GSP (@GlobalStockPick) header
GSP (@GlobalStockPick) profile picture

Fish where others don't, example: 🇭🇰 , 🇸🇪 , 🇸🇬 , 🇪🇸 , 🇮🇹 CAGR +13%, Aim for margin of safety with rev growth, now also on @Healthstockpick

Hong Kong
Joined May 2016
Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)Photo by GSP (@GlobalStockPick)
Who did this shit lmao
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Modern Dental (3600.HK) has zero sell-side coverage, but a few good accounts like @ReturnsJourney @GlobalStockPick and @GlobalValue17 have talked about it. The issue with unloved HK small caps is that until brokers care, you're mostly guessing on management's roadmap. Smartkarma insight provider Sameer Taneja just got on a call with management to get the actual ground reality: What overseas lab demand really looks like (Europe vs North America) What they plan to do with the cash pile (buybacks vs dividends vs bolt-ons) Whether digital scanning adoption is expanding margins or getting competed away
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$DECK Deckers CEO Stefano Caroti: "HOKA wholesale increased 9% to $444 million, while DTC grew by 4% to $234 million. HOKA continued to perform well across our global wholesale accounts with strong sell-through in domestic and international regions. Consumers are increasingly turning to wholesale partners, both in stores and online to explore and compare brands in multi-brand destinations and HOKA continues to deliver a high degree of full price selling."
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I made a list: Full-Time Stock Pickers on Substack substack.com/@michaelfritzel…
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This is eye-opening. Europe’s share of global tech R&D has collapsed from 23% in 2005 to just 8% today, while the US has climbed to 62% and China has risen from near zero to 15%. South Korea now outspends Germany, France, the UK, and Italy combined in tech R&D. Yep, you read that right. This is the predictable result of policy choices that systematically favor control and redistribution over growth. Layered regulation, data rules, AI restrictions, labor rigidities, and precautionary frameworks, raises the cost and slows the pace of turning ideas into products, forcing companies to spend scarce resources on compliance rather than experimentation. High taxation and expansive redistributive systems extract capital that would otherwise fund private R&D and risk-taking, while shrinking the after-tax reward for building something new and scaling it. The broader left-leaning mindset that prioritizes equality of outcome over dynamism treats entrepreneurial success as something to be managed, taxed, or shared rather than unleashed and rewarded. Places that protect the returns to innovation and keep barriers low continue to pull ahead, attracting talent and capital that Europe increasingly loses. Europe’s relative decline is the cumulative outcome of treating dynamism as a problem to be regulated rather than the engine of prosperity. Without a shift toward lighter rules, lower burdens on enterprise, and greater tolerance for unequal outcomes from unequal effort, the gap will keep widening, and Europe will become an open-air museum for wealthy Americans and Asians.
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Chinese plastic injection moulding machine maker Haitian International's (1882 HK) Jian Ming Zhang might have the best track record of any insider ever: 100% hit rate, with a 38% average 1-year return, according to data from Smartkarma.
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Replying to @ReturnsJourney
Well that assumes getting kicked out of major indices will have no impact on the cost of capital (discount rate in DCFs). That is not realistic. Passive is a large pool of capital and a lot of benchmark-hugging active also won't bother with Indonesia if its small and outside the benchmark. So in that sense, it could have considerable and lasting impacts on valuations through mechanism of higher discount rates (if MSCI follows through which is not yet assured). It won't impact the numerator too much, I agree, but that's only one part of the valuation. Today's 11% sell off is consistent with a higher equity cost of capital of about 1-1.5%. What it will do, however, is increase the return priced into stocks (the discount rate), which if you're a long term, benchmark unaware investor, will be a free lunch. If your patient you will be able to clip an additional 1-1.5% a year (on top of what was already a quite cheap market). Most investors aren't. I am, & personally was an aggressive buyer today.
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What started for me with an email to $OSSD CEO asking who their largest competitor was, I started to look at $KURN Over time I realized Kuros is winning I sold my OSSD shares and held KURN. I think by now we can already conclude the race as over, perhaps $BONEX can put up a fight
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1/3 On Monday I met my old friend Thomas Lehr at the Vienna tour stop of Germanys biggest independent fund advisory Flossbach von Storch. Here are the most important slides of the afternoon. The first shows the massive outperformance of the s&p vs s&p equal weight in the last
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GSP retweeted
Just a snip of headlines 6 months before the internet crash. $ORCL $CRWV $AMD $NVDA $PLTR
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Min och sonens rappduo släpper vår första låt!
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JISOO x SALOMON FW26 CAMPAIGN BEHIND
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For various reasons, AI, life, mood I have not posted for a year, but now Im back with an idea, hope you enjoy it, as always no paywalls, link in my profile - Ak Medical $1789.HK
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Arc’teryx CEO Stuart Haselden: "Exiting wholesale partners who couldn't sell the brand in a full-price, premium manner was a critical part of how we reestablished the brand... What helped unleash that new growth trajectory was taking ownership of the consumer relationship." youtu.be/R_2Vgv-2e_w?si=z4t2…
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Truly terrible times for Treasury investors
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Geely stonk back to 2017 levels, almost 10 years ago, when they started making EVs...😂 Net income back then was usd 1.6bn, today usd 2.6bn. In between, profit went all the way down 80% as the company invested in EV tech etc and after that went back up. Today trades at 6x LTM EBIT 8x PE (kind of multiples for legacy car companies) and 3.3% divi. They are doing great on exports and struggling domestically. --YTD Geely car exports are up 2.7x and now represent 35% of sales volume (and probably close to 100% of profit). But for the EU they are always a brussels tantrum away from changing economics and prospects. --Domestic sales down 23% YTD and 20% in September I owned BYD and Geely starting this year on the bet that domestic market would start recovering. It didn't so I keep sizing down, now almost down to 1/3. Both stocks are down 20-25% YTD same as Chery (and the Hang Seng Tech btw). Li Auto and Leapmotor stocks are down 30-35% YTD, Xpeng down 55%. Great products rough stocks. For now 4% of portfolio until things improve and 0% soon if they get worse.
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Replying to @pandawatch88
Welcome to the dark side! Tencent $0700.HK looks great on a relative basis as Asia's LLM outperformer. It is the only stock where the market still assigns an extremely negative expected value to every penny of capex investment; as META has shown, sentiment can shift quickly.
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Top AI tricks for equity research (1/x):
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🔥 Elekta har blivit en av Stockholmsbörsens mest blankade aktier. Vad säger grundaren och ordföranden Larry Leksell om det? Och är börsen verkligen rätt plats för Elekta? En story från Irak. Å vad tycker han om förslaget om miljardärsskatt? 🤑🔥 Lyssna! open.spotify.com/episode/4Yg…
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