1/20 PROVING THAT BITCOIN IS A LIQUIDITY DECOY WITH SIMPLE DIFF EQUATIONS. “HODL” on to your socks. (a bit technical) ALSO The Fed is semi-lying, in fact, about “We would lose control of interest rates without IOR.” docs.google.com/document/d/1…

💯 And Dimon is showing his hand, bad poker player I'd say. France did a tiny Arb profit, sold for Cash in NY and bought in Europe in 26 operations.

Get real a) The distance of the country asking its gold from Danemark is 300 miles b) In other words the risk perceived is not that the US is attacked, the risk perceived is the US itself. Greenland = Big big mistake c) The Gold is not leased, lent, and the US has ZERO claim on it. So send the stuff or watch your UST yields FAFO

😵‍💫🤣

💯 And Dimon is showing his bad hand here. Not a good poker player.

The Country which pulled its Gold out of the US does not care about lending and does not want to lend its Gold to the US. There is no lending here. So why would it even matter to the US that some Gold which is not the US property would leave the US? It's their Gold and they don't give a fuck.

10/10 I don't think the US gov has yet realized that it has a herd of elephants in the White House oval office as far as the fiscal situation. Elephant one 🐘 Let's never talk about deficit cuts in the US. Elephant two 🐘🐘 Deficit do matter when the trading nation which accumulates the most USD DOES NOT recycle their USD into your debt Elephant three 🐘🐘🐘 Let's pretend that the other nations which do not have a large USD accumulation can pick up the tab. Elephant four 🐘🐘🐘🐘 Let's absolutely ignore that EVs and renewables reduce the need for USD denominated fuel in the very countries that are supposed to pick up the tab. The petrodollar does not exist! Did Bessent get a shift at VanEck?

9/10 I wish the US would have demonstrations in the streets too because Bessent is planning budget cuts without lawmakers' approval (France riots are in large part due to 49.3 article that's coming for those cuts). But I don't think the US can push budget cuts that way. It would be nice though.

8/10 Narrative of attack on Spain is a joke. On France it's not. BUT let's be frank here. If you look at the UK it would be even more serious given their primary deficit, but they did have demonstrations in the streets. France had demonstration recently BECAUSE of a plan of budget CUTS.

7/10 No. What we see is the impact of Japan, and Oil per the long end curve reaction over the last year. Someone send the screen shots of yoy on the long end because the US is not doing best on the move by Japan by any stretch of the imagination.

6/10 But "Hey there is an attack". I guess probably the Netherlands at 44% of Gov debt to GDP is under attack too? VanEck🤦‍♂️🤣 🤡

5/10 SO. Spain GDP growth + primary balance = 2% US GDP growth + primary balance = -0.1% to -0.4% NEGATIVE For 2027. So more than 100% of the US GDP growth will be US gov deficit juicing.

4/10 Now there is an "attack" in Spain according to the VanEck guy. Let's see here, Spain is expected to have maybe a primary surplus of 0.2% in 2027, and GDP growth at 1.8%. The US is expected to have a primary deficit at 2.2-2.5% with GDP growth at 2.1% in 2027.

3/10 The UK is also not "growing moar" either. It actually got hit a lot on the front end due to inflation expectations with Iran war, but less change yoy on the long end. Probably because they are not at this point burying their head in the sand about budget. (This restructuring will not be easy though)

2/10 This has affected other countries in various degrees. And the US is not "growing MOAR" just recently, it hit hard like any Western bonds market.

1/10 Let's stop being silly VanEck. The situation of bonds is this. Japan has radically changed its profile and that is THE ONE Market which is affecting all others in the West. And it'd be nice to know your job. vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerg…

Another fun part with VanEck. Petrodollar? a) No mention of petrodollar and here it's fun because because China has 3% more ground transportation in Q2 with 11% less Diesel Volume and 8% less gasoline, b) Europe is just crossing 30% in EVs in new sales while the mix renewables plus nukes is 48%+ 25% and climbing. c) Now the guy at VanEck did not mention countries like Australia where Nat Gas demand is down 30% in a single year because of renewables... Fuel denominated in what currency exactly?

Well I don't know how that can be the source of flows on the Eurodollar quite frankly if CHina does not recyble. Or maybe CHina lends money to the UK which in turn buys UST? lol

It is warranted. Both BYD and TESLA rely on the coating from Michel Armand and both rely on a technology whose patent was "invalidated" in China and that's why none of those batteries could be sold outside of China until 2022. And that's also why TESLA "pivoted" to mass, they simply could not use the tech outside of China before. So both BYD and TESLA rely on the graphite coating from Michel Armand Michel Armand invented the polymer solid state technology for one reason. Because it was superior to his prior invention of graphite coating or LFP that both BYD and TESLA are trying to improve Michel Armand's coating in LFP by roll-press and mechanical means. Michel Armand improved his own coating battery design in LFP by a radically different battery. Solid state polymer. So everywhere you look , you see him. The other guys are just trying to catch up. Trade accordingly.

Well the guy who invented the LFP is also the guy who invented the solid state polymer. So relax the TESLA's stuff like the Honda's stuff are commandable efforts, but they are stuck with graphite and that's the natural limitation. On top of no ability to participate in the most lucrative bi-directional charging because of low C Pulse value. Either you're good at electrochemistry or you're not.