You crush your drive on a par 4 and leave yourself 125 yards from the middle of the fairway. You should be licking your chops shouldn't you? You have set yourself up with a one-way ticket to birdie town right? WRONG! From this spot, even scratch players are much more likely to make bogey (or worse) than birdie! THE DATA From 125 yards in the fairway: Chance of Birdie 0 index: 10% 5 index: 8% 10 index: 6% 15 index: 5% 20 index: 3% Chance of Bogey or Worse 0 index: 19% 5 index: 30% 10 index: 41% 15 index: 57% 20 index: 61% From 125 yards in the fairway, a scratch player is almost twice as likely to make bogey or worse than make a birdie. LET THAT SINK IN! A 5 index is nearly four times more likely to make bogey or worse! LET THAT SINK IN! A 15 index is over 11 times more likely to make bogey or worse! LET THAT SINK IN! Par is always a great score. Do we love birds? Yes.... ...but the key to lower scores is less bogeys, less doubles, and less others! (data from @ArccosGolf)