40 years of experience, plenty of hard hits along the way, and now gloved up to power-punch market folly, Fed lunacy, and political stupidity.
USA
Joined April 2022
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David Hay retweeted
Wait...there's a bigger threat to markets than the "giant mindless robot" of passive capital flows going into reverse?
David Hay @Haymaker_0 thinks so. And it's a threat practically no one is focused on
To learn what it is, watch: youtu.be/hUd9vt6GNNk
David Hay retweeted
This signal has flashed only 2 times since 1960
Both times, stocks rose by +20% first, then crashed
Things are about to get absolutely crazy
A thread 🧵
David Hay retweeted
The Fed gave us a clear ‘signal’ that wasn’t ‘noise’ today. The 4.4% unemployment rate call for year-end would take it 100 basis points above the cycle low. Back to 1948, that has never happened without an NBER-defined recession. By the time the jobless rate rises this much, the recession has already been in play, to everyone’s surprise each and every time, for five months on both a mean and median basis. The dot plots are still at two cuts for this year, but the historical record suggests that we are going to see a lot more because if past is prescient, the recession nobody believes will rear its ugly head will materialize as early as July. Buy bonds on (price) dips.
David Hay retweeted
Over the next four years, $28 trillion of the $36 trillion National Debt matures. Financing current deficits will add another $10 trillion. There is no way the U.S. can sell $38 trillion of Treasuries with a 4% handle. So either we pay 6% or more, or the Fed has to buy it all.
David Hay retweeted
Now there is another reason to bring manufacturing back to the United States. A lot of crypto millionaires are going to need jobs.
David Hay retweeted
Reminder that:
a) Stock comp at just 4 big tech co's alone (NVDA, GOOG, META, AAPL) = 10% of California's budget 👇
b) $65 oil is $25 < Saudi's fiscal breakeven.
I.e., On current course, both California & Saudi will soon be competing with Bessent selling lots of LT USD bonds.
David Hay retweeted
BREAKING: US dollar has just broken down from a head and shoulders topping pattern
This could be a major tailwind for risk-on assets
David Hay retweeted
Reagan could “front-load the pain” b/c his predecessors had already devalued US debt/GDP from 110% in 1946 to 55% by 1951 (via real rates that bottomed at -13%), & then down to 30% by 1980.
“Front-loading the pain like Reagan” with 120% debt/GDP = economic amputation at the neck
David Hay retweeted
Cold feet? US RE investors bought 47,004 homes in Q4, lowest level for that time of year since 2016 & down 3.9% YoY, biggest decline in a year...cautious about buying RE to flip & try to earn a profit. Rents have plateaued after apartment construction boom
redfin.com/news/investor-hom…
David Hay retweeted
STILL blaming it on the weather. (Psst! Online spending tanked in January…)
“Inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell 0.5%, marking the biggest monthly decline in almost four years amid extreme winter weather after a robust holiday season.”
@business
David Hay retweeted
if you think we are in a stock market correction now, just wait until credit spreads wake up. They haven't blinked yet. lol.
David Hay retweeted
With this, we’ve surpassed two first months of 2024, with 29 filings of companies with $50M or more in liabilities (Count of filings in 2024 for all of 2024 was 28).
🚨 BANKRUPTCY FILING ALERT 🚨
FORREST MACHINING LLC
Chapter 11 - District of Delaware
Filed: February 26, 2025
Case No. 25-10294
📊 Assets: $10M-$50M | Liabilities: $50M-$100M | Total Creditors: 100-199 | Industry: Aerospace Manufacturing
Filing Summary
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Forrest Machining LLC, a Valencia, California-based aerospace manufacturing company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware. The company operates from facilities at 27756 Avenue Mentry and is a subsidiary of Dynamic Aerostructures LLC, which also filed for bankruptcy protection along with Dynamic Aerostructures Intermediate LLC.
The company's largest unsecured creditor is AMI Metals Inc. with a claim of approximately $954,000, followed by Fives Machining Systems Inc. ($337,000) and two Rexford Industrial entities with combined claims of approximately $554,000 for landlord obligations.
The filing appears driven by financial distress in the aerospace manufacturing sector, with the company indicating no funds will be available for unsecured creditors after administrative expenses are paid. The company's ownership structure includes Endeavour Capital Fund VIII, L.P. as the majority owner with an 81.09% stake.
PROFESSIONALS
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• Legal Counsel: Chipman Brown Cicero & Cole, LLP
• Investment Bankers: [Retained but not specified]
• Restructuring Advisors: [Retained but not specified]
David Hay retweeted
This has been a year of dramatic market divergence. The Mag 7 names are down 10% since hitting their peak on Dec. 17. But Tesla is responsible for a significant amount of that decline, down 37%, while Meta is up 6%. The equal weight S&P index is up in the period.
David Hay retweeted
Gold dips and is instabought. Even the smallest selloffs are met with a BTFD rush, in this case brief dip below $2900 sparks buying sending it unchanged in minutes. Meanwhile, another 71K ounces are delivered to the Comex where total holdings are just shy of all time high
