Global Forecaster, author, speaker, commentator, advisor on nat security/military, history, geopolitics and financial markets.
Joined January 2011
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I'm in Riyadh this morning.
Seven missile impacts around the airport. We've heard them every day of our visit.
You won't have read about it. But that doesn't mean it's not happening.
War is brewing in the Gulf, in Ukraine, globally. The risks of escalation are acute.
Just because it's not in the Sunday Times doesn't mean it's not real.
davidmurrin.co.uk
Good men must know violence.
Musashi, the seventeenth-century samurai, understood that peace, freedom and civilisation cannot survive on goodwill alone.
Evil flourishes when good people mistake their own peaceful intentions for those of their adversaries.
Freedom is not the natural order of the world. It is an inheritance that must be defended.
The greatest danger to free societies is not the strength of those who threaten them. It is the complacency of those who believe peace can be preserved without the willingness and capability to fight for it.
The purpose of strength is not to wage war. It is to deter it.
Every arms race now runs on shorter kill chains.
Shorter kill chains demand ever more powerful AI.
It’s all very well saying we’ll keep a man in the loop.
But if your enemy doesn’t, and they move faster, you lose.
So who takes the man out of the loop first?
Would Trump go back to bombing Iran once the midterms were over?
A week ago I wrote that the Iran war would restart, and that Trump would use it as a distraction in his fight with Congress after the midterms.
Three days after losing both chambers, he has confirmed new US strikes on Iran’s air defences on Qeshm Island. He calls them “minor”.
His own Defence Secretary wants a full return to war. Watch what comes next.
Why do dark people so often reach power?
Because we project ourselves onto others. Most of us sit inside the normal boundary, so we assume they do too.
They don’t. They operate completely differently, and they use our projections as their camouflage.
We see things as we are, not as they are.
Back in May I warned that an Iranian nuclear breakout would force the US and Israel into “increasingly extreme military options”.
This week, a possible nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain became a serious public discussion for the first time since Nagasaki.
Unverified. The White House has dismissed it.
But the caverns are judged to lie beyond the reach of the GBU-57, and only a limited number are left.
So who read it first?
Read more about my thoughts: davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry…
In May I warned that an Iranian nuclear breakout would force the US and Israel into “increasingly extreme military options”.
Now there is speculation that Trump, under pressure from Netanyahu, is considering a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain.
Unverified. The White House has dismissed it.
But it has forced the first serious public discussion of nuclear use since Nagasaki.
Why? Pickaxe Mountain’s caverns are judged to lie beyond the reach of the GBU-57. Only a limited number are left of the tranche of around 20.
The weapon built to close the gap is still a prototype.
Is a nuclear release really possible?
In May I warned that an Iranian nuclear breakout would force the US and Israel into “increasingly extreme military options”.
Now there is speculation that Trump, under pressure from Netanyahu, is considering a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain.
Unverified. The White House has dismissed it.
But it has forced the first serious public discussion of nuclear use since Nagasaki.
Why? Pickaxe Mountain’s caverns are judged to lie beyond the reach of the GBU-57. Only a limited number are left of the tranche of around 20.
The weapon built to close the gap is still a prototype.
Is a nuclear release really possible?
Did the midterms just break Trump's grip on Washington? Yes. Democrats now control the House and the Senate, flipping at least seven Republican Senate seats, Susan Collins among them.
3 days ago I wrote that the 3 November vote would break the Republican majority, with the House likely lost and the Senate at risk. Both have fallen.
Next comes the constitutional confrontation: executive orders to bypass Congress and a fight over presidential power.
How far do you think Trump will go?
Did the midterms just break Trump's grip on Washington? Yes. Democrats now control the House and the Senate, flipping at least seven Republican Senate seats, Susan Collins among them.
3 days ago I wrote that the 3 November vote would break the Republican majority, with the House likely lost and the Senate at risk. Both have fallen.
Next comes the constitutional confrontation: executive orders to bypass Congress and a fight over presidential power.
How far do you think Trump will go?
Will the American electorate mandate Republicans into the House and the Senate today?
It’s a midterm election. A critical day in American history.
On Sunday I wrote a Murrination called Trump the Anti-President. It defines great presidents and their qualities.
We measured 60 in total.
In stark reality, Trump doesn’t have any of them.
Take the ideal presidential candidate.
Reagan is about as close as it gets.
Now run some 60 measures of an effective president against Trump.
He is the mirror inversion of those great qualities.
So from now on, I'm calling him Trump the anti-president.
#Midterms2026
Trump shuts down Ukraine’s intelligence. Putin steps up his attacks.
It happened in the Kursk region. It happened again over the diesel deal.
Is that coincidence?
You cannot build up military forces and release them spontaneously. Putin knew the shutdown was coming, and he was ready to exploit it.
Trump and Putin are in cahoots to weaken Ukraine.
Want to read more? Pick up Murrinations Gold and read it on my website now:
davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry…
Because an apology is an admission of liability.
Andy Burnham is open to one at CHOGM, plus “structured dialogue” on development funding. Debt-burdened states will use it to extract capital without reform.
Same thinking as the Chagos giveaway. A grievance and a court ruling override hard strategic interests. Diego Garcia is now at risk.
At home, half of Universal Credit claimants have no work requirement.
Grievance is capital. Victimhood is the claim form.
A nation that keeps the guilt and gives up on production is leaving its gates open to its enemies.
davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry…
Want to know what the five predictions are? Out now on my website and Substack.
davidmurrin.co.uk
globalforecaster.substack.co…