to cheat Europeans out of another €70 billion."
This is EU’s democracy: unelected officials with enormous influence and limited accountability.
Ursula von der Leyen fled during speech by Slovak MEP @MilanUhrik
"You should be ashamed that, together with Zelensky, you are trying to cheat Europeans out of another €70 billion."
This is EU’s democracy: unelected officials with enormous influence and limited accountability.
Merz says Russia’s impact on society worries him more than the economy.
Is this a convenient distraction from the struggling industry, high energy costs & weak growth, all of which directly affect ordinary Germans?
That risks making the AfD look like the more rational one.
India's Commerce Minister @PiyushGoyal brutally fact checked EU panelist propaganda about climate activism.
"India 17% of world’s population but only <3% of CO₂. Europe 3% of population but ~18% of CO₂."
In the west, consumption-based emissions still exceed factory emissions.
India's Commerce Minister @PiyushGoyal brutally fact checked EU panelist propaganda about climate activism.
"India 17% of world’s population but only <3% of CO₂. Europe 3% of population but ~18% of CO₂."
In the west, consumption-based emissions still exceed factory emissions.