Author of The Adaptive Innovator | Creator & Host of Scaling Across Borders | Founder | Investor
Livingston, MT
Joined November 2021
- Tweets11.3K
- Following2.5K
- Followers11.2K
- Likes7.5K
Pinned Tweet
Several months ago I launched a passion project called Scaling Across Borders ... a docuseries sharing the stories of founders building in places the world often overlooks.
Today we released the trailer for Season 1: Kosovo.
This small, newly independent nation is redefining what entrepreneurship looks like around the world.
If you will not sell your outcome with complete confidence (reduce cost by X, increase revenue by Y, etc), you cannot sell your product at scale. It’s that simple.
Don’t make buyers connect the dots to value.
Would love differing perspectives on this …
If you have the cash, would you finance a home for your kids at below market rates.
Cash flow for the parents, dollars stay within the estate, better equity and lower rates for the buyer (the child). If my wife and I die, loan is forgiven.
What am I missing?
My latest viewing Muse. It’s good at helping to buy stuff and find recurring charges and cancel them. For real work, it just seems to be lazy and create complexity.
I’ll hang in there but not for much longer. I don’t need help buying things.
Are people really using the term SI after being told we’re the enemy for not using it?
Seems like every tech CEO has … and absolutely no one else.
GOP influencers should definitely continue to use the “blame everything on the boomers” strategy in the mid terms.
Should work amazingly well.
Guess I missed the memo where Trump renamed AI.
And I thought Elon hated Trump anyway?
Man I am confused by this.
Becoming more and more clear to me daily the @AnthropicAI as a company has lost its collective damn mind.
I’m sure there are some great and no doubt brilliant people there but, my God, could you rein in the crazy once in a while?
Here’s one way the big LLMs can start to self regulate. If you have leaders who believe AI has conscious and being, remove them. Do not allow them do work for your company.
This might be a good place to begin to curb the insanity.
“You see, we’ve built this thing. Best case it changes life as we know it, maybe in some good and definitely in some pretty terrible ways. Eventually, it probably turns on us and kills us all.
It will cost trillions in energy capacity that your towns will pay for and likely pollute your water.
Oh, did we mention that you and your children will lose your ability to work because of this thing? There’s that too.
It’s so terrifying we need to be regulated to keep it locked under control because if the thing we built escapes … well … that’s super bad.
Last … we will need a few trillion from your retirement accounts and pensions to keep funding it. Because … you know … China.
Sooooo … we good?”
And this from someone who isn’t even anti-AI! @Austen is right. Never seen PR quite like this.
The anti-AI movement is going to be massive in the near future, and the model providers are walking right into it (and encouraging it). Their PR/comms strategy is so horrendous it’s indistinguishable from sabotage.
On one side you’ll have philosophers trying to give AI rights and AI researchers claiming AI is conscious (whatever that means.)
The Lesswrong/Yud/Stop AI/polycule folks claiming it’s going to kill us all.
Luddite protests around employment, schools fighting brain rot/cheating, “water usage” and data center claims.
Data usage and privacy battles popping up all over.
Regulatory capture and the fight for open models, fighting the US Government and Department of War on how it must use the models in ways approved by the model providers, Chinese companies distilling and open sourcing models.
And you’ll have trough of disillusionment hitting from enterprises that suck at using AI and are spending a fortune but aren’t seeing ROI (most of them).
Right as the AI companies will require more money, data, and compute to win a market they will claim is bigger than the entire US economy today.
Buckle up.
Starting reading here how great Opus 5.5 was and the improvements in the language.
Just tried it again and the (none influencer) verdict = sucks as bad as 5.0 did.
No doubt that the big LLMs are using influencers on here everytime they release a new model.
This cannot be real. (It is.)
A MODERATE risk is in effect in our Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess…
I’m going to piss off the “alcohol is poison” crowd with this one.
I’ve been obsessively tracking my sleep, nutrition, alcohol and recovery for 6 months. And the results surprised even me …
I sleep and recover better after 2 drinks than after zero.
Not marginally better … a lot better.
Compared with nights I drink nothing:
1 drink
Sleep: -4%
Quality: +8%
HRV: +13%
RHR: -3%
2 drinks
Sleep: +2%
Quality: +12%
HRV: +40%
RHR: -5%
Then I hit 3+ drinks and hit a wall … that makes sense.
Sleep: -9%
And the recovery advantages disappear.
To be clear I’m not claiming alcohol is healthy for me or anyone else. This is six months of n=1 data.
But it does make me question one of the most repeated pieces of health advice here … that any alcohol really impacts you for days and kills sleep and recovery.
That simply isn’t what my data says. The relationship looks more like a curve than a straight line.
0 to 2 drinks: surprisingly good.
3+: clearly bad.
So, like so many things on this platform, maybe this isn’t so black and white, good or bad. Maybe it’s about moderation and living life.
The EU’s biggest problem isn’t a lack of innovation or world-class founders … they have plenty. It’s a commercialization, scaling and funding problem. Europe produces great companies, but once they gain momentum, many need foreign capital, usually US, because Europe’s late-stage venture and growth-capital markets are weak.
That lack of funding funding means EU companies have less capital, scale slowly, and often end up raising from foreign investors, and relocating, or being acquired by foreign companies.
Over time, Europe loses not only the company but the talent and wealth creation that would otherwise fund the great European companies.
Having funded numerous EU deals, I can say first hand, it’s horrible. They need to make a radical change.
These are devastating charts. Europe is cooked.
The European tech industry has always lagged America’s. But AI turbocharged the gap, and it’s growing by the day.
As AI starts displacing white-collar labor (in other words, as opex on token spend replaces opex on humans), a growing share of European GDP that used to get reinvested in EU economies will instead flow to US frontier labs and hyperscalers. Euros that used to go into the pockets of the continent’s top-quartile workers will instead be converted to dollars and accrue to the retained earnings of Anthropic, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Google, and Meta.
For European tech companies, there’s no catching up. They’re not even playing the same game, let alone competing on the same field. US hyperscalers are projected to spend over $1 trillion on capex every year for the next three years; OpenAI and Anthropic are going to raise—and burn—hundreds of billions of dollars each.
Meanwhile, the EU—with its onerous regulatory burden, high barriers to entry, weak capital markets, and entrepreneurial brain drain—has:
- zero prominent frontier labs (no, Mistral doesn’t count)
- no organic hyperscalers
- minimal data centers construction, much of it owned by US companies simply trying to comply with EU data regulations
- a startup ecosystem comparable to that of a tertiary US market, at best
The continent that once gave the world steam engines, steelmaking, automobiles, synthetic fertilizer, X-rays, aspirin, nuclear fission, jet engines, and even the World Wide Web isn’t even on the map for the most disruptive technology innovation of our lifetimes.
An entire continent’s economy doomed to the permanent underclass.
It’s tragic. And it’s a tragedy entirely of their own making.
So awesome to see Kosovo playing on an international stage like this. Just left Prishtina yesterday and the party was just getting started. Clearly I left a couple days too early!
Two amazing countries with incredible people! Can’t wait to see them play!
EU airport customs and immigration is hopelessly broken.
HOURS long wait to get in (passed through Munich and Zurich this week and same in both). Even getting OUT of the country took over an hour.
Their “pre registration” machines have at least doubled or tripled wait times. Even transiting an airport on an international flight without entering the country is a nightmare.
Asked airport rep if it’s like this everyday. “Same sh*t every f*cking day, only usually worse than this” (verbatim) was the answer I got.
Just an FYI … If in the middle of a presentation you find yourself explaining the unexplainable by saying “that’s just a Claude thing”, you’ve just announced you never read your own presentation.
Own your work.
Muse is going to change consumer and business spending for good. It’s the gateway drug to agents buying on your behalf.
I’ve gone from “I’m going to experiment for a couple days” to allowing it to buy everything I need in 72 hours. Better experience and more powerful than #amzn