Derek Scully

What would it mean if there is a quick resolution to the Iran war in the wake of the disastrous midterms? Helpfully, the OBR pulled together some scenarios in its recent economic and fiscal outlook Under the 'orderly recovery' scenario, oil prices fall to $55 a barrel in the second quarter of 2027 and 55p per therm in the third quarter Inflation falls to 2.25% in 2027 and GDP growth is 0.5% higher The lower level of inflation 'largely reverses' the decline in living standards The cost of government borrowing is lower across the forecast period In other words it could be transformative for both the economy and Andy Burnham's premiership