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⚠️Portfolio performance as of September 2026
GMI's portfolio has gained +10.85% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500 at +11.77%, the Nasdaq 100 at +20.43%.
Since January 2024, GMI’s portfolio has returned +90.99%, BEATING the S&P 500 by 30.57 ppts👇
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China's stock market is in TURMOIL:
Chinese equities have lost $3.5 TRILLION in market value since their May peak, as the selloff pushes the CSI 300 Index into a bear market.
The downturn comes as corporate earnings continue to rapidly deteriorate, with 2026 earnings forecasts for MSCI China constituents falling more than -4% since the end of March.
The pressure is even greater among Chinese technology companies, with profit projections for the Hang Seng Tech Index cratering more than -13% over the same period.
Companies reporting 3Q results have missed analyst expectations by an average of -9%, putting earnings on track for their 2nd-WORST quarterly miss in 2 years.
Weak domestic consumption, aggressive price competition, and shrinking profit margins are undermining corporate profitability, while the lack of large-scale stimulus offers little relief.
Meanwhile, onshore stock market turnover fell to near its lowest level since July 2025, and margin trading balances dropped to a 1-year low, highlighting weak investor confidence.
China's equity selloff shows no signs of a material recovery in sight.
There is a massive GAP between gold demand and gold prices:
Physical-gold backed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have recorded 14 consecutive WEEKS of inflows. $GLD
This has brought gold ETF holdings to nearly 102 million troy ounces, their highest level since mid-2022.
However, over the same period, gold prices have declined -1%, after rising as much as +16% before falling -14% from their local highs. $GLDM
Long-term gold investors appear to be taking advantage of this accumulation opportunity to hedge against fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the constant erosion of currency purchasing power.
At the same time, short-term gold price movements reflect interest-rate expectations shaped by oil prices and FX movements, as well as technical factors.
Smart money is accumulating gold at a historic pace.
Corporate layoffs are accelerating across the US:
Bloomberg mentions of “job cuts,” “layoffs,” and “firings” jumped on Thursday to their highest level since early May, signaling a renewed wave of workforce reductions.
The latest announcements include American Express planning to cut 5% of its workforce, eBay eliminating 9% of its staff, and Netflix reportedly laying off around 1,000 employees, or 6% of its global workforce.
Companies are increasingly restructuring operations, reducing costs and redirecting resources toward AI, with Oracle alone eliminating 21,000 jobs over the last year.
Overall, US technology companies have cut more than 190,000 jobs in 2026, following 245,000 layoffs across the sector last year.
The trend also extends beyond technology, as businesses seek better organizational structures and greater efficiency, raising the risk that job cuts will continue.
Another wave of layoffs is coming to the US.
The gap between Big Tech spending and cash flow is EXPLODING:
The combined free cash flow of Amazon, $AMZN , Alphabet, $GOOGL , Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT , and Oracle, $ORCL, is now down to -$1.59 BILLION, the lowest in at least 14 years.
This is a sharp reversal from +$6.10 billion recorded in 2026.
Meanwhile, these same companies are projected to spend more than $3 trillion on CapEx over the next 3 years.
As a result, investors expect significantly more debt issuance across the corporate landscape.
This is pushing the cost of 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) on hyperscalers to record highs.
The historic mismatch between cash generation and investment spending is increasingly weighing on Big Tech.
Financial strain is deepening across the riskiest corners of the US credit market:
CCC-rated corporate bond yields surged to their highest level since the 2020 crisis, with the spread differential between CCC- and BB/B-rated debt also widening to its largest since 2020.
At the same time, the extra yield investors demand to hold high-yield corporate bonds instead of safer US Treasury bonds has soared to a 17-month high.
Meanwhile, the volume of leveraged loans trading below 60 cents on the dollar jumped to its highest level since March 2020, while loans trading at or below 80 cents surged nearly +90% over the last 12 months.
The selloff reflects rising borrowing costs, elevated inflation and growing investor concerns about AI-driven disruption, particularly for heavily indebted software, cable and telecom companies.
As investors become less willing to buy new debt and market liquidity dries up, weaker companies face greater difficulties refinancing their loans, while creditors risk recovering less as those companies' default risk rises.
The risk of stress spreading to the broader market is increasing.
Selling pressure across the US technology sector is reaching extreme levels:
Institutional investors have DUMPED tech stocks in 7 of the last 10 trading days.
On each of those sessions, sales exceeded -$1 billion.
Over the last 20 days, sales have risen to -$12 billion, marking one of the most extreme selling periods in the technology sector in recent years, according to Jefferies.
This even surpassed the selling pressure during the Q1 2025 market correction.
Institutional investors are dumping tech at a furious pace.
This is absolutely MIND-BLOWING:
The 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, is down -51% from its October 6th peak.
Meanwhile, the fund recorded +$3.13 billion in inflows this week, following +$6.14 billion the previous week, bringing the two-week total to +$9.27 billion and marking its largest two-week inflow EVER.
$SOXL is now down -72% from its June peak, bringing it close to levels also seen in late 2021.
Over the same period, the fund attracted +$13.6 billion in inflows, mostly from retail investors.
The semiconductor trade is undergoing a brutal reversal.
🔥China is buying a MASSIVE amount of gold behind the scenes:
China acquired +25 tonnes of gold on the London OTC market in August, according to Goldman Sachs projections.
The London over-the-counter (OTC) market is a global hub for gold trading, where banks, financial institutions, and other participants trade gold directly rather than through a centralized exchange.
Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China officially bought +20 tonnes of gold in August, according to World Gold Council data.
Previously, China acquired +35 tonnes of gold on the London OTC market in July, +40 tonnes in June, and +48 tonnes in May.
This was well above the +20 tonnes, +15 tonnes, and +10 tonnes officially reported by the central bank in those respective months.
China is importing significantly more gold than its official reserve disclosures suggest.
Japanese investors are DUMPING foreign bonds at the fastest pace in years:
Japanese investors sold -¥3.43 trillion, or -$21.9 billion, in foreign long-term bonds over the last 5 weeks, their longest selling streak in 4 years.
So far in 2026, they dumped -¥5.18 trillion, or -33.0 billion, the biggest sale for this period of the year since 2022.
This comes as Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen by more than +80 basis points this year, making domestic bonds increasingly attractive and encouraging investors to redirect capital toward the home market.
Meanwhile, foreign investors bought +¥1.45 trillion in Japanese long-term bonds this week, marking their 3rd consecutive week of purchases.
Rising bond yields in Japan are making foreign bonds and equities less attractive to Japanese investors.
AI data center debt is BALLOONING:
US project finance issuance soared to $106 billion so far in 2026, from $37 billion in full-year 2025, driven by data centers and increasingly by chip and computing infrastructure.
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AI spending binge is pushing US tech credit risk to RECORD HIGHS:
5-year credit default swaps (CDS) tied to Meta, $META, surged to a record 119.3 basis points on Thursday.
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